tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17404035545252309702024-03-18T08:34:13.092+05:30Saeed NaqviSaeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.comBlogger718125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-59367831261221084562023-12-14T17:29:00.000+05:302023-12-14T17:29:07.712+05:30Differences With US On Gaza As Israel Lobby Works Over Time<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Differences With US On Gaza As Israel Lobby Works Over Time</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed
Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">A brutal tragedy is being played out on an epic scale between Israel and
Gaza. Though the scale is truly epic, it still constitutes but a sub plot in
the cosmic drama of a hegemon’s fall, to describe which Milton’s description on
another epochal fall is apt:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">“From morn till noon he fell,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">From noon to Dewey eve.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">This is a particularly poignant moment for the US because at least two
of its stellar proteges are at risk. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
is riding a tiger. Should he dismount, he will be devoured – so he must
continue pounding a hapless people.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">The other protégé, Volodymyr Zelensky is running around, cap in hand: “Please
Sir, may I have some more.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">The genocidal war continues but US would not like to be seen to have
pressed for a ceasefire without terminating Hamas. The absurdity of this war
will dawn on Tel Aviv and Washington when the guns fall silent, because Hamas will
still be there possibly more rejuvenated.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">In Elia Kazan’s Viva Zapata, named after the Emiliano Zapata who led a
peasant revolt against a corrupt Mexican landlord, the army surround the hero
(played by Marlon Brando) and pump a hail of bullets in him to make absolutely
certain in their state of funk that Emiliano is dead. In a symbolic last shot
Kazan focuses his camera on Emiliano’s trusted white stallion dancing in the
hills. The Idea of Zapata will ride on.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">Netanyahu and his fearsome right wing make rational debate impossible. US
displeasure matters not a jot to them because Israel, by their lights, is not
protected by the US. It is protected by books of the Old Testament contained in
the Torah.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">This reminds me of a huge distortion in the Idea of Israel that has
always puzzled me. The projection of the conflict in Israel in Muslim-Judaic terms
is patently false.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">In Andalusia, Spain, Jewish philosophers like Maimonides who complied
the Mishneh Torah, were much celebrated during the long Muslim rule. During the
“Reconquista” when Muslims and Jews were hounded out by the Inquisition, Jews
found refuge in Morocco, where the Royal Palace to this day invites representative
form the world Jewry for an annual jamboree. I interviewed the second most
powerful man in the Kingdom, Andre Azoulay, a Jew, principal adviser to the
King.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">This explained photographs of King Hasan V on the walls of many
Sephardic Jews in Jerusalem. This is only one of the social habits which
separates Sephardics from the Ashkenazi Jews who migrated from Europe and
Russia. They control most of the levers of state power. Prime Minister Menachem
Begin was leader of Irgun the avowedly Israeli terrorist organization
responsible for blowing up the British headquarters at Jerusalem’s King David
hotel killing 96 British subjects in 1946.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">This digressive flourish simply to provide perspective. And now that
president Biden is unequivocal that Israeli bombing of Gaza is “indiscriminate”
I suspect he has gone as far as he can. But will the Minister of Defence, Yoar
Gallant and Minister for Internal Security Ben Gvir take note? Their support
base flaunts Biblical guarantees to neutralize most US advice which moderates
hardline “Bibi” Netanyahu’s position.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">Very often Washington has to look over its shoulders at the all powerful
Israel lobby before outlining serious policy options on Israel. John
Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt’s classic “The Israel Lobby” is strewn with
nuggets on the Lobby’s extraordinary influence. An American participant at Camp
David in 2000 told the authors: “Far too often, we functioned as Israel’s
lawyers.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">It is established beyond the shadow of a doubt that on matter relating to
Israel, the Lobby can trump any policy. Remember how Barack Obama’s opposition
to a Netanyahu visit was thwarted: the Israeli Prime Minister sailed over the
president’s head and addressed a joint session of Congress.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">Biden’s words of caution to minimize civilian deaths have been largely ignored
during the current Israeli brutalities. In this operation as in previous ones,
Israel derives its impurity largely from the Lobby’s capacity to manipulate the
US establishment.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s signal to Netanyahu two weeks ago
was clear: you must complete the operation of “destroying” Hamas within limited
time. Civilian deaths on this scale are leading to a collapse of support worldwide.
The ground situation shows Dresden like destruction, but there is no evidence
of Hamas having been destroyed.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">To the contrary, the Chief Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards
Corps, Major General Hossein Salami says Israel are in a “quagmire” because “Palestinian
youth” are adopting new methods. “So far 180 of their 1,600 tanks have been
destroyed.” The number of dead Israeli soldiers is in three digits.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">This is a do or die situation for Israel as well as its patron, the US. Vladimir
Putin, whose nose the West was determined to rub in the dust ever since the “Special
Operations” began in Ukraine on 24</span><sup style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">th</sup><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;"> February, 2022, looked none the
worse after nearly two years of military operations, even as he visited Saudi
Arabia and UAE and received Iran’s President Raisi in Moscow. Meanwhile a high
powered EU delegation, European Council President, Charles Michael and European
Commission President, Ursula Von der Leyen trooped in to meet President Xi
Jinping and implored him to use his influence in Moscow to end the conflict in
Ukraine.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">Just when Ukraine and Gaza were both looking unmanageable, Nicolas Maduro
has opened up a front claiming 61,000 km oil and gas rich disputed Essequibo
enclave on the border with former British colony, Guyana.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">Venezuela is right under the US’s nose. Moreover, just a year ago
Washington had produced from its hat one Guan Guaido as its preferred President.
The country is oil rich, you see. The eager beaver initiative was abandoned
because it was so patently childish. Now Maduro’s move has invited a tepid
response from Secretary of State Blinken. He turned up in Guyana but said not a
word about the disputes. President Trump’s Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
once famously thundered. “The Monroe doctrine is still alive.” Really?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-85136825226839641012023-11-30T12:19:00.000+05:302023-11-30T12:19:06.756+05:30Post Gaza Query: Israel In New World Order Minus The Hegemon?<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Post Gaza Query: Israel In New World Order Minus The
Hegemon?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">When the dust
settles on the Israel-Gaza war, Israel will be confronted with an existential
question: should it redesign itself to harmonize with the region and beyond? Or
continue in old, exceptional ways?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The exclusive
Israeli-style vengeance witnessed in the 51 days of bombardment, a jaw for a
tooth, was possible only with the US hegemon standing four square behind all of
Israel’s actions.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The situation
today is this: BRICS are standing firm while G7 are falling apart even the issue
of the Israel-Gaza conflict. A target must quickly swim into their ken to keep
the G7 in anxious huddle.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">What might
this target be? Who knows Islamic terror may well spiral upwards from the ashes
of Gaza. This is a plausible line of speculation. An initiative to resurrect
Islamic menace has already been taken by Noor Gilon, the Israeli Ambassador to
New Delhi. With considerable alacrity, he has sought to enlist India’s support
for the project by fulfilling his end of the bargain: Israel has recognized
Lashkar-e-Taiba as a terrorist organization. It has thereby poked two fingers
in Pakistan’s eye. This, the Israelis assume will please New Delhi so much that
it may be moved, by way of reciprocation, to proscribe HAMAS as a terrorist
organization.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In other
words, Israel proscribes Pakistan based LET as terrorist but India shirks from
casting HAMAS in similar terms. Some may not spot the non sequitur. The media,
particularly in the West, in its current form must not be expected to insert
the umpteen arguments New Delhi may have for its equivocation. Israeli ambassador’s
initiative falls far short of the florid imagery employed by the Ukraine
ambassador to describe Russian troops in Ukraine: “Like Moghul massacre of
Rajputs.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The Israeli
initiative came at a time when HAMAS was more in the news than ever before but
so was Gaza, with optics so horrible as to make the Israeli sales pitch
unbelievably insensitive. Across the globe, television viewers in countless
millions, see HAMAS and Palestinian resistance as one. It must all be extremely
embarrassing for Mahmoud Abbas, the notional leader of the Palestinian
authority whom US and Israel hope to foist as leader, quite incongruously, of
men holding wounded babies in their arm, women carrying their meagre belongings
to few know where, bombed hospitals and scenes of horror like Dresden in the
movies. Those bearing the pain don’t know Abbas.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The idea to
resurrect Islamic terror as the last ditch effort to patch up a crumbing world
order has many takers but credit for its earliest authorship goes to former
British Prime Minister, Tony Blair. He was fiercely opposed to picking quarrels
with Russia because that would divide Europe, he argued. Islamic extremism
attracts a wider coalition which, according to him would include Russia and
China. After all, the last two countries had their own “Muslim” problems in the
Caucasus and Xinxiang.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In disgrace
for having fudged an official document to go to war in Iraq, Blair persisted
nevertheless: the West will pay a heavy price for not entering the war in Syria,
he warned.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Blair was a
holdover from the George W. Bush era, the Sole Superpower moment. In fact the
Anglo-saxon trio of Bush, Blair and Australian Prime Minister John Howard were
in the vanguard promoting post 9/11 Islamic terror as a suitable substitute for
the vanished Soviet Union cast as the enemy to sustain Western cohesion. AUKUS
has the same three in concert. The concept seemed valid until the fall of
Lehman Brothers in 2008. Francis Fukuyama’s End of History proved wrong.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Antecedents to
the post 9/11 Islamophobia could be traced to 1973 Yom Kippur war when the
Arabs did so well as to give the Gulf States the self confidence to quadruple
the price of oil. Pockets bulging with petro-dollars, the Shaikhs of Araby
turned up in London to see the rain. Savoy and Dorchester hotels had “full
occupancy” notices hanging in the lobby, all booked by the Shaikhs. Marks and
Spencer had signs in Arabic. Savile Row oversold. Anti Christ had entered the
citadel. To get even, publishers gave hefty advances to V.S. Naipaul and Salman
Rushdie for Among the Believers and Satanic Verses.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The booming
economies of the Gulf States attracted Indian labour primarily from Kerala. The
State’s neat, austere skyline began to be dotted with garish “Dubai houses”.
Resentment at Muslims (mostly) acquiring new prosperity spilt over into
communalism. This coincided with Gen. Zia ul Haq beaming Nizam e Mustafa from
Pakistan, tremors from the Meenakshipuram conversions – all boosting
communalism locally which was, in due course, to tie up with global
Islamophobia, one reinforcing the other.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It was thick
saffron on which Narendra Modi climbed to power in Gujarat in October 2001. On
October 18 that year began US fireworks over Afghanistan. The media space was
saturated with rocket attacks on Kabul, boosting Islamophobia sky high. Under
this canopy, the Gujarat pogrom of February 2002 appeared to have international
endorsement. Hindutva basked in the thought that the war on terror would help
it prosper. But it was soon noticed that war on terror created more terror.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Egged on by
the neo-cons seeking comprehensive global dominance, Washington’s lightening
war on terrorism began with Afghanistan. It ended ignominiously with the
messiest departure from a country the US had occupied for 20 years.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">By now the
decline of the US, rise of China, emergence of a multipolar world, weakening G7
and an expanding BRICS were all causing anxiety. After the Afghan debacle,
westward expansion of NATO upto the Ukraine-Russia border became the
provocation for another war. Russia would be brought down on its knees, Putin’s
nose would be rubbed in the dust and, willy nilly, a victory would be
manufactured to resurrect the hegemon. Alas, victory eluded the US once again.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">All of this
imbues the current round between Israel and Gaza with consequences way beyond
the immediate. Either a beginning towards a two-state solution softens the Arab
view of Israel. Or Israel continues looking for support for all its tantrums by
a hegemon which is in retreat.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-10154560616523612542023-11-06T19:00:00.000+05:302023-11-06T19:00:13.104+05:30Decoding Nasrallah’s Speech And Blinken’s Frenetic Diplomacy<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;">Decoding Nasrallah’s Speech And Blinken’s Frenetic
Diplomacy</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The speech
last Friday by the Hezbollah Supremo, Hassan Nasrallah, arguably the most
popular leader in the Arab street, has evoked mixed responses. The less
familiar with the caverns of West Asian affairs expected the speech to be a
precursor of greater fire power in support of Hamas to deter more Israeli barbarity
being visited on the Palestinians in Gaza.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">This view
obscures the reality that more firepower will only aggravate the suffering of
Gaza without promise of any alteration in the direction of events. It is the
new direction that Nasrallah is interested in.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Nasrallah’s
reputation is not built on his eloquence and rhetoric alone but on his
credibility: he does what he says. He demanded an immediate ceasefire to end
the unspeakable suffering of Palestinians. He talked of the “constructive ambiguity”
embedded in his statement. What could that be? He was clear that all options,
which presumably includes full scale war, were on the table.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Delay in
ceasefire augments the ranks of martyrs and lights prairie fires of revulsion
against Israeli barbarity encouraged by the US wherever people watch
television. In other words, the publicity war has been lost – and losses will
mount unless Israel cuts its losses. What will follow a ceasefire? All denominations
involved have their preferred scenarios for the Day of Judgement.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Moves on the
regional chessboard by the US have been reactive, not innovative at all. At the
September G20 summit in New Delhi, the US launched the idea of a New Delhi,
Saudi Arabia, Israel, Europe corridor modelled quite unabashedly on China’s
Belt and Road initiative.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The initiative
to be credible required a Riyadh-Jerusalem rapprochement. This was problematic because
a completely contradictory rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran had already been
put in place under Chinese auspices. Saudi strongman Mohammad bin Salman would
have to be unbelievably fickle to unclasp Tehran’s hand and, like a trapeze
artist, clasp Tel Aviv’s.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">This is not
what was happening in any case. MBS, as the Saudi Crown Prince is called, has
evolved impressively in statecraft from his earlier brash days. He was not in
the deal at the behest of the US for a blind date with the Israelis. He would
have spelt out conditions for normalization. In spelling out conditions he
would have taken into account Iran’s firm stand on Palestine. The October 7 startling
attack by Hamas and Israel’s horrendous retaliation has clearly ensured the
closure of the America’s Saudi-Israel file – for the near future atleast.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">With the
expiry of the initiative, the post October 7 scenario with global public
opinion ablaze against the Israeli-US duet, groups other than Hamas who are
harvesting wide sympathy are all associated with Iran, Hezbollah, and a web of
Popular Mobilization Fronts like Hashd al Shaabi in Iraq and their look-alikes across
Syria, Yemen, Lebanon. These militias had been knit together by the late Iranian
Commander Qasim Suleimani. Such a menace had these militias become that western
intelligence had to eliminate Suleimani by a drone attack outside Baghdad
airport in January 2020. Suleimani was the author of the kind of military
preparedness which Hamas demonstrated in its attack. The secrecy and the
professionalism are all derived from Suleimani’s book.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Since the
success of the Islamic revolution in 1979, the West has harboured an interest
in playing up the Shia-Sunni divide for its own and Israel’s advantage. At one
stage even thinkers like Henry Kissinger advanced the thesis that the Arab world
was exhausted with the Palestinian issue. It was much more focused on the
Shia-Sunni divide. Without much attention to detail, the media propounded the
idea of “a Shia arc” which encircled Israel </span><span style="font-family: "Arial Black", "sans-serif"; font-size: 13pt;">–</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> Iran, Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria
and, incongruously, Hamas which is anything but Shia.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Hamas is an
extension of the Muslim Brotherhood. Mohammad Morsi of the Brothers was removed
as Egypt’s Prime Minister by a coup in 2013 and General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi
installed instead, after some wrangling between the State Department and the
Pentagon. Morsi was removed for two reasons – Muslim Brotherhood’s continuity
from Cairo to Gaza was a “threat to Israel’s Security.” Also, the Saudis were
having kittens with the rise of the Brothers in the most powerful Arab country.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Egypt is not
exempt from the unprecedented anger in the Arab street, and basement, at the
inhuman pounding of Gaza by Israel. Sisi, therefore, must be an extremely anxious
man today.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It is understandable
that in an atmosphere of mass anger, meeting President Biden would have been
the kiss of death for Arab leaders. Normally Secretaries of State paved the way
for Presidential meetings. In a strange reversal of roles, Biden having drawn a
blank with his favoured Arabs, Anthony Blinken is hopping from one Muslim
capital to another to retrieve an irretrievably lost glory.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">What is the
theme of Blinken’s frenetic activity? Iran, Hezbollah and, indeed, the Shia arc
will be cajoled and threatened not to expand the conflict. Nasrallah was specific
that all scenarios are possible if the pummeling of Gaza does not stop. Expansion
of the conflict will also draw in powers from outside the region.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The backdrop
to Blinken’s diplomacy is the unannounced reversal in Ukraine. US’s continued
role in Ukraine is more an evidence, of its deep pockets than its capacity to
deliver victory to a demoralized Zelensky.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It is commonly
accepted that the US will now onwards be one among equals in a multipolar world
with a proviso – it remains militarily the world’s most powerful country.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">One consequence
of US’s new condition may well be isolationism. This would depend on the turn
competition with China takes. Israel’s greatest worry is US isolationism, its
attention focused elsewhere. Israel is secure so long as it continues to be
Imperialism’s outpost in West Asia.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Clearly,
Blinken would like to bring together Sunni Arab states into a responsible role
in Gaza. But can these moves be in harmony with the outraged public opinion in
the Arab world?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">How can the
present public mood be kept in alignment with the continuation of, say, Sisi and
Mahmoud Abbas, two individuals on whose heads redundancy looms.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-22325107022987201022023-09-01T18:27:00.000+05:302023-09-01T18:27:20.626+05:30Putin, Jinping Not Attending G20: Modi Sole Voice of Global South?<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Putin,
Jinping Not Attending G20: Modi Sole Voice of Global South?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The absence of Vladimir Putin and Xi
Jinping from the G20 Summit opens the field for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to
play the sole voice of the “Global South”. Given his talent for choreography,
he will rise to the occasion. Indeed, Modi will make it an event more
spectacular than Independence Day at the Red Fort when he walked down the blazing
red carpet with athletic bounce.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">His media advisers will anguish over a
different matter: how to balance his solo performance with the state visit of
President Joe Biden, the world’s most powerful man struggling not to be seen in
decline. The G20 will be his event too.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The twin events, in days of yore, would
be an editor’s nightmare. President Kennedy shot dead in Dallas. This coincided
with an Indian tragedy: five generals of the Indian Armed Forces died in a
copter crash the same day. Editors anguished: which story should they lead
with.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">No such anguish in store for the editors
today. They have been downgraded by the channels. The channels will receive
instructions from the minions of the master choreographer. It will be
fascinating to see how anchors conceal their obsequiousness.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Once the dust settle on the G20, both,
Modi and Biden, will be staring at their 2024 election prospects. Biden’s
deadline is fixed: elections in November, next year. It is ofcourse a matter of
interest whether Biden will be able to bag the Democratic nomination.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Modi by now is an expert handler of
American Presidents. He has come a long way from the early “Barack, Barack”
days when someone tried to drape him in a pinstripe suit with his name
embroidered in between the stripes.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">At the “Howdy-Modi” event in Houston,
2019, he was audacious enough to put his arms around the then President Donald
Trump and proclaim “Abki baar, Trump Sarkar”. Which meant that his “hope” for
the 2020 US election was that Trump would win.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Trump didn’t. Indeed, when Biden won, Pundits,
generally off the mark, thought the new President would be cold to “Modi”. The configuration
of global power play since the US’s messy withdrawal from Afghanistan and rank
miscalculation in Ukraine has placed India in a sweet spot: it is wooed by the
US as well as Russia. Since Russia and China are sworn to a friendship with “no
limit” Modi may be tempted to take temporary risks with China. Russia will be
expected to bridge the New Delhi-Beijing distance should it increase, say, in
the context of the Biden visit.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Washington’s wishlist from the Summit
would include a mention of Ukraine in the final communique, a statement by Volodymyr
Zelensky at least virtually, give Modi’s dexterous navigation between BRICS and
QUAD a nudge towards the grouping designed to encircle China.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">New Delhi too will be reading the fine
print of US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen’s talks in Beijing. On her heels,
virtually, was Commerce Secretary, Gina Raimando, looking very chastened as she
engaged her Chinese counterpart. Not to be left behind was James Cleverly,
British Foreign Secretary. The Beijing-Washington traffic is soaring. Military
intentions are not on show. Even containment should be made of sterner stuff.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">What then, does one make of all the
anxious punditry coming out of US think tanks that the US is making a bad bet on
India if it imagines that the country will ever be part of military action
against China. The grouse in these US circles is that the word “alliance” is
anathema to New Delhi. Washington on the other hand does not feel secure enough
with terms like “partnership”, within which even “interoperability is taboo. The
fear is that New Delhi will tease but not go to bed. After the consistent
Washington-Beijing exchange of high level visits, in the bargain in any case is
not a commitment in perpetuity. This three way pirouette is as much a test of
affections as of stamina.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The outcome of the summit as well as the
crucial bilateral visit will be determined not by what happens but how the
western media plays up the event. It must project Biden carrying away a bagful
of goodies. What will these be?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Much greater urgency attends what Modi
is seen to be carrying away. For the first time in the recent past will an
Indian Prime Minister be projected by the media, which is already in his thrall,
as one at ease and familiar with the world’s most powerful leaders? Will Modi
come across with a sufficiently stellar performance enabling him to advance the
date of the 2024 elections. He will thus be able to avoid head winds that
possible defeats in the four state elections might generate.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It is another matter that for the first
time since World War II, that halo which marks the most powerful will be absent.
Indeed the leaders will look as diminished as the collective West does and which
has been in decline since the financial crisis of 2008.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Pick them out one by one, beginning with
France’s Emanuel Macron. Just consider the egg on his face in Francophone Africa.
Burkina Faso, Mali now Niger, one coup after another. The US has a military
base in Niger. What for?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa
invited 35 African countries to the recently concluded BRICS summit in
Johannesburg. The leaders acquainted themselves with the rapid expansion of
BRICS as their emancipators from the colonial, hegemonic world order which filled
western coffers and left Africans in poverty.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">As focus turns to Africa, a new
colonial, imperial chapter is opening up. We are told that western troops in Africa
were fighting Islamic terrorism. Really, or were they supervising western loot?
The US had built a $110 million drone base in Agadez, Niger. It is the largest
drone base in the world. Over 1,000 US soldiers are deployed in the country. All
this exertions to fight ISIS and Al Qaeda?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Why do these coups resonate well with the
people? In Niger, thousands turned up to register for army duty as demanded by
the coup leaders.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-73678798948120317722023-08-25T19:18:00.000+05:302023-08-25T19:18:19.915+05:30Why Putin Will Not Attend G20; Will Xi Jinping?<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Why
Putin Will Not Attend G20; Will Xi Jinping?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It was known that President Vladimir
Putin will not attend the G20, but will Xi Jinping attend? Let me take up Putin
first:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Putin did not attend the Bali Summit
last November. The reasons that kept him away from that meeting have not gone away.
Why then would he have acted differently on this occasion?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov,
attended in his place. When he got up to speak, participants from the West
walked out. The western media, in the drill for just such an event, took the
focus away from all the wonderful things Indonesian President, Joko Widodo was
planning for his guests.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Putin is a target in another league. He has
been thoroughly demonized, painted in the most lurid colours as one whom
Senator Lindsay Graham wanted to be assassinated and who the US President
himself called “butcher, butcher...” so many times that this security staff were
sprayed. Putin’s appearance would have inspired the media to a higher level of
defilement. Never mind if the next morning serious G20 events appeared in very
small print. Putin would have been splashed all over looking like Mephistopheles.
So, just as well he skipped the meeting.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">For the New Delhi summit President Joe
Biden has already announced his participation. Indeed, he is arriving a day
earlier. He will have enough time to twist Modi’s arm. Biden and his cohorts had
more or less given notice that should Putin as much as peep into the summit
through a crack in the door, they will raise such hell that Narendra Modi’s
party will be spoilt.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">There is sufficient trust between Modi
and Putin that the latter’s non appearance will be seen for what it is. This outcome
will also demonstrate a certain ambidextrous finesse on New Delhi’s part:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Sheikh bhi khush rahe<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Shaitan bhi naraaz na ho<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">(Pleasing God without offending the devil)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The takeaway for Putin is the non
mention of Ukraine in the final communique. European diplomats, with the Germans
taking the lead, had tried every trick, at every level in South Block, to
somehow insert Ukraine in the final document.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Even psychological games were played. “Indian
position on Ukraine is changing” went the whisper in the galleries. Before this
one had subsided, another rumour was floated, “Russian position is changing so
a mention of Ukraine in the final document will be appropriate.” South Block
has most skillfully walked through the minefield.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Regardless, the pressure from the West
is relentless. “Can Volodymyr Zelensky be invited?” or “can he atleast make an
appearance?”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Enabling Ukraine’s President to
gatecrash into summits is not just an imaginary happening. The script was
played out at the summit of the G7 at Nagasaki. Japan at the outset apparently
said “no”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">President Emmanuel Macron of France has
mastered the art of playing both sides of the street. Not surprising then that
an official, French aircraft landed at Nagasaki with the embattled President of
the Republic of Ukraine, Zelensky, holed up inside. Zelensky was not
embarrassed; he appeared at the summit.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Similar maneuvers are on to give him
entre at the New Delhi venue too. Modi, a master choreographer, is not going to
allow any amount of arm twisting to spoil the décor of his show. But supposing
he is presented with a fait accompli: Zelensky has been delivered at the main
gate by, say, the Germans. Will the gate remain shut?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Xi Jinping’s arrival or non arrival is a
different story. Modi and the Chinese leader met on the margins of the Bali
summit as well as during the BRICS summit in Johannesburg. Peace and tranquility
in the border areas and respect for the LAC were stressed. “Unresolved issues”
are India’s concern and the two leaders agreed to work towards disengagement
and de-escalation.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">If Xi does not undertake the journey because
of “other pressing matters”, the signal will be that the delegations are
inching towards an agreement. As soon as the gap between the two sides closes,
it will be Modi’s call – when to celebrate?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Now? Before the 2024 elections or
afterwards?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Spokesmen for Xi and Modi cannot look
credible saying the same thing from Bali, Johannesburg and now New Delhi. What is
in the bargain is not just a border issue but what course lies in store for two
ancient, proud civilizations, countries with the world’s two largest populations,
vastly in excess of a billion each. These are easy comparisons. Thereafter, the
complications begin. China is miles ahead of India in economic and military
power and social cohesion.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">India would obviously like to catch up. Towards
this end it keeps a very firm line of friendship with the US which, unlike
European nations, sees China as a threat.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">As palpitations on account of China’s
rise have picked up in Washington, so has the price tag on India’s friendship
gone up in value? During his visit to Washington in June Modi picked up some
rewards of goodwill. Rewards will keep increasing so long as India sustains its
adversarial stance with China.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Against this background, all this talk
of Xi and Modi walking under banners, buntings, confetti after a border deal is
sealed, disturbs Washington, which bestowed on Modi the sort of defence
technology deals which are meant only for close allies. The term “alliance” is
anathema to New Delhi. It prefers “partnership”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In its sole superpower moment,
Washington had the might to obtain signatures even on blank affidavit papers. No
longer, particularly after the drubbing the hegemon’s image has received in all
its military outings since the Vietnam War, climaxed by the messy withdrawal
from Afghanistan and now fighting to the last Ukrainian towards heaven knows
what end.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">An anxiety riven headline on the cover
of the Economist, “What if China and India make up?” comes across as a function
of an acute lack of self confidence. In this state of mind, a
Washington-Beijing entente, on the other side of the horizon, is not
unthinkable.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The late T.K. Kaul’s description of the New
Delhi, Beijing and Washington equation as “the tantalizing triangle” was apt.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-5015587435377596862023-08-18T18:09:00.000+05:302023-08-18T18:09:50.267+05:30From Pakistan To El Salvador: The Bleak Future Of Liberal Democracy<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">From
Pakistan To El Salvador: The Bleak Future Of Liberal Democracy</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed
Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Liberal democracy, the one that is yoked
to capitalism, already in hopeless disrepair worldwide, received another drubbing
next door in Pakistan. With innovative audacity, the establishment attempted to
play Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark. The Prince, in this case, has been
locked up in jail.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It happened like this.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The Pakistan Cricket Control Board produced
a video clip on the history of Pakistan cricket. This was in preparation for
the World Cup being played by 10 teams across 48 matches in every available
cricket stadium in India from October 5 to November 19.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The existence of the video was brought
to popular notice by the legendary Pakistani fast bowler, Wasim Akram in a
tweet. Soon upon landing in Sri Lanka to cover one of the warm up matches for
the World Cup, Akram received what he described as the “greatest shock of my life”:
he found the “great Imran Khan’s” name missing from the video. And, Imran it
was who, as captain, won the 1992 World Cup for Pakistan. How obviously
malicious.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Whatever the political differences in
Pakistan, said Akram, no one disputes the fact that Imran Khan is “an icon of
world cricket and it was he who developed Pakistan into a strong unit in his
time and gave us a pathway: PCB should delete the video and apologize to Imran
Khan.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Such spontaneous outburst from Wasim
Akram, himself one of the all time greats of world cricket, could not have
remained a solo reaction. Thousands of Akram’s follower who woke upto the
scandal because of his tweet, have obviously saturated the twitter space with
protests. How long does it take for such anger to spill onto the street or
simmer in the basement?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The strength of popular mobilization
behind the Tehreek e Insaf supremo must have hit the Pakistani establishment
between the eyes. The PCB, in a state of funk, decided to take corrective
action by resurrecting Imran – giving him his rightful place in the world cup
2023 promotional video.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The shoddy effort to deny Imran Khan a
place in the cricketing universe is not dissimilar to the establishment
hounding him out of the political turf on which Imran Khan happens to be the
most popular politician in Pakistan’s history. Apparently the Board of Control for
Cricket in India has measured upto their Pakistani counterpart. In their
promotional video they have left out Babar Azam, world’s number one ODI
batsman.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A bright 11</span><sup style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif";">th</sup><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> grade
schoolboy, a cricket freak, stumped me with his question: “If Imran Khan is the
most popular politician in Pakistan, why is he in jail?”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Since the fall of the Berlin wall in
1989, Establishments have increasingly replaced the people as arbiters of
electoral outcome. If people had been the arbiters, Bernie Sanders in the US
and Jeremy Corbyn in the UK would have defeated their rivals by wide margins.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A Fox News poll published in 2016 showed
that Bernie Sanders had at +28 rating, above all US politicians on both sides of
the political spectrum. This prompted Trevor Timm of The Guardian to do some
plain speaking: “one would have thought with numbers like that Democratic
politicians would be falling all over themselves to be associated with Sanders,
especially considering that the party as a whole is more </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">unpopular</i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> than the Republicans including Donald Trump. Yet instead
of embracing his message, the Establishment wing of the party continues to
resist him at almost every turn.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Let me give you just one tiny example of
how establishments assert themselves in determining electoral politics. During the
primaries for the democratic nomination in 2020, as in 2016, Sanders was
galloping ahead of others in the field. To arrest his advance, Michael
Bloomberg, billionaire and former Mayor of New York, entered the race. His entry
had to be played up. Appeared two full-fledged op-ed columns by the NYT’s
Thomas Friedman, who began one of his columns….”I like Mike because……..etc.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Similar maneuvering in 2016 had the
effect of bringing Donald Trump to power. John Kerry, Secretary of State, could
not bring himself to consider Trump a serious happening. He met statesmen across
the globe who, he said, were bewildered at the prospect of Trump entering the
White House. Columnist Surjit Bhalla went one better: he lamented with all the
amplifiers on, “Trump’s victory will be the end of western civilization.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">My stand had been straightforward. “If
you make Sanders impossible you will make Trump inevitable.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In the context of Pakistan, a variant of
the same formulation applies. “If you make Imran Khan impossible, you make Army
rule inevitable.” India qualifies for a critical appraisal too. It requires a
separate column in greater detail.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Acquiescence in this general hollowing
out of democracies will deliver us to a destination which the 11</span><sup style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif";">th</sup><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">
grader of this narrative will find deceptively attractive. The headline in a
recent issue of the Economist is scary, and not only for Latin Americans. “Young
Latin Americans are unusually open to autocrats.” The infection is spreading.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In a recent international poll in Latin
America, respondents were asked to rate their approval of 17 world leaders on a
scale of one to ten. On a list which included Pope Francis and Volodymyr
Zelensky, guess which world politician has the highest approval rating among
people across Latin America? This approval is even stronger among the young.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">This extraordinarily popular leader surfaced
in 2019 as 37 year old Nayib Bukele, President of El Salvador wearing on his
sleeves the promise of eliminating gangsterism, which is endemic in his
country.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">With such impunity did he embark on “gang
crackdown” in March 2022, that 87 people were murdered in a single weekend. More
than 70,000 young men are in prison. Bukele, who calls himself “The World’s Coolest
Dictator”, is readying himself for 2024 general elections. With an approval
rating of over 80 percent, the backwards baseball wearing dictator prepares
himself to drive a nice, long nail in the coffin of liberal democracy, even as
a peace of the graveyard descends on El Salvador. Remember, the President is only
41.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-43189896209730629222023-08-11T19:30:00.000+05:302023-08-11T19:30:38.801+05:30Response To No Confidence Debate: Modi’s 2024 Election Speech?<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Response To No Confidence Debate: Modi’s 2024
Election Speech?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed
Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Shart e saliqa
hai har ek amr mein,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Aeb bhi karne
ko hunar chaahiyey<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Mir Taqi Mir<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">(There is a
condition: you need skill,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Even doing the
bad thing well)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The no
confidence debate in Parliament was the opposition’s plan B. Since the Prime
Minister Narendra Modi obstinately refused to make a statement on the three
month long violence in Manipur, the opposition set up a debate as a frame
within which it could slot Manipur.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In other
words, Manipur would be a square on the chessboard and speakers on both sides
of the aisle would have all the 64 squares to amble or sprint on in the course
of the debate.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The strategy
provided Modi with the opportunity to tease and taunt the opposition, to strut
all over the board for 90 minutes of his 120 minutes speech without as much as
mentioning Manipur. Only when an exasperated opposition walked out and the
Prime Minister saw the last few opposition members sulking out that he swiftly
switched to Manipur.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It was like a
prank: I shall starve you of my voice on Manipur. Only when I see the backs of
you will I give the House my take on the North East.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In the latter
part of his speech, as in the earlier one, he proceeded to joust with the
Congress and I.N.D.I.A., alternately. He extracted a giggle for his take on I.N.D.I.A.
as “two Is inserted in NDA.” The Is, he suggested, stood for the all important
Ego.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The second I
presumably stood for Indira Gandhi who became the prime target as he turned his
attention to Manipur. On 5 March 1966, according to Modi, Prime Minister Indira
Gandhi ordered aerial bombardment of Manipur. He did not spare Jawaharlal Nehru
either.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">What was Nehru
to be blamed for? Well, during the 1962 debacle with China in a radio broadcast
Nehru said his heart went out to the people of Assam. Not a word about the
North East.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">When Modi had
a formidable list of Congress misdeeds in his bag he started trotting them out,
one by one. What followed sent something like this:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Modi: Who
ordered air strikes on Manipur?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Treasury
benches in chorus: Congress!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Modi did this
serially, his MPs picking up the cue like they had been in the drill for years.
I doubt if Lok Sabha had ever witnessed such a circus. And the performance was
only for the TV cameras. The opposition had walked out by now.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Modi’s control
on his flock is breathtaking.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Opposite this
brigade, in perfect lock step, was the nascent I.N.D.I.A. alliance, the glue
still fresh between the crevices.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Modi almost gave
notice that he will do his best to disrupt the new alliance. A simple ploy to
keep the alliance unsettled is to project the 2024 general elections as a Modi
versus Rahul Gandhi contest. The allies will be scared stiff at this projection
and some may even jump off.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It is a
disruptive issue to be raised at this stage of the proceedings. That is why it
suits Modi’s election machinery of which a large section of the media has
chosen to be a part, to play Modi and RG as principal combatants in the 2024
electoral Kurukshetra.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">There
persists, nevertheless, a coterie of the impatient who privately believe this
projection is valid. Why not, they ask, after the new image RG has acquired?
Which new image? Well, RG’s image has received a considerable boost after the
success of the Bharat Jodo Yatra. Also the smooth functioning of Malikarjun
Kharge as party President and RG as one team is laudable.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Descendants of
Ram Manohar Lohia’s socialist party are now in the new alliance. They were
reminded by Modi of Lohia’s sharp criticism of Nehru, including the latter’s
neglect of the North East. This is just a foretaste of the assaults on the
alliance which will become sharper as campaigning picks up. In many ways Modi’s
response to the debate was his first 2024 election speech. The slogan for the
campaign was clear as daylight: give me a third term and I guarantee that “we
shall be the world’s third greatest economy.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">There are
minefields I.N.D.I.A. has to go through before it welds into a stable front.
One example of a mine which could impede progress is the Congress’s equation
with, say, TRS (now Bharat Rashtra Samithi). Pundits had earlier placed
Congress at number 3 in the race. The real tussle was between TRS and the BJP.
More recently punters are changing their bets. The closest contest could be
between TRS and the Congress. How will these swords be placed in the same
scabbard? Contradictions are strewn all over the turf which straddles I.N.D.I.A.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In the three
day debate why did RG choose to make an appearance on the second day when a
large number of TV watchers did not expect him to? There was great expectation on
the first day. What was the advice from the media team, assuming that the party
has one? By switching his slot to the second day, RG, Congress and I.N.D.I.A.
lost hundreds of thousands of viewers.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">There are two
broad questions being asked of his performance. Does he have the making of a
statesman of gravitas who marshals his facts and develops the architecture of
his presentation in a forum like Parliament?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The other is: Has
he outgrown his somewhat boyish demeanour? Let us face it, with considerable
brevity he was able to pin Modi down with sharp questions. Why have you neither
visited Manipur nor spoken on the state which has been burning for three
months? And, why are you trailing, with a matchbox in hand, the kerosene (communalism)
you have sprinkled across the country? Ofcourse, Modi said nothing.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Sadly, there
was no one in the opposition ranks or on the treasury benches who could ask RG
and his cohorts “Why have you not visited Haryana which has been on fire since
July 31 – it is barely an hour’s drive from New Delhi?”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-53701913737511829922023-08-04T19:37:00.003+05:302023-08-04T19:37:59.025+05:30Communalism In Haryana Wasn’t As Catastrophic As Its Authors Intended<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Communalism
In Haryana Wasn’t As Catastrophic As Its Authors Intended</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">If the purpose of the communal flare up
in several districts of Haryana was to condition the electoral trend in
Rajasthan, create the “suitable” mood for the 2024 general elections, boost
chances of Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar’s third term and spread
some tension in the National Capital Region, I am afraid the BJP will have to
do better. This soufflé did not quite rise.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Much to BJP’s chagrin, an obstacle in
their path is the evolving Jat-Muslim social cohesion. This almost organic Jat-Muslim
evolution has to be disrupted to make way for politics of polarization.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Effort is on in Haryana to create a
cleavage between Muslims and Jats. At Mandkola, a Jat village in Palwal, a
gathering was addressed by the members of the Bajrang Dal exhorting “Hindus” to
consolidate against Muslims.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The divisive effort did not go very far.
A panchayat in the neighbouring Muslim village of Kot the very next day was
devoted almost entirely to maintaining communal harmony at all costs. That it
was a Muslim village is misleading. Let me explain.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A Paal in the local system is a part of
a “Khap” a Jat or Meo group which maintains the tradition social hierarchy. At
the panchayat in Kot, the Muslim “Paals” – Shiklot, Magariya, Damrote and Hindu
“Paals” – Rawat, Saushet, Sahrawat, jointly endorsed “harmony at all costs.” The
infection from Kot and Mandkola will spread making wider concentric circles.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">What must remain a puzzle to people who,
over the past 40 years, have grown accustomed to Hindus and Muslims at
loggerheads, is that the two major communities in a neighbouring state under
BJP rule have established a bond of peace.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">One reason for this harmony in the past
centuries was the Meo’s unabashed contemplation of themselves as converts from
Hinduism – they took pride in the culture derived from their Hindu ancestry.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A progressive Meo I met retained his
name which clearly revealed his ancestry – Zafar Meo Yaduvanshi. In our caste-religion
ridden system, the integrated aspects of Meo culture have not found multitudes of
admirers.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The surge of Muslim reform movements had
their impact. The reformist “Mullah” found Meo culture too “Hindu”. Hindu
society gradually under the spell of Arya Samaj and later political Hinduism
found the “reformed” Meos “too Muslim.” Buffeted from both sides, some Meos
began to change.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">I remember distinguished Meo lawyer,
Ramzan Chaudhry, make a clear admission. “I was embarrassed that my mother did
Goverdhan puja.” Despite all the exertions for the “Islamization” of the Meo and
Hinduization of the Jat, how have the two come on the same side?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A simple reason for Jats being against
the Centre is official indifference to the agitation for Jat reservation.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Second, and much more important in
welding Jats and Muslims, was the Kisaan Andolan or the Farmers’ agitation in
which the Meos stood four square with the Jats. In this regard the Jats of
Palwal, Sohna, Gurugram sentimentally remember “our Sikh brothers”. The generosity
with which they opened “langars” or feeding centres is the stuff of legends in the
Jat belt.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">To run these large feeding Centres over
months, the Sikh organization occasionally needed help from Jats. In one
instance the Centres needed hundreds of litres of milk.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Jats, who once kept cows and buffalos have,
in many instances moved on to other means of livelihood. Gujjars now keep dairy
animals but they are traditionally opposed to </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Jats. They refused to help in this instance. The shortfall in milk was made up
by Meo Muslim dairy farmers, a fact that the Jats will never forget.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In the recent agitation by women
wrestlers, who happen to be Jats, the community again had total support from
Muslims.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In other words Jats and Muslims are
arrayed against the Bajrang Dal’s efforts to consolidate the Hindu fold.
Brahmins, Thakurs, Gujjars are on the opposite side.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">There is a huge lesson in the Meo-Jat
bonding. This is the secularism of joint struggle and common purpose, infinitely
more durable than the shallow secularism of mutual tolerance. There are some vulnerabilities.
Saturation coverage given to the foul allegation during the peak of Covid pandemic
that Muslims in the Markaz at Nizamuddin were deliberately spreading the virus,
had its fallout in Haryana too. Anyone who looked like a Muslim was avoided by
all Hindus. Jats were no exception.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">How did the trouble begin?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Society, Andy Warhol said, had reached a
stage when everybody will be famous for a few minutes. The most notorious Bad-Men
in Rajasthan and Haryana at the moment are Monu Manesar and Pintu Bajrangi. They
are alleged to have burnt alive two Meo-Muslims in Rajasthan last May. The incident
itself and subsequent police lethargy ignited Muslim anger in the entire Mewat
belt.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Anger simmered. Then, in late July posts
on facebook announced Monu Manesar and Pintu Bajrangi’s participation in a
Vishwa Hindu Parishad sponsored yatra starting July 31 from the Nalhar Mahadev temple
in Meo dominated Nuh in Haryana.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Facebook posts by Monu and Pintu asked
people to turn up in large numbers to garland them. They taunted the Meos to receive
their “Jijaji” or “brother in law” with some fanfare. Meos sent back equally vicious
rejoinders.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">When the procession started, Muslim
youth pelted stones but their principal targets were the elusive two – Monu Manesar
and Pintu Bajrangi. Where were they hiding? Maybe in the cars parked nearby. The
cars were burnt.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In a small living room of a local Jat
leader, both Hindu and Muslim lawyers, social activist, panchayat leaders spoke
in and out of turn, each being the other’s proxy.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">They all seemed to say the same thing:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Jats took no part in the yatra which was
armed with swords and rods. The Muslims, also armed, were in a position to surround
and kill indiscriminately. “The Bajrang Dal plan was to have atleast a hundred martyrs,
their bodies to be paraded throughout the Hindi belt” – Godhra on a larger
scale.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Muslims showed restraint even though
Muslim shops, houses were gutted.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">There is curfew in several districts. Mosques
have been burnt. Communal clouds still hover.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-62802501101177213402023-07-28T14:08:00.001+05:302023-07-28T14:08:37.435+05:30Pivot To Poland: Is That The Trajectory Of Ukraine War?<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Pivot
To Poland: Is That The Trajectory Of Ukraine War?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The Ukraine war has already yielded one
of its most important outcomes even though the western media does not dwell on
it with enthusiasm. It is now confirmed beyond the shadow of a doubt that US
hegemony has been irreversibly replaced by a multi polar world. G7 are a
grouping in decline; BRICS is the expanding reality.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In this altered order, nations are busy
consolidating their slots. The Turkish President, Tayyip Erdogan took another
turn in his pirouette: he lifted his objection on Sweden joining NATO and
received Volodymyr Zelensky. He repatriated five commanders of the neo-Nazi
Azov brigade in clear breach of his understanding with Russia, agreed to
support Ukraine’s membership of NATO. His recent alliance with Russia has been
more or less discarded.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">He likes the multi polarity, but to play
a regional role he would not like to be painted on the same page as, say, Iran.
Russia is acceptable as a regional power but not as a victor over Ukraine. That
would make the Black Sea its lake. Erdogan’s stakes in the Black Sea are
considerable.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Turkey’s U-turn is not without reasons:
economic crisis, spiraling inflation, unemployment, weakening currency and,
above all, falling investments. Apparently his outreach to the Gulf States did
not spur investments. Hence this westward lurch. There were speculations in
Ankara that he would play the Swedish card if the issue of Turkey’s entry into
Europe were reopened. This, if true, is a foolish dream. Former French
President Giscard d’Estaing was blunt. “Western civilization is Christian; Turkey
can have no place in it.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Talking of Muslim states and their
compatibility with Europe, consider this: when Richard Holbrooke, US special
envoy to the Balkans, settled the issue of Bosnia’s statehood he tied a part of
it to a district of Serbia – a sort of three legged state, its Muslim identity
totally in check.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">An unadulterated Muslim Bosnia was not
in order. Ironically, a Muslim Kosovo was carved out of Serbia. The Orthodox
Church and the Slavic links with Russia create a special bond between Belgrade and
Moscow. When Kosovo was being carved out of Serbia without as much as a Russian
nod, Russian tanks gatecrashed the US supervised party and occupied Pristina
airport.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Diverse policies in Kosovo and Bosnia
were explained those days as part of bitter differences between Secretary of
State Madeleine Albright and Holbrooke.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">So proud was Albright of her Kosovo
initiative that she asked her Director for Policy Planning, Morton Halperin, to
commission a special study of “The Kosovo initiative”. Richard Ullman, a
distinguished professor of International Relations at Princeton and a former
editor of Foreign Policy Magazine, was provided with space in the State
Department to embark on this research. No one has ever heard what happened to
the research launched with such fanfare.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">There is reason for this extended focus
on the Balkans: should the conflict be expanded as a regional destabilization
project, the Serbia-Kosovo section lends itself to much mischief. It is a maze
of criss crossing interests involving the US, EU, Russia and Turkey which, in
its Ottoman Avatar, ruled over large parts of the region. Troops from different
European countries guard distinct parts of Kosovo, including the most revered
monastery of Dejan.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A daily ritual at Dejan is emblematic of
the deep and abiding grudges in the region. Every evening a muscular young
priest carrying a heavy rattle called the tallantone runs around the main
church in the compound. The noise from the rattle is supposed to alert the
inmates against the “Turk”, the eternal threat.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Recently, Zelensky, a Jew, ordered
Orthodox priests to vacate Ukraine’s grand churches. The reason for this harsh
order? The Orthodox Church has links with its counterpart in Moscow. This link
can undermine Ukraine’s war effort, it is argued.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Even otherwise, there is enough
conflictual material in the region. Just as Turkey unlocks the gate for Sweden
to enter NATO, Sweden emerges in bold relief as the state authorizing Quran
burning, enraging Muslims worldwide.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Hezbollah’s supreme leader Hassan
Nasrallah has already called for Sweden’s ambassadors to be expelled from
Muslim countries. Provide fuel to this and Islamophobia may well be on the way to
being resurrected. Are there powerful interests working towards this end?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">All of this may be bleak speculation,
but the recent NATO summit in Vilnius rubbished any positive spin the western media
may have placed on the West’s gains in the war. Public fireworks lent
themselves to photographs which were not flattering to NATO at all.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">One photograph shows NATO Secretary
General Jens Stoltenberg virtually pushing Zelensky off the stage. Apparently
Zelensky, angry because Ukraine had been denied immediate membership of NATO,
had clambered onto the stage like an irate heckler.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">His protests caused British Defence
Minister, Ben Wallace to virtually scold Zelensky. Wallace thought Ukraine
should express more appreciation to its supporters.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The rejoinder from Zelensky was sharp.
“He should write to me about how he wants to be thanked.” Wallace himself was
none too happy because his candidature as the next Secretary General of NATO
had been scuttled by the only authority more effective than Britain in the
conclaves of NATO – the US.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A prominent Ukrainian activist, asked US
National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan a question, in these words, “how to
explain to my son, who is sleeping in the corridor due to air raids, that Biden
isn’t ready to accept Ukraine into NATO.” She added “Is he afraid of Russia –
are there back channel negotiation with Russia and Ukraine’s NATO hopes are a
bargaining chip?”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Such scandalous talk plus the
Anglo-American differences on Wallace’s candidature as the next NATO Secretary
General must have been honeyed music to Putin.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Meanwhile, Putin revealed that reliable
intelligence gathered by the Kremlin confirm US plans to insert into western
Ukraine a Polish expeditionary force “for a subsequent occupation of these
territories.” Should this happen, a part of Ukraine, to be absorbed into Poland,
will automatically have NATO protection under chapter 5. What a development.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-20714267699680574462023-07-21T19:28:00.000+05:302023-07-21T19:28:03.225+05:30How Muslims In Mandela’s Cabinet Outgrow Their Religious Identity<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">How
Muslims In Mandela’s Cabinet Outgrow Their Religious Identity</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">When a school inviting me for a talk on
Mandela Day last week, accompanied by my TV interview with Madiba, as he was
affectionately called, I was transported back to one of the most exciting
assignments I had done – the end of Apartheid in South Africa in February 1990.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989
signaled the end of the Soviet Union. This, in its wake unfroze conflicts across
the globe which had been sustained by the West as assets in the Cold War.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">I remember how Prime Minister Rajiv
Gandhi and other Commonwealth leaders at a 1986 summit in London failed to
persuade Mrs. Thatcher to stiffen sanctions against the Apartheid regime. “More
sanctions would hurt black workers”, she argued.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Likewise Christian Democrats were kept
in power with the unspeakable corruption which Italian judges subsequently investigated
and exposed but only after the Soviet threat had ended. Under leaders like
Enrico Berlinguer, the Communist party was a formidable threat.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The congealed sectarian conflict in
Northern Ireland was sought to be ended, resulting in the Good Friday agreement
of 1998. Former Yugoslavia became seven independent republics. As many central Asian
republics emerged.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The unforgettable drive through these
republics left two indelible images on the mind.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Impeccably clad saleswomen and men
supervised large, well-stocked stores of United Colors of Benetton, lined with
fashionable clothes and multiple, expensive decorative items. Remarkably, there
was not a single buyer in sight. This was a case of capitalism advertising itself.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The other image was of empty mosques but
packed Orthodox Churches celebrating the post-Soviet “freedoms”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In Northern Ireland, the sectarian animus
ran deep, going back to the Battle of the Boyne in 1690 when the Protestant
William of Orange defeated the Roman Catholic James II. “Had William lost to
James, the throne of England would have been Roman Catholic” Jack Sawyer, the
distinguished editor of the Belfast Telegraph, explained to me.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">This passionate desire for union with
Britain in perpetuity stoked Catholic or Republican anger. Ultra-Right wing
Unionists like Rev. Ian Paisley, shunned any accommodation with the Irish
Republican Army (IRA), its political wing, the Shin Fein, or with Dublin. The language
was particularly aggressive: “We shall never be under the Jack Boot of Dublin.”
Then the Soviet Union collapsed and the Good Friday agreement was forged in
1998.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It is in this sequence that the West decided
to free itself of the odium of sustaining Apartheid. It was as part of the
choreography of this process that Mandela’s release after 27 years in the White
man’s prison became its crowning glory.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Archbishop Desmond Tutu, a friend of
Mandela’s and a distinguished leader of the anti-Apartheid struggle encapsuled
the consequences of Apartheid in the course of one of his sermons. “When the white
man first came to South he had the Bible in his hands, we blacks had all the
lands. But as time passed our roles were reversed: we had the Bible and the
white man had all the lands.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">To cover Mandela’s release from the
Victor Verster prison, outside Cape Town, my crew and I would have to enter
South Africa before Apartheid had formally ended. How does one enter a country
with which India has no diplomatic relations? Informal arrangements were made
with the help of the Joint Secretary, Africa, Arundhati Ghosh, a most helpful
officer and friend.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Clearing immigration formalities was
easy enough, but almost insurmountable was the customs regime. A closed society
had exceptionally strict rules for TV cameras and other equipment. I had to find
someone in Johannesburg who would stand surety for us. In other words, someone had
to deposit half a million rands with the customs authorities. The sum would be
returned on our way out “if the regime had found our behaviour satisfactory.” In
other words, the guarantee was not so much for the equipment as for our
journalistic behaviour. It was an unstated promise extracted from us that our
TV shows would not embarrass the departing regime.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Among the phone numbers I had carried
with me was one of Yusuf Cachalia whose father, Mohammad Cachalia figures in
Mahatma Gandhi’s South Africa years. As soon as Cachalia learnt of our
predicament he sent help to what is now Johannesburg’s Oliver Tambo airport – a
cheque by way of surety included. It was an extraordinary act of generosity because
Yusuf bhai (as I began to call him) did not know me at all.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">“I wanted an Indian journalist to cover
the end of this cruel system.” Yusuf bhai and his wife, Amina, were friends of
Mandela’s since his earliest days in the African National Congress (ANC) of
which the two were also members before Yusuf bhai branched out into “stocks and
shares” in the “interest of family and party comrades.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It took me a while to understand the
presence of nine cabinet ministers of Indian origin in Mandela’s first cabinet.
One or two Indian diplomats took a dim view of the fact that only Mac Maharaj
and Jay Naidu were Hindus. The remainder were all of Muslim origin. Quite remarkably,
Frene Ginwala, a Parsee`, was the first speaker of the National Assembly.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Mandela’s Principal Adviser in his
office was Ahmad Kathrada. Mandela’s successor, Thabo Mbeki maintained the
pattern: his Principal Adviser was Essop (Yusuf) Pahad. There is a sociological
explanation. When ships carrying the first batches of indentured labour docked
in Natal in 1860 onwards, to work on the sugar plantations, a majority of their
progeny joined the Tricameral legislatures established in 1984-94 to accommodate
Indians and coloureds. There was no representation for blacks.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Later when Gujarati Muslim merchants
arrived to cater to an expanding Indian community, their children had the means
to acquire the best education outside South Africa. It were these graduates of Western
enlightenment who returned to join the South African Communist party and the
ANC, its affiliate. In the struggle of common purpose, these progressive ideologically
motivated youth had miraculously outgrown their religious identity.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-13958089998925660592023-07-07T19:27:00.002+05:302023-07-07T19:27:41.638+05:30Why Only Virtual SCO Under Modi’s Chairmanship After “Spectacular” US Visit?<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Why
Only Virtual SCO Under Modi’s Chairmanship After “Spectacular” US Visit?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The passing away of Subhash Chakravarty
last month has not been much noticed because Subhash or Dada, as some of us
called him, as a long time chief of Bureau of The Times of India did not have
the exposure of, say, a Kuldip Nayar. More than his readers, fellow journalists
would remember him. He was more of a newshound than a popular writer.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Editors got hooked on him because of the
vast quantities of information he furnished for the editor to process. When N.J.
Nanporia, the most erudite of editors, moved from The Times of India to The
Statesman, his unofficial but regular “tipster” was Dada rather than his
counterpart who was on paper’s staff.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The man who could walk unannounced into
the offices of the most powerful in the land, was also extremely lonely in his
private life. His extraordinary access to politicians like Pranab Mukherjee
could be explained in parochial terms too </span><span style="font-family: "Arial Black", "sans-serif"; font-size: 13pt;">––</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> he could not
conceal his Bengali chauvinism.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In this he was not dissimilar to the
late Abu Abraham. A superb cartoonist, Abu was also a Malayali chauvinisist, a
tendency which erupted every time he touched on “north Indian culture”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Dada and Abu have crept into memory
simultaneously because they link up in different ways with a China story gestating
in my mind.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Among the many remarkable cartoons the
late Abu Abraham sketched the one he prided most was of Mao Zedong walking upto
an Indian diplomat, Brajesh Mishra, smiling mysteriously, eye contact and all. The
enigmatic smile, at a time when relations between two nations were in a “chill”
phase, became the subject of continuous discussion and punditry. Abu’s caption
of the cartoon were words of inspiration: “Mao-Lisa”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The Mao-Lisa smile may well have been
one of the ingredients in K.R. Narayanan being named ambassador to Beijing in
1976 after a 14 year lapse. The date of Narayanan’s appointment overlapped with
the Emergency.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">When Indira Gandhi was routed in the
1977 and Morarji Desai became Prime Minister, the Ministry of External Affairs
fell to the lot of Atal Behari Vajpayee. The office he occupied near South
Block’s main staircase was exactly the one that Pandit Nehru occupied as Prime
Minister.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">“I am about to occupy the chair on which
Pandit Nehru sat.” Vajpayee was full of emotion.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Among his earlier visits as Minister for
External Affairs, Vajpayee and his cerebral Foreign Secretary, Jagat Mehta, embarked
on was to China, in February, 1979.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">N. Ram, Dada and I were part of a small
team of journalists invited to accompany the delegation. Dada was never short
on tips on chopsticks at the Great Hall of the Peoples, the essential protocol
of climbing the Great Wall </span><span style="font-family: "Arial Black", "sans-serif"; font-size: 13pt;">––</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> with an empty
bladder. In February’s biting cold there would otherwise be that embarrassing search
for a toilet.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">One big advantage of having Dada by our
side was actually quite priceless. Since he called up his editor, Girilal Jain
twice a day we were regularly updated on how our stories were faring. The Editor’s
approval of the drift of one’s stories was clear from the display given to what
one was writing. It was all very satisfactory until one reached Hangzhou, the
great cultural centre.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">After a memorable banquet by the local
party chief, we retired to our rooms in an exquisite hotel. This was usually
the time for Dada to walk to the press room for his confabulation with his
editor. Such was Dada’s demeanour that it appeared to those who were listening
to the conversation that Dada was actually scolding his editor. That was his
style.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">This particular conversation with Girilal
Jain ended dramatically. Dada let the handset dangling by the spiral cord,
rather like the climax of Dial M for Murder. He ran toward Jagat Mehta’s room
and began banging on the door. “Jagat, open the door” he thundered ominously, “China
has invaded Vietnam”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It was feared from the first day of
Vajpayee’s visit that Deng Xiaoping might actually do what he verbally threatened:
“teach Vietnam a lesson.” Some action was expected after Vietnam occupied
Kampuchea and removed the Khmer Rouge supported by China.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Considering that the Indian Foreign
Minister was in Beijing on something of an epoch making visit, military action
against Vietnam without as much as taking the visitor into confidence was construed
an insult. What compounded the insult was the fact that the Foreign Minister of
Yugoslavia who was in Beijing at the same time, was kept in the loop.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">What took place in Vajpayee suite that
night was something of a somber variant of pajama party. Vajpayee’s mind was
made up. He cut short the visit and returned home via Hong Kong.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">This was Chinese behaviour at a time
when Deng’s four modernizations had barely been announced as state policy.
China, like India then, was a poor, developing country.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Did China deliberately insult Vajpayee? I
would say no. The element of secrecy with India was dictated by India’s deep
relations with the Soviet Union. Vietnam at this stage was largely in the
Soviet camp.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">What Vajpayee’s successor, Narendra Modi
is coping with is China risen to the height of Gulliver, challenging not India,
but the US, India’s patron. Circumstances of a changing global order have
placed India on a sweet spot, wooed by both sides. In this situation, India’s commitment
to strategic autonomy is credible.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">This credibility has to be sustained by
managing the autonomy of action without ever looking like the leaning tower of
Pisa.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Village “Nutts” walk on ropes tightly
held by two poles. A fall, if ever, is after all only before a small village
audience. A high wire act before a global audience the one India is embarked on
demands exceptional agility. Just because we are satisfied with the optics of
the US visit, we cannot let our guard down. Our slipping into a virtual mode
for SCO will have the world scrutinize the shift. Strategic autonomy as a
policy will have to be sustainable. As a trick it will be found out.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-55174689983599063092023-06-30T17:47:00.001+05:302023-06-30T17:47:37.199+05:30West Exerting For Documents Critical of Russia At G20, BRICS, SCO<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">West
Exerting For Documents Critical of Russia At G20, BRICS, SCO</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Even though the purpose for which the Ukraine
war was provoked has boomeranged on the West, the capacity of the US to needle
Russia and not let it rest in peace remains undiminished.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Western guerrilla actions are feared in
each one of the international conferences lined up around the theme of Ukraine.
Some of these conferences may not be focused on Ukraine but Ukraine will
dominate proceedings.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Step by step it is building upto a
crescendo, the G20 summit in September in New Delhi. Positions taken by all G20
countries are known and yet, the secure lines between Moscow and the Chanceries
are working overtime lest an inflection is introduced in the communique by some
official who will lift the comma from one place to another and will, by subtle
implication, transform a benign statement to a condemnation of Russia.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The Shanghai Cooperation Organization
meet on July 4 – Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,
Kirghizstan are all under US pressure to introduce a full stop where a comma
suffices.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A peculiar catch attends the BRICS summit
scheduled in South Africa in August. Senator Lindsay Graham had at the very
outset of the Ukraine war made a simple suggestion – assassinate Putin. All the
troubles will be over. The US has not been emptied of gents teeming with such
ideas.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Short of assassinating Putin is another
idea: lock him up in jail, rigorous imprisonment.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">An idea germinating in fertile minds is
to make use of the International Criminal Court. There is no guarantee that the
Chief Justice will be persuaded by the US to chase Putin with manacles and
deliver him to a high security prison. For this scenario to be played out, a
territory has to be located where the ICC’s writ runs.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Say, some place like South Africa. South
Africa is a signatory to the Rome statute, which obliges the country to deliver
the “culprit” to the ICC, should that body issue warrants to the effect.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Why is South Africa of any relevance in
this context? Folks in Washington are smacking their lips because in August the
BRICS summiteer will be meeting in that nation. The President of South Africa,
Cyril Ramaphosa, a former communist and trade union leader, is not one who
would leap to arrest Putin.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Nor was there a judge at the ICC who
would demonstrate enthusiasm to arrest The Russian President. But since June 2021,
ICC is led by a British judge who is deceptively of Pakistani origin. Justice
Karim Ahmad Khan is British but his father was born in the North West Frontier
province.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Two suggestions are being talked about.
Either Putin be represented by someone like Dmitry Medvedev or some other
method be devised since Putin’s personal presence is being seen as important at
the crucial summit. It is possible that the venue for the summit will be
shifted to Beijing. This would suitably pique the West and protect Putin. The
tussle has already begun behind the scenes.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The craft and cunning of diplomacy are
accelerated when wars begin to taper. Is the Ukraine war tapering? The big
signal for the war’s conclusion will be when Western help in weapons and cash
shows signs of drying up.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">When wealth being transferred comes down
from billions to millions, as happened last week, it should be clear to
President Volodymyr Zelensky that the end is nigh. Ofcourse the West is not
going to expose itself to the odium of defeat.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">What is this war about at this stage? Neither
side can afford to lose in the battlefield. The stakes for Russia are higher.
Their nationhood is at stake, with NATO glaring at them from the border. To
prevent such an outcome, Russia will go to any length. A country which can
afford to lose 26 million people to defeat the Nazis, will stop at nothing to
save Russia.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In the face of so much Western
propaganda, one sometimes hesitates to spell out even an obvious truth visible
to the naked eye.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Who began this war and why? The unending
Western propaganda suggests Putin embarked on this war, quite unprovoked, as a
precursor to the reestablishment of the Soviet or Czarist Empire. Distinguished
western academics are convinced that the West provoked the conflict.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Neither NATO-US military help to
Zelensky nor “sanctions from hell” have brought Putin down to his knees.
Europe, on the other hand, is in desperate straits economically, politically,
socially. Should Trump come on top in the US, we are in for a very
unpredictable world, its multipolarity now firmly established.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Remember how Liz Truss, the British
Prime Minister for a week, rushed around the world rallying nations for
“Democracy” as opposed to “Autocracy” which is what Putin is supposed to represent.
So, in Truss’s perception an epic battle between “Democracy” and “Autocracy” was
on. Let us count the trophies the West has picked up for itself from this
conflict.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Far from the democracies Liz Truss was to
be the harbinger of, we now have an accumulation of Far-Right, Nazi forces
surging to the fore in Poland, Netherland, Austria, Spain, Hungary, France,
Germany, Sweden – nations which on current showing make Russia and China look
like promising places. What sayest thou, Ms. Truss?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Let the truth be told. This war was
never about Ukraine. It was about the new world order. The West was keen to
retain its dominance. The global south led by China, Russia, Brazil, South
Africa, India, members of BRICS had sighted a multipolar world order ever since
the delusion of the Sole Superpower moment began to dissolve with the collapse
of Lehman Brothers in 2008, leading to corporate collapse on an endemic basis. When
China yoked Riyadh and Tehran into a deal, the West wrung its hands in anguish.
The consequences of the war were clear as daylight. The main issue of the world
order having been settled, the pugilists are now tiring each other out in the
battlefield.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-7104829163774061292023-06-16T15:27:00.001+05:302023-06-16T15:27:30.997+05:30Far Right Gallops Away Riding Manufactured Consent<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">Far Right Gallops Away Riding Manufactured Consent</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The alarming
surge of the far-right in Germany, according to the latest opinion polls,
should not surprise the political class who have with diligent deliberation
conjured up Hitler’s spirit.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Remember how
the German ruling class, as the engine of EU, laid-low the Left-Wing Syriza
which brought a 43 year old Alexis Tsipras to power as Prime Minister of
Greece. The Greeks had tossed up a Socialist experiment. No, said Germany and
the EU. This experiment shall not be allowed to prosper. Revert to austerity or
we shall not pick up your debt. The pity is Tsipras turned out to be too
weak-kneed. He buckled, demoralizing the left across the board.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In Spain,
where Franco hovers over public life like Banquo’s ghost, people, accustomed to
being obedient, suddenly showed spunk. Prime Minister of the right wing Peoples
Party, Mariano Rajoy broke all records of corruption in the construction
sector. This kind of corruption had become the fashion in this phase of
accelerated globalization but Rajoy went a few yards past the post. People,
groaning under a tainted democracy worked hard to remove the pollution in the next
elections. Under the leadership of a 39 year old Pablo Iglesias, a Spanish
variant of the communists burst upon the scene. This was Podemos or We Can, extracted
from Barack Obama’s slogan which worked in the 2008 elections in the US.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In the 2015
elections the right wing Peoples Party and the Socialists lost relatively but
emerged first and second. The party which created an earthquake by cornering 5
million votes and 69 seats was Podemos. Spain rubbed its eyes in disbelief. How
could Europe’s fourth largest economy be “allowed” to be managed by a coalition
of which Communists were a part? Franco would turn in his grave.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The very idea
had to be killed. The Peoples Party and the Socialists conspired. By refusing a
coalition slot to Podemos, they forced another election. The turmoil in Spain
which had been originally brought about by Rajoy’s unspeakable corruption was
overlooked. Rajoy was reinstalled. Anything but the Leftist ogre.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Not only was
Podemos successfully thwarted but rivals like Ciudadanos under a young leader
like Albert Rivera were promoted. They had deceptively similar aesthetics as
Podemos but in a capitalist mould – “Podemos of the right.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Accelerated
globalization after the Soviet collapse was a shot in the arm for capitalism.
This, in turn generated arbitrary inequalities which Thomas Piketty’s Capital
in the 21</span><sup style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif";">st</sup><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> century explains in clinical detail. These inequalities
resulted in such movements as “Occupy Wall Street”. The Republican Tea Party
was a response.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">People adapt
to change but Establishments are obstinately resistant. Additionally they have
the power to shape events by their control of the media, refashion public
opinion. In fact the popular will is anathema to entrenched Establishments. The
consent has to be fashioned. People make economic demands, jobs, wages, price
control, social welfare. These have the potential of making drastic reductions
in corporate income. I know all this is elementary. Why then are such
elementary truths edited out?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">For
corporates, it makes enormous sense to employ every possible trick, the media
above all, to divert people’s attention from economic issues to issues of
identity, minorities, migrants, race or caste and communalism in India. This
continuous tussle between Establishments and the people leads to one result:
muscular establishments emerge on top. The popular will is the missing
ingredient in what are advertised as democracies. Given this perspective, the
Liz Truss type democracy versus autocracy formulation to define international
relations rings false and hollow. We are living in hollowed out democracies,
but for how long? Well the latest German poll points to a model, in the short
term at least.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">And it is not
something happening in distant Europe only. After defeat of the BJP in
Karnataka there is some life in the opposition unity schemes and yet the
discourse on Narendra Modi’s invincibility does not go away. It will not go
away because the controls of the “Modi, Modi, Modi” echo chamber are with Modi.
Did you watch the masterly choreography of the inauguration of the new
Parliament building? It made you “gasp and close your eyes”. Yes, Modi will
look invincible so long as the media keeps him in that focus. And the media is
in the hands of big business who are in the hands of Modi and the other way
around.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The global
media and the one which is in the Prime Minister’s thrall are cousins born from
the same seed and at the same time. The fall of the Soviet Union brought about
the Sole Superpower moment which required a global media. This was inaugurated
by Peter Arnett from the terrace of Baghdad’s Al Rasheed hotel during Operation
Desert Storm of 1992.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The global
media did not reach India until a few years later. The fall of the Babari
Masjid on December 6, 1992 was only covered by Newstrack a weekly video
magazine launched by the India Today group. The mushroom growth of independent
channels is a phenomena of the mid 90s, when the neo liberal economic policies
of P.V. Narasimha Rao and Finance Minister Manmohan Singh boosted businesses
which demanded channels to accommodate the advertising which the new economy
was attracting.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The burgeoning
TV scene enlarged the consumer society which is what the new economy was
galloping towards – a tinsel middle class, creating a huge imbalance between
Lakshmi and Saraswati. It was all custom made for the corporates, multiplying
billionaires – far away from the roti, kapda, makan, education, health care which
are basic for a developing country where an overwhelming majority are poor.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The
politician, corporates and the channels are together in diverting the poor away
from their condition towards the glorious inheritance they been wilfully denied
by “The Other”, the migrant from another race, another country.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">New strategic
choices imposed by the unending Ukraine war has introduce further fertility for
the far right to prosper everywhere – Germany, Vox in Spain next month. And who
can ignore Trump of the Howdy Modi chant in Houston.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-67721371071986679262023-06-09T18:27:00.002+05:302023-06-09T18:27:56.707+05:30Hard For Someone From Lucknow to Accept That South Is Gentler<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Hard
For Someone From Lucknow to Accept That South Is Gentler</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">“People are gentler, and drawing rooms
are refreshingly free of tense conversations on communalism.” My wife was
summing up her impressions as we caught the flight to Delhi after an extended
stay in Ooty and Bengaluru during the recent State elections.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">I consider myself privileged to have
been installed as the regional editor of the Indian Express from 1979 to 84,
headquartered in Chennai. I supervised editions in Bengaluru, Vijayawada,
Hyderabad and Kochi and all the districts in between. In Kerala, the principal
News Bureau was situated within a stone throw from E.M.S. Namboodripad’s house
which provided me with easy access to one of the finest political minds I met
in fifty years of journalism. The great foreign correspondent, James Cameron’s
advice began to make so much sense after every conversation with E.M.S. “Whenever
I travel to a country to cover a major event, I first visit the local communist
party office where the background to the story has been analyzed ahead of other
parties. All I need to do is to sift out the ideology and I have the outlines
of a first rate situation report in my notebook.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">At the bureau in Thiruvananthapuram or
the main publishing centre in Kochi, the editorial staff worked with
extraordinary diligence on days when a renowned Kathakali artist, like
Kalamandalam Hyderali, was performing. Extra work was put in earlier is the day
so that the scribes could be free for the show.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">My colleagues knew the Katha (story),
nritya (dance) and Natya (drama) like the back of their hands. The culture
sustained by Urdu as the central column of what came to be known as our “Ganga-Jamuni”
tehzeeb, was disrupted by Partition and a scramble for western education as the
guarantor for bread on our tables. The South was spared these travails.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Partition or the primacy of English for
jobs created no turbulence in Kerala. Muslims came to Kerala not as rulers from
Central Asia but as traders from Arabia. There was no urge to impose a culture,
as in the north, but to adapt to local cultures as a means for expanding trade.
It was because of this enthusiastic acceptance of Malayalam that resulted in
Muslims excelling in poetry, literature and all the performing arts including
cinema in which Prem Nazir entered the Guinness book for having acted in a
record 750 films.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Considering that M.G. Ramachandran (MGR)
in Tamil Nadu and N.T. Rama Rao (NTR) in Andhra Pradesh built lasting political
careers based on cinematic charisma, why did Prem Nazir not end up dominating
Kerala politics? Little reflection provided the answer: the Kerala voter has
been too politicized by an expansive and deep communist movement and too
educated mostly because of the influence of the Church.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It is not commonly known that the first
mosque in Kerala was built in 629 AD, three years before Prophet Mohammad’s
death, making it among the earliest mosques anywhere. It was built by a Hindu
nobleman, Cheraman Perumal. He was simply filling a need: increasing number of
Arab traders needed a place of worship.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Not only is there no evidence of Urdu
being promoted except in areas under the Nizam of Hyderabad’s vast reach, there
are numerous incidents of prodigious works in Malayalam or Tamil by Muslim
scholars like Justice Ismail in Chennai who was regarded the sole authority on
Kamba Ramayanam. He was the single source for scholarship on the subject.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Likewise, to C.N. Maulana of Kerala goes
the credit for having broken a taboo imposed by the clergy: God’s language is
Arabic and the Quran can therefore not be translated. It was this kind of
rigidity that Urdu poet Yaas Yagana Changezi had debunked:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">“Samajh mein kuchch naheen ata <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Parhe jaane se kya hasil<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Namazon mein hain kuchch <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Maani to pardesi zubaan kyon ho?”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">(If there is to be meaning to your
prayers, why should prayers be in a foreign language?)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In my appreciation of the South, my
friend, the remarkable cartoonist Abu Abraham, played no mean role across the
many conversations we had. His angry outburst on one occasion surprised me
because a joke I had told him “smacked of uneducated, North Indian prejudice.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">I had just returned from JNU’s first convocation
addressed by Balraj Sahni, film actor and a leading member of the Progressive
Movement. The speed with which All India Radio was incorporating “difficult”
Hindi in its news bulletins had elicited a quip from Sahni’s Bollywood friend,
the comedian Johnny Walker.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">“Ab yeh naheen kehna chahiye ki aap
Hindi mein samachar suniye” Sahni quoted Johnny Walker, “balki yeh kehna
chahiye ki ab samachar mein Hindi suniye.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">(Newsreaders should now say ‘listen to Hindi
in the news instead of news in Hindi.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Abu was livid. “You, North Indians must
know that a more sanskritized Hindi is that much more intelligible to us.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">That all Indian languages, with the
solitary exception of Tamil, have some proportion of Sanskrit, helped me
understand cultural variations in India that much more. I cannot claim to have
understood anything of the great Trinity of Carnatic music, Thyagaraja, Syama Sastri
and Muthuswami Dikshitar but I became sufficiently acquainted with the form of
their verse. I even visited the great Veena player S. Balachander for advice on
elementary Carnatic sangeet.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">One day the door of my third floor
office on Mount Road opened and in walked Balachander in a high state of
agitation. Renowned vocalist Semmangudi, he alleged, had the patronage of the
Travancore Palace. So what? I asked. He is lobbying in Madras to elevate the
musician prince Swathi Thirunal to the level of the great Trinity. He wants Thirunal’s
photograph alongside the great Trinity in the Music Academy, virtually the headquarters
of all the performing arts in South India. Beads of perspiration covered his
forehead. “This will happen over my dead body” he said. He lifted both his
hands and brought them down on my table with such force that the glass top
splintered.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-4900875454473367762023-06-02T15:22:00.000+05:302023-06-02T15:22:07.077+05:30IPL Games, Cheer Girls Et All, Will Kill Cricket’s Character<p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">IPL
Games, Cheer Girls Et All, Will Kill Cricket’s Character<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Call me a dinosaur if you like but as an
amateur cricket lover I have been firmly averse to Indian Premier League
despite peer pressure of friends, family which includes my granddaughter.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">That is why it was like another fall of
man when I found myself sitting up in bed because an extraordinary happening on
TV kept me riveted. It was compelling beyond belief.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Shubhman Gill was stroking, not hitting,
pace and spin off his toes, driving between fielders with geometrical precision,
cutting, pulling, hooking on his feet like a ballet dancer. Except for the
clothes he wore, there was nothing he did which was outside the classical mould.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The first problem with IPL is the sartorial
garishness. White flannels against the green grass as the perfect colour scheme
has been smudged by a carnival of colours.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The cricket which burns in my memory
goes back to my school days. As soon as the visiting team, say, the West
Indies, was announced, out came my scrap book the size of a broadsheet. The
first warm up match was in Pune, mostly against the Cricket Board President’s
eleven. Then followed a full fledged five test series. Why have we lost these?
All the venues were capital cities except for Kanpur.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Why had my hometown, Lucknow, the capital
of UP been overlooked? Lucknow not having a test venue, was part of punishment
meted out by the British for the city’s dogged resistance during 1857 war of
Independence. Denial of a major sports venue was only a part of other major
denials, like the High Court and premier university to Allahabad; industry to
Kanpur – hence the Green Park venue.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The India-West Indies match was the
beginning my romance with test cricket, white against green, Wesley Hall’s
menacing run upto the wicket and Subhash Gupte’s leg breaks, sometimes turning
at right angles were delightful experiences. Gupte took nine wickets in that
match. The Hunte, Holt, Kanhai, Sobers, Butcher line up found him unplayable but
only in the first innings as you will see. It would be interesting to know how
Sobers compares Gupte with Shane Warne. He saw both and I believe there is something
to compare in the huge turn they extracted.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">What has remained a lasting memory is a
nugget of a knock by Rohan Kanhai, one of the three most pleasing knocks in all
my life. None of them were centuries.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Gupte as I mentioned earlier had wrapped
up the West Indies for 222. One of cricket’s coincidences, India too was all
out for exactly the same score – 222.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">When Hunte and Holt walked out for the
Windies second inning, the game had acquired the looks of a one innings test
match. Then, in a flash, Holt was gone for a duck. Hunte returned to the
pavilion, also for a duck. Both the wickets were taken by the stand-in unlikely
opening bowler – Polly Umrigar. The situation was dire and Kanhai, who had come
at the fall of Holt’s wicket had not even taken his stance. At the fall of
Hunte, Garfield Sobers had come in at the other end. A hush fell over the
ground as all of us sat on wooden planks, biting our nails.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Umrigar, who will never again bask in
glory as an opening bowler, turned around from his mark to finish the over.
Kanhai stroked a cover drive, bisecting fielders like there was a compass
attached to his bat. An on drive, a square cut, pull, leg glance, all evaded the
fielders with nonchalant ease. And every shot went to the boundary caressing
the grass.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">With Sobers watching at the other end,
Kanhai’s miniature knock of 40 plus had made the bowling look so easy that
Sobers went onto 190 plus, boosting the team’s total well past 400 and went
onto win the match. Sober’s near double century was a treat, ofcourse, but it
was Kanhai’s cameo that instilled confidence in the Windies dressing room. In
some ways Kanhai’s miniature has remained more precious to me than Sober’s
imposing mural.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The other two cameo knocks of my life
were played by Pakistan’s Maqsood Ahmad (Maxi, as he was called) and Neil
Harvey in the venues of my boyhood, Lucknow and Kanpur. Yes, a temporary
stadium on wooden planks was somehow conceded to the great sports
administrator, Habul Mukherjee. I became the recipient of Habul Dada’s largesse
– a pass for the player’s pavilion, a reward for having, done an awkward chore.
I arranged a plaque for the ground with “Ladies Urinal” emblazoned on it.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Maqsood’s innings played the classical
role which number 4 batsmen play after a few quick wickets have fallen. With aristocratic
disdain he bisected the field all around. In the evening, students of Islamia
College called him names, to his face, not because he thrashed Indian bowling
but because he was drinking beer in the open bar of the Royal hotel where the
team stayed. A Pakistani drinking was anathema to the Indian Muslim, trying to
find his feet.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Harvey’s was a masterly knock of sheer magic
against Jasu Patel’s off breaks had Richie Benaud’s Australians hopping like
rabbits on an admittedly under prepared pitch. But Harvey, who was the youngest
batting addition to Bradman’s famed eleven, simply stepped out, met Patel on the
half valley and, magically found the gaps like he had a photograph of the Oval
in his head.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The lyric of all the innings I treasure
consisted of silken ground strokes. My ground stroke bias was enthusiastically endorsed
in Port of Spain by as thorough a connoisseur as Gerry Gomez who came to India
in 1948-49. He was involved in the run out when Weekes was on 90. Had he
completed his hundred, it would have been an all-time record – 6 centuries in 5
tests.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">“He had something of the great Don in
him.” Gomez continued “since Bradman there has not been another like him.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Let me, then, drive home my point. In 48
test matches Sir Everton Weekes hit only two sixes.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p><p></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-70317298789970711892023-05-26T18:27:00.005+05:302023-05-26T18:27:58.646+05:30Syria Reentering Arab League Brings US Down Another Notch<p><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Syria
Reentering Arab League Brings US Down Another Notch</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The irony of Volodymyr Zelensky making
an appearance at the Arab League Summit in Jeddah to witness Syria’s President,
Bashar al Assad reoccupy his chair in the League, appears to have been lost on
most. Arab leaders, accustomed to US hegemony, have switched because they are
convinced of American decline. Syria is the beneficiary of this appraisal.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">After 20 years of occupying Afghanistan,
10 years of total control of Iraq, Americans came a cropper in a most humiliating
fashion. How then did they dream up a scenario that they would be able to bring
about a regime change in Damascus, by mobilizing regional Arab countries to
embark on cross border terrorism? The other name for such action is “proxy war”
which has not yet bruised Vladimir Putin.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">As Ukraine is being destroyed so were
the ancient Biblical sites of Syria. But Western failure in weakening the
regime was manifest in several episodes. For example, take the grilling Gen.
Lloyd Austin was subjected to by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, for
having botched up a $500 million project to train “moderate militants” who
would be set upon Assad’s forces. What happened was something of a tragi-comedy.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">After having received rigorous training
plus expensive weaponry, the soldiers for the Free World vamoosed in the cover
of darkness along with weapons and ammunition. Intelligence agencies tracked
the treacherous trainees in the ranks of Jabal al Nusra, which represented
ghoulish Islamism on the scale of Al Qaeda or the Islamic State. The officer in
charge of the training was the then Gen. Austin, now Secretary of Defence. During
the Senate hearings Austin was asked: “How many of the militants trained by us
are still fighting for our cause?” Austin was tongue tied. After a long pause
he mumbled. “Four or five.” Ashton Carter, Obama’s Secretary of Defence, was in
tears, all in front of cameras.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The moral that Zelensky should have
grasped was this: Well entrenched regimes cannot be toppled by proxy wars and Vladimir
Putin is several times more powerful than Assad.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">“Putin cannot be brought down by a proxy
war.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The other major lesson for Kiev is the
change of heart in the Arab world. Assad’s arrival in Jeddah was no tepid entry.
The Syrian flag fluttered all along the route. Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman
has wisely concluded that efforts to dethrone Assad have failed. Strong head
winds in that project came in the form of Russian intervention in 2015.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Russian intervention in Syria was, in
its audacity, comparable to their taking control of Pristina airport a little
ahead of NATO in 1999. A clash was prevented and Pristina airport became a
unique venue where Russia and NATO coexist since 1999.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Gen. Wesley Clark, the NATO commander
was determined to reverse the situation at the airport. His Deputy Mike
Jackson, part of the British contingent in NATO refused to obey Clark. “I am
not going to start World War III for you.” Gen. Clark’s almost uncontainable anger
and determination to teach the Russians a lesson was, to my mind the earliest military
demonstration of the “Sole Super Power” mind set.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">So complicated had this little known
episode in far-off Kosovo become that secretary of State Madeline Albright persuaded
her Policy Planning Chief, Morton Halperin to launch a major study of the
recent history of Kosovo. Halperin invited his scholar friend from Princeton,
Richard Ullman to lead the study for which space was created in the State department.
The point to note is the Russians refusal to back down even as the Sole Super
Power proclaimed its arrival. In fact NATO had already been brought into play
in 1995. This was when Serbian excesses against the Kosovo Muslims had
increased. That’s another story.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Southern Slavic ethnic links between
Serbs and Russians plus their affiliation to the Orthodox Church have already
been factored into Zelensky’s retaliatory moves. For instance, he ordered Orthodox
Priests to leave the centuries old Kiev Church compound. The accusation is that
these Priests and worshipers have links with Churches in Moscow. This is a sensitive
matter. Balkans may well be the turf where the Ukraine war will be pushed by
Zelensky.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Since it is presumed that Zelensky is
still being directed by the US, could he, in desperation, unilaterally push the
fighting outside Ukraine, possibly even into the Balkans. My guess is that
President Biden is so preoccupied with internal crises that he will not have
the attention span to improvise on Ukraine, particularly since the script so
far has gone woefully against all the media boast and bluster.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Indeed, Zelensky should know that the
entire Arab World has switched away from the US camp for a very simple reason. Whatever
residual hope there was of US hegemony surviving has evaporated with leaders
like Emanuel Macron already proceeding on a world order sans western dominance.
Arabs, Africans, Latin Americans, even South Asians, all have seen a multipolar
world swim into their ken. This explains Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, or the
Syrian return to the Arab League. After Turkish election results are announced
after May 28, an Ankara-Damascus rapprochement is also in the cards.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It takes my breath away, the rapidity
with which events have loosened American control everywhere except, presumably,
the UK. In this last instance it is always difficult to find who is controlling
whom. Are the experience of Empire and exhausted imperialism in competition?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Let me place myself in Assad’s most
elegant adviser, Bouthaina Shaaban’s office in the Presidential Palace. I have
seen US ambassador, Stephen Ford and his French counterpart join dissident
groups in Homs, Hama and Dera. “Don’t you have any rules for diplomats?” Bouthaina’s
response is astonishing. “Just shows how penetrated we are.” That was 12 years
ago.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A former US ambassador to West Asia, Ed
Peck said something which I am tempted to repeat.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">“I have been dismayed by the
accolades and support given to Ambassador Ford, our man in – and now out of
Syria, for stepping well out of the traditional and appropriate role of a
diplomat and actively encouraging the revolt/insurrection/sectarian
strife/outside meddling”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-63152310606793658472023-05-19T16:11:00.002+05:302023-05-19T16:15:06.657+05:30Is India Truly “Bad Bet” For US As Ashley Tellis Alleges?<p><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Is India Truly “Bad Bet” For US As Ashley Tellis
Alleges?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed
Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The signals
were out much before President Biden cancelled his participation in the QUAD
summit in Sydney due on May 24.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">After two
decades of intense India-US courtship the American foreign policy expert who
has more or less chaperoned the suitors, has come to the dire conclusion that
India likes to be cuddled but will not consummate.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In a revealing
article in Foreign Affairs magazine earlier this month, Ashley Tellis, Senior
Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Tata Chair for
International Peace, has said it quite bluntly in the headline itself:
“America’s Bad Bet on India”. He clarifies further: “New Delhi will not side
with Washington against Beijing.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The importance
of the statement lies in the author’s background. When President George W Bush
handpicked an experienced China hand, Robert Blackwill, as his Ambassador to
New Delhi, a key member of the envoy’s entourage to New Delhi was the brilliant
Mumbai born student who proceed to do his Ph.D. in Political Science from
Chicago University.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">“Striking
Asymmetries”, Tellis’ masterly book on nuclear transitions in the South Asian
region and beyond qualified him to play a key role in helping draft the
landmark Indo-US nuclear deal on 2005. The central figure in the Indian team
negotiating the deal was S.Jaishankar, today India’s foreign minister.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The
intricacies in the policy document required expertise of the highest order,
which is what Tellis and Jaishankar provided at hand. Once in the course of
normal bureaucratic transfers, Jaishankar was posted as High Commissioner to
Singapore. So indispensable had he made himself to the nuclear deal that
bureaucratic procedures were subverted. Jaishankar was reverted back to the
South Block to see the nuclear deal through.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">This elaborate
background is to establish Tellis as an insider who has a grip on the details
of the Indo-US relations at least since the Bush years. When he describes India
as a bad bet for America’s Indo-Pacific policy, New Delhi better take note.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The timing of
Tellis’ article is also important. He has blown the whistle at a time when the
administration of President Joe Biden was not only moving along the path of
Indo-US relations which Tellis has grown so skeptical about, but the Biden
administration has launched “an ambitious new initiative to expand India’s
access to cutting edge technologies.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Further the
administration has deepened its defence co-operation and made the QUAD
(Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) a pillar of its regional strategy. Tellis is
worried that the US has overlooked “India’s democratic erosion and the
unhelpful policy choices such as refusal to condemn Moscow’s ongoing aggression
in Ukraine.” Washington has done “all this on the presumption that New Delhi
will respond favourably when Washington asks for a favour during a regional
crisis involving China.” The reality is quite to the contrary: Is Washington being
cuckolded?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Tellis is
convinced that Washington’s current expectations of India are misplaced. He
cites reasons for this state of affairs: “India’s significant weaknesses
compared with China, its physical proximity to it, guarantee that New Delhi
will never involve itself in any US confrontation with Beijing that does not
directly threaten its own security.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">“India values
co-operation with Washington for the tangible benefits it brings but does not
believe that it must, in turn, materially support the United States in any
crisis – even one involving a common threat such as China.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A section of
the China punditry in India, on the other hand, veers around to the view that
India is in Fool’s paradise if it imagines that the US would come rushing to
its rescue should a real conflict break out with China. To the contrary, the US
may goad India into a conflict in pursuit of its effective encirclement of China.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Both, Tellis
and Jaishankar are aware of the depth of military relationship. Indeed the two
have helped navigate large areas of this relationship. But over the years the
US’s capacity to dictate terms has diminished.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Is it possible
that Tellis has overlooked the fact that it was the Sole Superpower moment when
discussions on the nuclear deal with India gave bilateral relations an
extraordinary boost? Things have changed. Tellis came to India at a time when
the neo cons around George W Bush were well and truly embarked on the American
century. The US could dictate terms then.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">That section
of US foreign policy elite of which Tellis is a member, and which is
disenchanted with what was once a key relationship must spell out the causes of
this disappointment. A simple reason is that the relationship was conceived when
the US was the Sole Superpower. No one could afford to be out of America’s
orbit.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Tellis is
giving vent to his disappointment when US dominance is more or less over. In a
multipolar world, nation’s will drive harder bargains with the US.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It turns out
that Tellis and Jaishankar have, even before the publication of the article,
had exchanges on the theme including on the social media. Both agree that
Indo-US relations have, in recent decades, reached a new high in military
co-operation particularly. But a burgeoning relationship suddenly chokes on
such important issues as “interoperability”. The Pentagon wants to be able to integrate
foreign military in combined operations as part of “coalition warfare”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">“India rejects
the idea that its armed forces will participate in any combined military
operation.” In not amalgamating totally, India retains its political autonomy. That
which leaves the US dissatisfied, is a matter of pride for the Indian establishment.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">“Such
differences will arise with a country like the US” which goes around the world
in search of alliances, said Jaishankar in a TV discussion with Tellis. “Take
the QUAD” for instance. Two of QUAD members, Australia and Japan, are allies of
the US.” India is only a partner and would like to retain that relationship.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Are these
differences in the backdrop against which President Biden has cancelled his participation
in the QUAD summit in Sydney? He is attending the G7 in Japan where ironically all
the QUAD leaders will be present.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-84426043667001586352023-05-12T16:29:00.001+05:302023-05-12T16:29:14.715+05:30Court Provides Level Playing Field: Let The Politicians Play Fair<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Court
Provides Level Playing Field: Let The Politicians Play Fair</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The suffocating pall settled on the
nation lifted in three quick bursts last week. True, for the Karnataka election
results we only had exit polls but all six results favouring the Congress can’t
all be wrong. And the almighty slap the Supreme Court has administered across
the face of the Lt. Governor of Delhi must make his head spin. The third upset
caused by the Supreme Court was in Maharashtra where the Governor and the
Speaker played foul.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Few elected leaders have suffered
humiliation at the hands of successive Lt. Governor’s quite clearly at the
instance of the union government, as AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal. The Supreme Court
has rewarded him for his courage, equanimity and vast funds of endurance. He
kept his head when the Lt. Governor was losing his.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In his very first election to the Delhi
Assembly in 2013, he came on top as the largest single party with 28 seats. A
mortified Congress which had been in power for three terms, entangled AAP in a
coalition. “Hum to doobe hai sanam, tumko bhi le doobenge” (I am sinking but will
take you with me)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">By coalescing with the Congress, AAP
would lose some of its freshness and sheen. Also, by sheer association, some of
the Congress negatives would rub off on AAP, smudging its novelty. “We will
keep them nailed on the coalition until they are destroyed” said Arvinder Singh
Lovely, former Delhi Congress Chief. Not just Lovely, it was every Congressman,
BJP functionary’s dream to reduce this Johnny-come-Lately into an incompetent,
ineffective cypher.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">AAP’s sudden emergence
and rise was scary.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The February 2015 results jolted not
just the two ruling class parties in Delhi but the entire national political
spectrum. AAP was 67 of the 70 seats – an unbreakable record. AAP’s record
breaking performance induced insecurities. The Congress hated AAP more than the
BJP for having displaced it. The BJP, likewise, loathed it more than the Congress.
Its social welfare policies set in a deceptively capitalist frame were a danger
for BJP’s corporate backers. AAP had to be stopped – by hook or by crook.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">What came in most handy to pulverize the
elected government was Justice Ashok Bhushan’s 2019 split verdict. Bhushan said
the “services” were totally outside the purview of the State government.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The accelerated delivery of education,
Health care, water and electricity as welfare measures in double quick time
unnerved the compromised political class across the board. The Lt. Governors
got into action. No more brownie points for AAP, they said. Ofcourse door to
door delivery of food items would be blocked – any measure that enhances AAP’s
popularity among the poor would be scuttled.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">They, AAP, must be rendered unelectable
– any further. Then Punjab was taken away from the Congress. Heels were dug in
deep for the Delhi Municipal Corporation but, lo and behold, AAP came up trumps
once again. By the Lt. Governor’s rule book, electoral victory in the
Corporation did not mean that AAP could have its Mayor. Nominated members were
brought into play to wrench the Mayorship away from AAP. Scuffles broke out in
the house and the Lt. Governor, like Nero, watched. Arvind Kejriwal’s list of
complaints against the union government and its representative, the Lt.
Governor, would be a formidable document even if he deletes such trivia as being
held back from attending prestigious conferences overseas.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">One good news begets another. The Rouse
Avenue Court has released on bail two persons detained in the so called Liquor
license scandal. The 85 page order does not establish any financial wrong doing
leave alone the alleged Rs.100 crores supposed to have been diverted by AAP for
its Goa campaign.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">If this is a trend setter, Kejriwal’s
second in command, Manish Sisodia and Minister Satyendra Jain may soon be out
on bail. Nothing has been proved against either.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Has the Chief Justice of India, D.Y.
Chandrachud reigned in Narendra Modi’s Ashwamedh which was freely roaming the
territories to expand the Empire’s boundaries?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The restoration of legitimate power to
the National Capital Region will have far reaching consequences. Power has,
after all, been restored to a party which has in record time – a decade since
its inception acquired the status of a national party.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Political parties in India take time to
consolidate their constituencies. AAP is an exception which is one of the
reasons why other parties find it dangerous. Anchored to a pragmatic welfarism,
AAP is not circumscribed by an ideology which is both an advantage and a handicap.
For example the party’s chilling indifference to the fate of Muslims during the
communal riots which gripped North East Delhi in 2020. This alienated the party
totally from Muslims. The community was already disenchanted by the temple
locks opening, announcement of Ram Rajya as policy and finally the mosque
demolition – all these decisively distanced the Muslims from the Congress. Indeed
the Muslim abandoned the Congress enmasse.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Voting for the BJP was never an option.
In the circumstance a relatively new force like AAP would have been well placed
for the minorities had it not exposed itself as a shirker on the Muslim issue.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">At a time when the Congress is averse to
being seen even with a solitary Muslim on the platform because such a sight
would be grist to the BJP’s polarization mill, was AAP’s indifference to the
carnage justifiable as practical politics? Difficult to imagine civilized Indians
degenerate into barbaric voters. Politics has been putrefied not by voters but
politicians.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The Supreme Court has by its recent
judgements established, without the shadow of a doubt, that there is muscle
available to uphold the constitution and the rule of law. It is the politician
who must grasp the dictum that, on a matter of principle he who fights but loses
shall eventually win. Prince Lazar of the battle of Kosovo and Hussain of
Karbala are two admittedly superhuman examples beyond human imitation, but
model heroes nevertheless.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The Court has provided a level playing
field. It is upto the politician to shift gears and play fair according to the
rule book.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-91505606171105835092023-05-05T18:19:00.003+05:302023-05-05T18:19:47.859+05:30Congress Is Ahead In Karnataka But Hanuman May Trip Them<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Congress
Is Ahead In Karnataka But Hanuman May Trip Them</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed
Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Salman Khan as a bhakt of Bajrang Bali,
restores a lost Pakistani girl to her parents virtually on the Line of Control.
Kabir Khan, the imaginative director of Bajrangi Bhaijaan, the film which
brought the two countries together on an unbelievable scale, now has his role
cut out for him in poll bound Karnataka.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">State elections are just a few days away
and Bajrang Bali has been introduced into active electioneering by the Congress
whizz kid, Randeep Surjewala. He was taking a jibe at hate mongering by the
Bajrang Dal. So, he said, the Congress would ban the Bajrang Dal, should it
come to power in the state. He has a talent for blowing sky high such issues
which can best be handled in undertones. Remember how, with the self confidence
of a purohit, he declared Rahul Gandhi a “janeudhari” Brahmin, opening up a
dubious caste debate.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">No sooner had Surjewala mentioned
Bajrang Dal than Prime Minister Modi, hovering on the state like an eagle (30
rallies and roadshows are billed for him), swooped on the “anti Hanuman tirade”
whipped up by the Congress. “So, they want to imprison Lord Hanuman?” said he,
grinding his teeth.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A journalist came running to my hotel
room. “Look, the Congress has handed them an issue on which Modi will go to
town.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Every Hanuman temple in the state echoed
to the sound of kirtans. Not to be left behind the Congress’s vokaliga
candidate, D.K. Shivkumar raised the stakes even further. Should he become Chief
Minister, he would build Hanuman Mandir in every district of Karnataka. For the
formidable builders lobby this was honeyed music.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The BJP expectation is that, in the last
lap of the campaign, Modi’s rhetorical talent plus Lord Hanuman will give them
the tailwind to touch the finishing line. Seldom have I seen a major political
party so completely dwarfed by a leader like Modi. There may be disgust with
the BJP across classes. My taxi driver or that business executive smoking a
Punch cigar had the same comment “Modi will win it for them.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Atal Behari
Vajpayee had a natural charisma. M.G.R., Jayalalitha, N.T. Rama Rao’s charisma
derived from a combination of factors: cinematic glamour plus linguistic
regionalism. That Amitabh Bachchan’s charisma never took off in the realm of
politics was for a simple reason: his undoubted cinematic glamour did not have linguistic
regionalism to boost it.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Modi’s charisma has been choreographed by
the media. Every mainstream channel, English or language newspaper is captive,
to his persona. For a deeply religious country, Modi’s omnipresence recalls, “jidhar
dekhta hoon, udhar tu hi tu hai” (Your glory permeates any direction I look.)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">This would imply that the BJP will romp
home. And yet, that is not the way it works. Modi is an advantage no other
party has. But the BJP government in the state has been extracting 40% of all
government contract payments from state contractors, and the contractors have
revealed this unchallenged truth on live TV. The burden becomes too heavy even
for Modi to carry through. And the 40% scandal is only one of the negatives
attached to the BJP in this campaign.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">One is familiar with the exodus of
Congressmen to the BJP. But in Karnataka traffic is taking place in the reverse
direction – notable leaders like Jagdish Shetter and Laxman Sarvadi have left the
BJP for the Congress. This is a huge psychological setback.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">All of this should give the Congress an
advantage, even though observers suggest the party campaign suffered from an
excessive focus on Modi and his misdemeanours. What the Congress would do for
the people was not persuasively put across. Even so, there is a certain bounce
in the Congressmen’s tread.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">There is another fly in the Congress
ointment. The party has two aspirants for the job of Chief Minister: Siddaramaiah,
a lower caste Uruba community, and D.K. Shivkumar, an agriculturalist vokaliga.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The assembly has 224 seats. Supposing the
Congress tally is 80. Should the leadership confer the Chief Ministership on
Siddaramaiah in anticipation of a coalition, why Shivkumar and his supporters
would (if he has sufficient numbers) not be lured by a BJP in case the party is
short of numbers. Such are the speculations in the ranks of nervous BJP
sympathizers. BJP spokesman, S. Prakash spoke to me with the brazenness of
someone determined to create an impression of super self confidence: “We are
ruthless; ofcourse we shall splurge money to win over candidates. We have more
money than all the other parties.” Such speech does not a victor make. To the
contrary it betrays weakness.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">There are figures galore, and any number
of combinations, all pointing to a fierce election. A notable fact is this: there
are many more people predicting a Congress victory than a BJP one. Yes, the
third party the JDS could make for a thrilling entry should numbers encourage
lengthy coalition parleys.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">To Surjewala goes the authorship of the
controversial statement: we shall ban the Bajrang Dal. No sooner did the story break
than Shivkumar charged off to the Hanuman temple, with cameramen in tow to
commit him to posterity as a Bhakt. He announced that the Congress will create
an Anjanadri Development Board to develop the birthplace of Lord Hanuman on the
hills of Koppal in Karnataka.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The person who must be feeling left out
of the excessive Hanuman Bhakti must be AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal who first started
the tradition of reciting Hanuman Chalisa at the drop of a hat.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The credit must go to the BJP for having
hollowed out almost all political parties of their secular pretensions. Surjewala’s
anti Bajrang Dal projection was aimed at luring Muslim votes away from the JDS
which, if inflated, might play the monkey between quarrelling cats. No sooner
had Surjewala shot the bolt, than the Congress was distancing itself from the controversial
statement. Atleast since Indira Gandhi’s 1983 Jammu election, the Congress has
learnt the lesson of shepherding Hindu votes with care and ignoring the Muslim
votes proportionately.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-29912692028916743652023-04-14T18:13:00.001+05:302023-04-14T18:13:24.021+05:30Counting Winners And Losers In Ukraine Is Becoming Easier<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Counting
Winners And Losers In Ukraine Is Becoming Easier</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">My great Aunt Nani Ammi, in her fertile
imagination had dreamt up war as a tennis match where soldiers shot at each
other until dusk, after which it was time for tea and exchanging of samosas and
pastries across the trenches.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Therefore, when my first khaki uniform,
web belt, beret and army shoes were packed in a black trunk in readiness for my
coverage of Chhamb in the Western sector during the 1971 Pakistan war, Nani Ammi
lifted the Quran in her right hand, a sort of holy gateway under which I was to
pass.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">She then produced two Imam Zamins or
amulets. One she tied around my right arm as guarantor of my protection. The other
amulet I was to carry for my cousin Akbar, a major on the other side, who she
was convinced would meet me at night when the guns fall silent.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">My great aunt’s touching naivette about
warfare came back to me as if it were yesterday. A cocksure anchor, updating
the Ukraine conflict, rolled her eyes and asked knowingly. “Who is winning the
war?” Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not yet thrown in the towel. Vladimir Putin has
not faced an anti war rebellion in the Kremlin. President Joe Biden has not yet
leaked the Pentagon report which prohibits upgradation of weapons to Ukraine. None
of this has happened. Is the war at a deadlock? Has nothing happened in over a
year since Russian troops crossed into Ukraine on February 24, 2022?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The date of the Russian invasion will be
prominent in history books for millennia. But in my private notebook will be even
more important dates which, according to my lights, begin with partnership “without
limits” signed in the Kremlin by Xi Jinping and Putin plus the “new era” in
relations between the two spelt out in sequence by Xi during Putin’s visit to
Beijing on February 4. While the pretty anchor is inviting viewers to delve
into the deepest layers of thought to come up with a victor in Ukraine, may I commend
to her the thought that she cast her eyes across the globe, even West Asia
where signs of victory and defeat are already under way.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">China, with Russia’s robust backing is
altering all the key dynamics in the region. Take the Saudi-Iran rapprochement.
I remember thinkers like Henry Kissinger giving the Palestinian issue
relatively low saliency because the Arab world was riven by the Shia-Sunni
divide.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The West never juxtaposed Shah’s Iran as
Shia versus a Sunni Arab world. They were both allies. The “Godless” Chinese understood
the divide as a political ploy which could only be resolved politically.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Yaroslav Trofimov’s brilliant book ‘The
Siege of Mecca’ details Juhayman al Otaybi and his followers’ siege of Islam’s holiest
mosque in 1979 exactly as the revolution was toppling the Shah in Tehran. The book
established what the Chinese also knew: the existential threat to the Saudis
was from the Otaybi variant of the Muslim Brotherhood which was at the root of
what subsequently bloomed as Al Qaeda. It was easy sailing during the “Sole Superpower”
moment. Just as the Saudis sensed Washington’s grip on the world order slacken,
it clasped with alacrity the new future with Iran.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Just as one assassination in Sarajevo
led to a chain of events which became the First World War, an unexpected
breakthrough for peace between apparently implacable foes leads to a chain
reaction.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A lasting peace is very much on the
cards between Yemen and Saudi Arabia after an elaborate exchange of prisoners. The
consolidation of this peace is because of the Saudi-Iran deal which is owed to
Chinese diplomacy. The Houthis of Yemen will now have the time to attend to
other details of the regional mosaic. Hashd al Shaabi and Kata’ib Hezbollah in
Iraq, the original Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon and, ofcourse Hamas in Gaza
are now relatively free of their Saudi and other GCC anxieties and can focus on
Israel and, ofcourse, US bases in the area.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Some days ago Turkish, Syrian and
Iranian officials were in Moscow. While a Syria-Turkish rapprochement suits
Erdogan because of his elections due on May 14, Assad’s advisers do not wish to
foreclose the option for an opening with the multiparty alliance in the opposition.
As part of the frenetic activity the Syrian Foreign Minister was in Riyadh on
the same day when the Iranian technical teams was negotiating details on
exchange of Ambassadors.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">So far so good, but Riyadh’s real
nervousness is with the Akhwan or the Brothers who are simmering under Abdel Fattah
El-Sisi’s army repression in Egypt.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The US was divided on the election of
Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood in June, 2012. The White House and the
State Department favoured a gamble on democratic openness but the Pentagon,
where Israel is rather more influential, dug its heels in for Morsi’s ouster. The
Saudis pleased as punch, turned up with $8 billion to stabilize Sisi. That was
then. Radical changes have gripped the region since. In the midst of so much
change, will the Sisi dictatorship survive? The possible reemergence of the
Brothers will give them coherence with the Hamas in Gaza and much to Israel’s chagrin.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">These are stories the anchor at the
outset of this column may like to mull over as she looks for victors in
Ukraine.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">French President Emanuel Macron’s visit
to Beijing would by itself have been a breach in the Western façade, but the
breach must be more pronounced because the EU President Ursula von der Leyen, a
western hawk on Ukraine, also accompanied Macron’s peace mission. Macron’s persistent
advice to Europe has been to disengage from US policies whether in Ukraine or
in Taiwan.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">I hope this is a wide enough gap in the
much touted western unity which the anchor of our narrative must begin to realize
indicates success or a setback. She will justifiably complain I have not
balanced the story. True. After all, the US has opened an embassy in far off
Vanuatu to further encircle China.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-53734674168541336102023-04-07T19:49:00.001+05:302023-04-07T19:49:45.285+05:30Are Hashimpura-Maliana Comparable To Massacre Of Muslims In Srebrenica?<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Are
Hashimpura-Maliana Comparable To Massacre Of Muslims In Srebrenica?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">One way to cope with the agony of
Hashimpur-Maliana is to look around the debris we stand on. There is that heartwarming
figure of the tall (in every sense of the term) IPS officer, Vibhuti Narain
Rai, Superintendent of Police in Ghaziabad all those 35 years ago.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">On hearing that the Provincial Armed Constabulary
(PAC) had picked up 50 young men, in a truck, carried them to the Gang canal,
shot them and thrown the bodies in the canal for easy disposal, Rai rushed to
the scene and shouted. “Is anyone there?” groans of one Babuddin, the
accidental survivor, gave Rai an opening for investigation. After doggedly searching
into all the circumstances, Rai spotted a shaft of light. Justice Murlidhar found
16 PAC men guilty, deserving life sentences.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">So, it is not that a few good men pitted
against state impunity do not make a difference. There is always enough
humanity around us which pitches its tents against the horrors like those of
Hashimpura and Maliana.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Social activist, Nandita Haksar, lawyers
Vrinda Grover, Rebecca John, Colin Gonsalves have played exceptional roles. There
are countless others. Umpteen journalists with Sankarshan Thakur and Qurban Ali
in the vanguard, who have followed the case doggedly and not without success.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Remembering Hashimpura and Maliana in
today’s atmosphere of anti Muslim impunity by the BJP, can cause an almost deliberate
amnesia if you happen to be in the ranks of secularists. “Please don’t pile up
blame against the Congress” they implore. “It will only embolden the BJP to
greater impunity.” So, what do we do?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">How does one alter the calendar? The ghastly
events took place when Rajiv Gandhi was Prime Minister; the Congress had Bir
Bahadur Singh as Chief Minister of UP. Did the PAC go berserk on its own, or it
received a signal from someone higher up to teach Muslims a lesson. Who was
this higher up? We have the doubtful testimony of Subramanian Swamy in the
Rajya Sabha. He points the finger at Minister of State for Internal Security P.
Chidambaram.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">During Shab e barat fireworks, a fire
cracker hit a constable on duty who, as a kneejerk reaction, shot dead two
Muslims. This ignited riots of a fiercely communal nature in April.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Violence which continued for over a
month were, actually, clashes between two communities – not one sided pogroms which
became the vogue later.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A pre condition for riots is communalism
in the air. Rajiv Gandhi’s cohorts had filled the cauldron with every communal
ingredient and allowed it to boil over. One does not have to go back to the “Hindu”
in the Congress DNA. Well, for a flavour, take this one example. In his
memoirs, A Life of Our Times, Rajeshwar Dayal, ICS, records an incident when he
was the first Home Secretary of Uttar Pradesh. One day he and his police
commissioner, turned up at Chief Minister Govind Ballabh Pant’s residence with
a trunk full of evidence against RSS Chief Guru Golwalkar. Guruji, according to
the evidence in Dayal’s possession, was planning widespread disturbances in
Meerut, Muzaffarnagar and other parts of Western UP. Dayal thought Pant would
be pleased with the catch. Pant placed a huge dampener on Dayal’s initiative. He
said the cabinet will have to consider the sensitive issue. Meanwhile Guruji was
allowed to escape.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Although rioting in Meerut erupted on a
small scale in April, 1987, tensions in the area were high soon after Rajiv
Gandhi opened the locks of the Ram Temple, leaving the BJP far behind in the
Ram Mandir stakes. Kamal Nath as his sidekick, crowed with amplifiers on. “We
have taken the first initiative to build a Ram Mandir.” As soon as the Mandir
issue was brought into bold relief, Babari Masjid came into focus as a target. Competitive
Ram Bhakti took over.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">About the same time, the Shah Bano
judgement granting maintenance to a Muslim divorcee, caused the Muslim clergy
to see red. With consummate cowardice Rajiv Gandhi’s men rolled back the
judgement in Parliament. If the charge of appeasement of Muslim was ever valid,
this was that occasion.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Topsy-turvy decisions involving Mandir,
Masjid, Muslim Personal Law gave a handle to communal forces. Communal flames
were stoked.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The tit-for-tat clashes in Meerut took a
toll of 50 or so lives. It was then that someone in government took the
decision to call in the notoriously communal PAC and let it loose on the
Muslim-mohallas. And what a job the force did – lined up men by the Gang canal
and shot them dead. Headlights of a Mother Dairy van were mistaken by the PAC as
their pursuers. In panic they clambered onto these trucks and accelerated
towards Hindon River on UP-Delhi border. The petrified Muslims were off loaded –
and summarily shot and thrown in the river.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Atleast a handful of PAC murderers of
Hashimpura have received sentences. But the widows of Maliana, (those who have
not died a natural death) must wait for justice in a continuous daze. More than
three decades and 900 hearings after the massacre in which 72 Muslims were
killed, all 39 accused have been acquitted.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A daughter of ours, then a reporter in
her early 20s, covered Maliana. The memory still haunts her. I was in Zagreb
during the Bosnian war in 1994-95 when a posse of armed Serbs rounded up 8,000
young and able bodied Bosnian Muslims at the village of Srebrenica. Lined them
up, shot them and buried them in mass graves. Dutch Peace Keeping Forces nearby
took no notice.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The difference between Srebrenica and
Maliana is this: Srebrenica massacre, though on a larger scale, was heard by
the International Court of Justice within a decade of the ghastly events. The guilty
were punished. An elegant Srebrenica memorial in nearby Potocari sends shivers
down the spine. By contrast the families of the victims of Maliana have already
waited 36 years for justice. Appeals in higher courts will be as lengthy, and
for how long? Ultimately, as Groucho Marx said, we are all dead </span><b><span style="font-family: "Arial Black","sans-serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">––</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> in this case,
without justice.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-84972188015878167742023-03-31T19:55:00.003+05:302023-03-31T19:55:49.327+05:30To Avoid Leadership Issue, Opposition Could Aim To “Contain” BJP<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">To
Avoid Leadership Issue, Opposition Could Aim To “Contain” BJP</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Time was when even the Congress was
divided in its perception of an admittedly milder BJP during the days of, say,
P.V. Narasimha Rao. Rao’s ace adviser, Kerala Chief Minister K. Karunakaran had
an understanding with the RSS, BJP. Since the difference between the vote share
of the CPM led Left Front and the Congress led United Front was marginal,
Karunakaran often fall back on the RSS cadres helping him against the “Godless”
communists. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In distinct opposition to Karunakaran’s
practical approach, was Arjun Singh’s direct conflict with the BJP in Madhya
Pradesh.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Karunakaran’s was a tactical
understanding with the Hindu Right. Arjun Singh on the other hand stood by a firm
Nehruvian secularism. This encouraged Rajiv Gandhi to elevate him (but only
briefly) as the executive Vice President of the Congress.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Events which accelerated the consolidation
of Hindutva as the force it is today should be touched briefly lest perspective
is lost. In simple words, V.P. Singh’s implementation of the Mandal commission
report, opened up reservations in government jobs for Other Backward Castes. This
boost to the “avarna” or the lower caste was resented by the “savarna” or the upper
caste oligarchy of which L.K. Advani as the BJP leader took charge. To neutralize
Mandal the Ram Janmbhoomi or the Ram Mandir issue was raised to fever pitch.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">By embarking on the rath yatra in 1990,
the BJP was only catching-up. Rajiv Gandhi had already opened the Ram
Mandir/Babri Masjid locks in 1985 and announced Ram Rajya (Government based on
Ram’s laws). Rajiv did not even know that Ram Rajya was fanciful and presumably
incompatible with the Constitution. The Hindutva urge to have Sanatana Dharma
as a frame of reference for the Constitution is only an audacious real step
towards Ram Rajya.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Around this time, V.N. Gadgil, one of
the more sensible General Secretaries of the Congress took me into confidence
on an astonishing assessment by the Congress insiders that “a feeling was
growing among the Hindu masses that Muslims were being appeased.” How “appeased”
the Muslims were became clear when the Sachar commission report of 2005
established without the shadow of a doubt that since independence Muslims had
been reduced to the lowest rungs of the socio-economic ladder.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The Congress party’s internal assessment
of the 1984 election results which brought Rajiv Gandhi to power with
three-fourth majority set the party on a communal slope. Many naively thought
it was a massive sympathy wave because of Indira Gandhi’s assassination. But the
Congress divined the 1984 electoral windfall was actually Hindu consolidation
against “minority” communalism. Even though the immediate focus was Punjab,
what resonated in the pan Indian frame as a minority were Muslims. That was the
official though unstated othering of Muslims by the Congress. To make up with
Muslim, it bungled into Shah Bano, reversing a Supreme Court judgment, the
Muslim clergy was unhappy with.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The reality, ofcourse, was never so
straight forward. To oppose the BJP, the Congress found it expedient to wear
the badge of “secularism”. But, ironically, to keep the Hindu vote it decided
not to be seen in the company of Muslims. I have been witness to this policy. During
the Gujarat election of 2017, Rahul Gandhi exerted every muscle in the campaign.
He did not fare badly </span><span style="font-family: "Arial Black", "sans-serif"; font-size: 13pt;">––</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> 77 seats as against BJP’s 99. To come
this far he avoided Muslim areas during the campaign. To be seen in the
vicinity of Muslims would give the BJP a handle to “polarize” the vote. In fact
he went one better: during a crucial press conference at the Radisson Blue hotel,
senior Congress leader, Ahmad Patel, was asked to hide himself in a room in one
of the hotel’s lower floors. Rahul had Ashok Gehlot by his side. I could spot
Rajiv Shukla too, who makes a cheerful guest appearance everywhere rather like Hitchcock
in his own movies. Later, in the 2022 elections the Congress did much worse
because AAP walked away with 12% of the vote, leaving Congress with 27%. The BJP
surged with 52%. Congressmen have not stopped cursing AAP for its spanner in
the works. In Delhi the picture changes. Congress leaders grin from ear to ear
every time the BJP at the centre blocks reasonable AAP initiatives or throws
its senior leader into jail without any proven case.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">This being the equation between Congress
and AAP, what does one make of AAP leaping to its feet in anger when the Modi
establishment crossed red lines in suspending Rahul Gandhi from Parliament?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Mamata Banerjee’s anger in this instance
must be seen in a similar frame. Congress and the CPM are in a three legged hobble
in the state. The duet want their Bengal jagir back. Last month there was some
joy for them when they wrested the Sagardigha assembly seat from the TMC. Not only
did the Congress candidate Bayron Biswas win, he was feted by the BJP locally. With
such enemies who needs friends?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The BJP has set the bar of communalism
so high, armed with Hindutva that all political parties (the Congress is only
one of them) must keep a steady gaze on the Hindu vote and cajole it, lest the
party become an electoral invalide. By way of tactics, all parties must wear
spectacles with varying shades of communalism. Will the parties dilute their
communal content as and when the BJP power wilts?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">There is no sign of that happening. A strategy
the opposition may consider is to curb the desire to defeat the BJP because
that raises an insoluble issue: that of agreeing on an opposition leader. Supposing
they lower their sights and think of “containing” the force on a roll by
weaving coalitions in the regions, or in any turf of their strength. They could
jointly transform the runaway-force into a manageable one. The halo Rahul has been
gifted with can give him a head start in the West to East Bharat Jodo Yatra to
be launched on October 2 </span><span style="font-family: "Arial Black", "sans-serif"; font-size: 13pt;">––</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> all geared towards containing the BJP. The
results may be surprising.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-74419647210275037512023-03-24T16:51:00.001+05:302023-03-24T16:51:45.935+05:30Zelensky Opens Up Church Front: Expels Orthodox Bishops, Priests<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Zelensky
Opens Up Church Front: Expels Orthodox Bishops, Priests<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"> Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">By expelling the Orthodox Church from
their traditional holy enclave, Ukraine President Zelensky maybe igniting a
fire which will spread to the Balkans. It is a risky gamble considering that he
is Jewish. After me the deluge. Is that his call? But first the facts.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The 980 year old exquisite Pechersk Lavra
complex of monasteries in Kyiv, capital of Ukraine, will soon be emptied of its
distinctly robed Bishops and Priests. Even though the compound has provided the
backdrop for many a piece-to-camera by western TV anchors, the exodus of the Priests
will not make for a lead story.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It was an intriguing announcement made
by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky: “one more step towards strengthening our
spiritual independence was taken this week.” The step was to expel the Priests.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">What is the implication when 35 million or
80 percent of the population is Orthodox? Only 10 percent or 1.5 million are
affiliated to the Catholic Church. Is a clash between them being manufactured?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">On the other side of the Ukraine
conflict, 80% of the Russian population too is Orthodox. Does it mean that
Ukrainian and Russian populations are holding onto their nationalisms but the “collaborating”
clergy provide a bridge of unwanted moderation.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Zelensky and some of his supporters have
accused the ancient Ukrainian Orthodox Church of taking instruction from the
Russian Orthodox Church thereby undermining Ukrainian unity and slyly siding
with Moscow.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A delegation of Orthodox Bishops and Priest
were turned away by Zelensky without an audience. The Church has approached the
Pope to intervene.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Does the genesis of the problem lies in
one composite Orthodox Church heritage having been partitioned after the collapse
of the Soviet Union? The Orange revolution of 2004, the Euro Maidan disturbances
of 2014 simulated bursts of patriotism and induced a specific Ukrainian nationalism.
The idea of a Church independent of Russia germinated. Zelensky and groups
clustered around the far-right Azov battalion saw promise in a purely Ukrainian
Church independent of Moscow. In recent months, congregations grew, riding on
the back of nationalism stoked by the Russian invasion.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">At this juncture in the war when Ukraine
is in the process of being reduced to rubble, ecclesiastic matters cannot be
uppermost in Zelensky’s mind.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Contrary to keep-the-chin-up coverage in
the Western media, Zelensky is nowhere near winning this war. Indeed he is very
much on the back foot. Western arms and treasure are no longer a torrent. Europe,
particularly Germany, is in all manner of economic and political difficulties. A
symbol of growing German distress is the bankruptcy declared by the prestigious
Eisenwerk Erla Steel works founded in 1380. It is like losing a crown jewel.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Disbanding the Orthodox clergy could destabilize
the Balkans, barely settling down after the breakup of former Yugoslavia. It has
the potential of opening many fault lines. The Southern Slavs of Serbia, Montenegro,
Macedonia have a strong ethnic and religious affinity with 80% Russian population.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The complexities of the Balkans are mind
boggling, as I learnt during the Bosnian war. Since the region, including
Bosnia, were once part of the Ottoman Empire, the four year long siege of Sarajevo
resonated in the Islamic core of Turkey. It was this sentiment which weakened Kemal
Ataturk’s once iron clad secularisms. Sarajevo derives from the Turkish word “Sarai”
or resting place. The siege plus the brutalities visited upon Bosnian Muslims
was one of the reasons which brought Necmettin Erbakan’s Islamist Refah party to
power in Ankara. This fell foul of the Kemalist secular constitution. It was
then that Erbakan’s protégé, Tayyip Erdogan and Abdullah Gul disguised their
Islamism behind their Justice and Development (AKP) Party.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Should the region flare up again, an “unfinished”
business discussed in the capitals of Serbia and Croatia namely Belgrade and
Zagreb, is to “rationalize” Bosnia, sandwiched between them.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">UK’s former Liberal Party leader Paddy
Ashdown, who served as High Representative for Bosnia, once described his
conversation with Croatia’s first President Franjo Tudjman. What is the future of
Bosnia? </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Ashdown asked. Tudjman spread
out the napkin on the dining table, and ran a knife through the middle of the
napkins. Clearly, the incomplete agenda in both, Croatia and Serbia was to
expand into Bosnia. Any turbulence in Bosnia would affect the May elections in Turkey
besides destabilizing the entire region riven with the following faultlines –
Christian-Muslim, Orthodox-Catholic, Allies-Axis.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">When Yugoslavia broke up, Europe,
determined to avoid another war after the formation of EU, decided on a joint European
recognition of Yugoslavia’s breakaway parts. But German Foreign Minister,
Hans-Dietrich Genscher, with studied impatience, recognized Croatia which had
sided with the axis during World War 2. This immediately brought the British
behind Serbia which had been with the allies. The melee lasted four years
filled with carnage.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The State of Kosovo with a population of
3,00,000 Muslim Bosnians is delicately poised. The fact that Armed forces from
individual European nations under the overall charge of NATO protect different
sectors of Kosovo, make its security arrangements unique.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">My press card had to be cleared by
armoured Italian troops guarding the great Serbian Monastery of Decani, richly decorated
with Orthodox frescos and paintings. Curious monks peep from their carrels. Just
before dark, a muscular, athletic Priest runs around the central structure,
carrying on his shoulder a large wooden rattles called the tallanton. The sound
is supposed to alert the monks against the “Turk”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The ritual has been on since the 14</span><sup style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif";">th</sup><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">
century when the Serbs lost to the Turks at the battle of Kosovo. This loss is ironically
celebrated by the Serbs. With a smaller army the Serbs gave fierce battle but lost.
They gave the Turks such a ferocious fight that the Turks could not advance
further into Europe. So proud are the Serbs of this feat that the battle of
Kosovo is the most joyous day in the Serb calendar.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">It pains the Serbs that the monument to
the battle, indeed their most precious monasteries are in Kosovo. Revenge is
written into the script.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Zelensky’s ouster of the Orthodox Church
is provocative even beyond Ukraine.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-9567017834937923342023-03-17T18:53:00.002+05:302023-03-17T18:53:32.583+05:30Turkey, Iran, Syria Postpone Moscow Meet As Xi Jinping Arrives<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Turkey, Iran, Syria Postpone Moscow Meet As Xi
Jinping Arrives</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">To gauge the
importance of the Saudi-Iran rapprochement, mediated by China, it would be
useful to see the evolution of this relationship since the Islamic revolution
of 1979.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">In an era
aching for peace, such a radical development would undoubtedly be infectious.
Just as the world sat up in wonder at the development, signals became
discernable of quiet low key efforts at repairing other parts of the frayed
tapestry of West Asia. Deputy Foreign Ministers of Iran, Turkey and Syria were headed
for Moscow.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Tayyip Erdogan
would be ready for bargains all around if these boost his chances in the May
elections. Would it not be a coup for him if he goes into the contest after a
summit with the Syrian President Bashar al Assad? The meeting of the three
officials has been postponed briefly because Moscow is readying itself to
receive Xi Jinping on Monday.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">True, the
revolution which brought the Ayatullahs to power in 1979 did introduce a sharp
bipolarity in the Islamic world, but what worried Saudis much more was a development
in their own citadel. At about the same time that the revolution was taking
place in Iran, a group of Muslim militants who called themselves the ‘Akhwan’,
a sort of double distilled variant of Akhwan ul Muslimeen (the Muslim
Brotherhood) occupied Islam’s holiest mosque in Mecca, demanding that the House
of Saud relinquish control of the holy shrines. The argument was that
monarchical control was anti Islamic.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">This was not
dissimilar to the Ayatullah’s demand. It had consequences too: the House of
Saud began to describe themselves as “keepers of the holy shrines”. In good
time the new title fell into disuse. And now that friendship, or atleast its
promise, has broken out between the countries, such awkward issues are unlikely
to be raised. With such moderation breaking out, the more theological debates
will now intensify in Najaf and Qom on the one hand and among the Wahabi clergy
on the other.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Iran was a
Shia country even under the Shah. The Ayatullahs avoided the sectarian
inflection and called it the “Islamic resolution”. The sectarian divide was
amplified for strategic reasons by the Washington, Jerusalem, Riyadh combine.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Since the establishment
of the Jewish state, the Palestinian issue has had extraordinary saliency in
the Arab world. For the Iranian revolution, it was a stated article of faith:
no normalization with Israel unless all Palestinian rights were restored.
Despite what happened to Saddam Hussain, Muammar Qaddafi, Bashar al Assad (his
county destroyed even as he survives), the Iranians have stood firm, thereby
earning the wrath of Israel and all its supporters.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">This stand on
Palestine, standing upto the Israeli-US combine obviously resonated in the Arab
basement. This unnerved Arab potentates in dalliance with the Americans and
Israelis. Playing up the “Shia axis of evil”, therefore served all their
purposes. Even thinkers like Henry Kissinger began to amplify this propaganda.
“The region is no longer focused on the Palestinian question, they are worried
about the Shia-Sunni divide.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">When the late
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia returned from convalescence in a German hospital
in the summer of 2011, he was dismayed that the Arab Spring had taken a toll of
two of his friends – Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of
Tunisia.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">He swore that
no more monarchies, sheikhdoms and authoritarian regimes would be allowed to
fall. Americans, he said, should “cut off the head of the snake”. The snake, in
King Abdullah’s parlance was Iran. To reach the “snake”, the Shia arc had to be
weakened.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">That is when
the rebellion against Assad was manufactured and stoked. I myself saw US
ambassador Stephen Ford and his French counterpart huddle with rebels in Homs,
Hama and Dera. A former US ambassador, Ed Peck who witnessed the brazen US interference
in </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Syria,
wrote this letter to a friend, a former Indian Ambassador to Damascus:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">“I have
been dismayed by the accolades and support given to Ambassador Ford, our man in
Syria, for stepping well out of the traditional and appropriate role of a
diplomat and actively encouraging the revolt/insurrection/sectarian
strife/outside meddling, call it what you will. It is easy to imagine the US
reaction if an ambassador from anywhere were to engage in even distantly
related activities here. I fear my country remains somewhat more than merely
insensitive, and is sliding into plain rampant and offensive arrogance.”</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">After ten
years of trying to oust Assad with the help of Western and regional powers,
Americans find to their chagrin that the Syrian President is still around. If
Assad cannot be defeated by a proxy war sustained for a decade, what hope is
there of prevailing on Putin by proxy methods?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">By 2015,
President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry were embarked on pivot to the
Pacific. By signing the nuclear deal with Iran, they were creating a power
balance in West Asia. Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey would “balance
power” in the area, enabling the US to attend to the bigger business in the
Pacific – the rise of China.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Donald Trump
tore up the agreement. His son-in-law, Jared Kushner helped place the regional
crown on the head of the Iran’s implacable enemy – Israel.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Inconsistency
in US policy was causing weariness. The messy American withdrawal from
Afghanistan, caused the world to gasp. Punters began to change their bets. Provoke
Vladimir Putin into Ukraine, trap him into a long war and clobber him with sanctions
until Putin is on his knees – this was the stated intention. Nothing of the
sort happened. In fact, at this stage, French President Emmanuel Macron, appears
to have called it right. “After 300 years, Western hegemony is coming to an
end.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">By this token,
the US, as yesterday’s hegemon, has woefully diminished persuasiveness.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">When Trump
asked Jimmy Carter: “What should we do because China is going ahead of us?”
Carter’s response was pithy: “except a brief conflict with Vietnam in 1978,
China has not been at war.” Carter’s punch line was telling: “We have never
ceased being at war.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1740403554525230970.post-70090629642584823582023-03-10T17:45:00.000+05:302023-03-10T17:45:08.271+05:30US General Mark Milley: “Ukraine Should Move To Bargaining Table.”<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">US
General Mark Milley: “Ukraine Should Move To Bargaining Table.”</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Saeed Naqvi<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">I know a horrid, horrid man</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">As quiet as a mouse <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">Who does the mischief that is done<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">In everybody’s house!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">There’s no one ever sees his face <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">And yet we all agree<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">That every plate we break was cracked<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">By Mr. Nobody.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Mr. Nobody was in action again, this
time more audaciously than ever before. On September 26, 2022, Nord-Stream 2
the 1234 kms pipeline from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea was irreparably
damaged. Had the pipeline, meant to carry exceptional volumes of natural gas to
Germany and onwards to Europe, been activated, Europe would have all the power
it would ever need. Russia would have a reliable market next door.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Mr. Nobody, whom Pulitzer Prize winning
investigative journalist Seymour Hersh has identified as the US, found both
these outcomes revolting. Why?</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Because European
dependence on Russia would grow. Another word for mutual dependence, one would
have thought, is co-operation. But co-operation between Russia and Europe would
be at the expense of US hegemony. Knocking out Nord-Stream 2 was one of the
acts that would be required for the continuation of US hegemony which, to the
naked eye, was fraying in recent years. Particularly after the vulnerabilities
in the US capitalist model were conclusively exposed with the collapse of Lehman
Brothers in 2008.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Reverting to Nord-Stream 2. That this would
be America’s trajectory namely assertion of power. This had been delineated as
policy by one of the wisest US policy planners, George Kennan, author of the
policy of “containing” the Soviet Union. His Policy Planning Study written in
1948 for the State Department is lucid:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.0pt;">“We have about 50% of the world’s wealth
and only 6.3% of the population. We cannot, therefore, fail to be the object of
envy and resentment.” Kennan suggested a pattern of relationships which will
permit the US to maintain this position of disparity.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">“To do so we have to dispense with all
sentimentality and day dreaming……we should cease to talk about vague and unreal
objectives such as human rights, the raising of living standards and
democratization. The day is not far when we have to deal in straight power
concepts. The less we are then hampered by idealistic slogans, the better.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Between Kennan’s concept and American actions
falls the shadow of Western hypocrisy. In practice, it means a parrot like
repetition of human rights, democracy versus autocracy but forgetting the chant
while destroying Nord-Stream 2 for a perceived US good.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The headline to Seymour Hersh’s expose
says it all: “How American took out the Nord-Stream Pipeline.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Why the Hersh story should have caused
global surprise is itself astonishing. After all the President had himself said
“there will be no Nord-Stream 2.” Concluding a meeting with German Chancellor
Olaf Scholz in the White House, a beaming President Biden told reporters that
all would be fine, ending Putin’s “weaponization of energy” when there will be
no Nord-Stream 2.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">A reporter asked, how could America undo
Nord-Stream 2 owned by Russia and Germany? Biden’s answer was brazen: “we can
do it; I assure you.” How “we did it” is elaborated in Hersh’s report in great
detail.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Deputy Secretary of State Victoria
Nuland, the hawk driving the Ukraine project could not conceal her ecstasy testifying
before a Senate Foreign Relations Committee.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">“Like you, I am, and I think the administration
is, very gratified that Nord-Stream 2 is now, as you like to say, a hunk of
metal at the bottom of the sea.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Officials as supremely confident as
Nuland must wince when shrewd observers study all sides of the Ukraine conflict
and make gloomy predictions.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Dr. Scott Burchill, distinguished
scholar at Australia’s Deakin University gives reasons for pronouncing that the
war appears “almost over for Ukraine.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">First he quotes the Wall Street Journal:
“Public rhetoric about Ukraine’s heroic resistance masks deepening private
doubts among politicians in the UK, France and Germany on whether Ukraine will
be able to expel the Russians from Eastern Ukraine and Crimea which Russia has
controlled since 2014. There is a belief that the West can help sustain the war
effort upto a limited period, especially if the conflict settles into a
stalemate.” That is precisely where the conflict stands.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">The New York Times corroborates the
judgement. The chair of the joint chiefs, General Mark Milley is quite frank: “Ukraine
was unlikely to make substantially great battlefield gains and should move to
the bargaining table.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Dr. Burchill concludes that “that the
war is unlikely to end in decisive victory for either side,” however
enthusiastic Russophobes in the West are about a total Russian defeat. French President
Emmanuel Macron has told President Zelensky to settle in exchange for some
future unspecified security arrangement with NATO.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Former Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali
Bennett revealed something surprising. He claims to have made significant
progress towards a negotiated settlement. But his efforts were undermined by
Washington and London.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">According to Burchill “the West
preferred war to a diplomatic settlement until it became clear that Ukraine was
running out of soldiers and was unlikely to recover much, if any, of its lost territory.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Another cause for concern in Washington has
been the recent Chinese 12 point peace plan. Macron promised to take serious
note of it much to Biden’s chagrin.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Burchill is among a host of western
intellectuals – Jeffrey Sachs, John Mearseimer and scores of others – who have
been pointing to the West’s cynical outrage at Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s
sovereignty. There is amnesia about Western provocations which resulted in
Russia crossing the line.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Wars induce acute nationalism. Any light
hearted comment about those leading the war effort is considered anathema. That
is why it does not auger well when leaders are lampooned in the middle of a war.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">Olaf Scholz looks pathetic on the Stern
magazine’s cover. President Biden is striding out of the page like a colossus,
his height accentuated by Scholz looking like a pygmy, barely upto Biden’s hip,
holding the US President’s hand for support.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", "serif"; font-size: 13pt;">#</span></p>Saeed Naqvihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02518146844956627390noreply@blogger.com0