Clue To The Conflict: Gaza Sits on Trillions Worth of Gas

Clue To The Conflict: Gaza Sits on Trillions Worth of Gas

                                                                                         Saeed Naqvi

It quite beats me that President Donald Trump is willing to go thousands of miles across the oceans to empty Gaza of Palestinians, and take it over to develop the seafront as a Riviera. “Beautiful, beautiful” he said smacking his lips.

He will be poaching in land promised by the Bible exclusively for Jews. Well, Miriam Adelson, Billionaire-owner of Las Vegas Sands, a Jewish philanthropist who donated $100 million to Trump’s campaign can be enlisted as a partner for the Riviera project. The Biblical Red line will then not be crossed.

I was puzzling over the theme when a study by UNCTAD swam into my ken: “Unrealized Potential of Palestinian Oil and Gas Reserves.”

“Geologists and resource economists have confirmed that Mediterranean off the Gaza strip has 122 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.”

The study concludes: “What could be a source of wealth and opportunities can also prove disastrous if these common resources are exploited individually and exclusively without due regard to international law and norms.”

On June 2024 Israel gave preliminary approval for the development of a gas field off the Gaza strip. Benjamin Netanyahu told Reuters that the “Gaza Marine Project” would require security co-ordination with the Palestinian authority and Egypt. Was Netanyahu’s approval of a project which sidelines the Palestinians from their natural wealth a provocation which caused Hamas to fast forward the October 7 attack which must have been in the works for years?

The intriguing fact is that this gas and oil angle to the Gaza story is nowhere in focus even though the Israel-Hamas war, the relentless Israeli bombing of Gaza have received unprecedented media attention.

According to Reuters its reporter drew a blank when he asked the Palestinian Authority for a comment: “we can’t take positions based on a statement made to the media.”

Hamas official Ismail Rudwa was blunt: “We reaffirm that our people in Gaza have rights to their natural resources.” And this barely three months before October 7.

If the mother of all gas finds is in the bargain, why would Israel make a gift of it to those who Netanyahu, Ben Gvir and Smotrich consider “animals” or “Barbarians”? The holy scriptures sanction the territory for Jewish people only. The two State solution would give the Palestinians exclusive access to the gas.

Trump’s outrageous plan for a Riviera of the Middle East in Gaza should be seen alongside his interesting 1987 book The Art of the Deal. “I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing to get what I am after.” Who knows, he may have thrown a boulder in the pond to see how far the ripples go. Netanyahu and his extreme right cabinet colleagues have been mollified.

“All hell will break loose” should Hamas not release all hostages by Saturday, he thundered. In his book Trump talks of hyperbole as a tactic. Faced with this threat Hamas has not exactly buckled. They have not announced the release of all the hostages as “ordered” by Trump but only three as the agreement stipulates. Will this much keep Trump in humour or as per his tactics in the book he will “push and push”? Will he tactically blow his top if all hostages are not released as demanded by him?

One of the principles enunciated by him is that the “best deal is one in which both sides get something.” So, hope is not exactly out of order. The Saudi foreign ministry has stated that they will not participate in any post war program for Gaza that removes the Palestinian population.

Is this Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s final position? Or is he amenable to persuasion? There is a persistent chorus in the western media about the need for new energy to place the Abraham Accords on track against. The process has no meaning without Saudi Arabia being enlisted.

There are reasons why the Saudis cannot come on board easily. The gruesome pictures of genocide in Gaza have shaken the Arab, like people everywhere. Saudis are not exempt from the guilt that all Arabs passively watched the brutalities heaped on the Palestinians in Gaza for full 17 (seventeen) months. Arab regimes are now lining up against the Resistance movements who did help Gazans.

Also it is not easy for the Saudis to abandon the entente with Iran which has been diligently supervised by China. Saudi-Iran rapprochement is bad enough for the West and Zionism combine, what riles them more is the Chinese sponsorship of it.

In the backdrop of recent conflicts has been the echo chamber resonating with the chant of western decline – the loss of global dominance. Those uneasy with this trend are unsettled even more when the new Secretary of State Marco Rubio talks of a multipolar world order. This is a shift in US position.

Enthusiasts of the Arab Riviera in Gaza are trying to persuade MBS that his NEOM project, the futuristic city on the Red Sea will be splendidly coherent with the Riviera in Gaza. More US pressure on MBS will manifest itself when the time comes for him to make a bid for the Saudi throne after the ailing King Salman. A Crown Prince does not automatically become King as the Crown Prince’s own experience shows.

After King Abdullah’s death Prince Muqrim became Crown Prince. After three months he was replaced by Prince Nyef. On June 21, 2017, Nyef was deposed. Prince Mohammad bin Sultan’s ascension was followed by high drama. Guests at Riyadh’s luxurious Ritz Carlton hotel were hurriedly parceled off to other hotels. Nearly 300 of the Saudi elite, royalty, businessmen were detained in Ritz Carlton apparently on charges of corruption. Although speculation was that the move forestalled rebellion.

When the time of reckoning approaches, MBS will need all manner of support. The US, which is an integral part of the Saudi system, will have a trump card then.

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Palestinians Want Peace: Will Netanyahu Agree on Terms Acceptable To Hamas?

Palestinians Want Peace: Will Netanyahu Agree on Terms Acceptable To Hamas?

                                                                                    Saeed Naqvi

There is a growing school of thought that the West, led by the US, is fighting with its back to the wall in West Asia and Ukraine not to obtain victories in these theatres but to protect Western hegemony now in free fall.

All eyes are on Trump, how will he cope with this predicament? By erecting safety nets to cushion this fall or by making fortress America great again, lapped by the two oceans. The latter course implies less interest in foreign expeditions. This would hit Israel where it hurts.

For the past 40 years at least US foreign policy has been navigated by Israel or Israeli interests. Should Washington begin to look inwards, Israel will become the tail with no dog to wag.

It is a foregone conclusion that the West has lost in Ukraine, pending the final agreement to bring about peace. Remember Defence Secretary Lloyd Austen’s most self assured statement: “We want to weaken Russia.” There was modesty in Austen’s utterance compared to Senator Lindsay Graham’s bombast: “Lets assassinate Putin.”

A reversal like Ukraine in the heart of Europe was bad enough. Even more mortifying are electoral verdicts coming out of central Europe. That which Donald Rumsfeld proclaimed was “New Europe”, America’s very own carved out of the former Soviet Union, was now turning its back on the West.

Results are pro Russia, anti NATO and EU. It is another matter that every result causes the pro west losing candidate to throw a ginger fit. “Fraud” chants the crowd mobilized towards this end. As my leftist wag remarks: “democracy is legitimate only when people vote for the West’s agenda.”

However galling it might be for the Western media, all truth cannot be suppressed forever. It must have been with a heavy heart, the Editor of The Economist cleared the headline for its January 11, 2025 issue.

“Putinization of Central Europe.”

The editorial sheds copious tears at the “rise of Herbert Kicked, leader of Austria’s hard-right Freedom Party.” The writer of the edit mollifies himself that Austria is a country of only 9 (nine) million. But come the German elections in February, Europe’s largest country is expected to bring the far-right alternative for Germany to power. What then?

Another, of the same ilk as Victor Orban of Hungary, Robert Fico of Slovakia, is Andrez Babis who is likely to win in the Czech Republic. This is not all. Lost to the West are Georgia, Moldova, Romania and more coming. How long will Emanuel Macron of France, menaced by the fascist Marine Le Pen on the right and a powerful Communist-Socialist coalition on the left, keep playing one against the other without going under.

The rout in Europe would have demoralized all those busy shoring up US and Israeli interests in the many conflicts in West Asia in which the spider in the web is the Jewish state.

Given their current score in Europe, who knows the Russians may have struck a clever bargain by keeping away from the mess that Syria is guaranteed to descend into. Their bases in Latakia and Tartous are intact. A tired Bashar al Assad, politics thrust upon him by his elder brother’s death, can now attend to his wife’s cancer in Moscow.

Moreover, by creating the illusion that Assad has been handed to them as a trophy, the US-Israel combine might see a stimulated victory. This will enable them to come out of the blinding rage which impelled them into the world’s only genocide on live television. They are impaled on the world’s TV screen as blood thirsty men.

Ofcourse, October 7, killing of 1,200 people, the taking of 200 hostages was a huge provocation. Surely Yahya Sinwar and his compatriots did not calculate that October 7 would bring them victory, a Palestinian state. It was a trap. It was an invitation so the Israel-US could expose themselves as genocidal murderers, atleast one of them, Israel, certified as such by the International Court of Justice.

When lady Macbeth would not stop washing her hands after Duncan’s murder, Shakespeare had created a woman, hard as nails, and yet human enough to break down with guilt. But Benjamin Netanyahu, his far right colleagues, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich are of another ilk. During the monstrous war, how many times were Palestinian described as “amalak” who have to be blotted out of Jewish holy lands.

Now that peace is nigh, people will ask: who won? The western narrative is already in full spate: Hamas and Hezbollah have been thoroughly “degraded”. Iran has been weakened and the Palestinian resistance groups no longer have Syria as the conduit for arms from Iran. It is against this weakened lineup the Hamas has been compelled to sue for peace.

The other narrative sees this line of thinking as western propaganda. After all the reason that Netanyahu sustained his genocidal destruction of Gaza for so long was because his war aims had not been fulfilled. Even today neither has Hamas been destroyed nor have the hostages returned.

Also, Hezbollah is nowhere near being defeated. Israelis have not returned to their homes in northern Israel. The number of Israelis fleeing Israel because of the seemingly endless war. How many Israeli soldiers killed?

Peace is not a good time for the belligerent who has had to conceal the truth.

At the first inkling of a ceasefire, the Palestinians in Gaza came out dancing in jubilation on the debris and mangled steel which was once their home. They have nothing to hide. Their tragedy was seen by millions worldwide.

The mood was somber on the Israeli side. Should peace really descend, skeletons will come rattling out of shelves and cupboards. The people want peace, but do the leaders?

Neo cons encircling Trump (all Israel’s proxies) are fixated that Riyadh reach out to Jerusalem. Abraham Accords are their panacea for the region. First, Mohammad bin Salman is unlikely to ditch China and Iran in one dark move. Supposing he does, he will demand the Palestinian state as a pre condition. What then Netanyahu?

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The Syrian Gold Rush: Difficult Counting Trekkers

The Syrian Gold Rush: Difficult Counting Trekkers

                                                                                       Saeed Naqvi

The multitudes who trekked the tricky path for the Alaska Gold Rush mostly came a cropper. What fate awaits the punters who have made a beeline for the Syrian casino will become a wee bit clearer when President Trump ascends the Washington gaddi on January 20. The US, Israel, Tukey, HTS, a stream of European countries have their hats in the ring. Iran, Iraq, Lebanon are relatively passive.

Some unexpected names are in circulation again – Eric Prince, the founder of Blackwater, the world’s biggest contractor for mercenary armies. In 2017, during Trump’s first term, Prince had submitted a lengthy project report to “privatize” the military management of Afghanistan.

At the very outset, the project should have been turfed out of hand as moronic, but the lamentable fact is that the document did find traction upto the White House, through the agency of Trump’s close adviser Steve Bannon before he was shown the door. The Pentagon ultimately put the project through the shredders.

The Afghanistan project may not have taken off. This does not mean that Prince has been grounded. He now lives in the UAE, has been active in disturbed places like Libya. How could Syria not be a magnet for a businessman filled with the Spirit of adventure and faith in American capitalism?

We have the testimony of the Wall Street journal that the Trump team is already in touch with Prince on a matter concerning Ukraine. Prince is being nudged to buy Motor Sich, a Ukrainian aircraft engine manufacturer to prevent a group of Chinese companies from acquiring all the sensitive goodies that go with Motor Sich.

American adventurers being asked to buy up Ukrainian assets? Is the loot on? The incoming President has already gone public: he wants to own the Panama Canal, Greenland and Canada. Why not add Syria to the list?

Who sired Hayat Tehrir al Sham?

Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and Eric Prince may have known Abu Mohammad al Julani who mutated into Ahmed al Sharaa and is now the leader of Hayat Tehrir al Sham. HTS itself an amalgamation of various Sunni, Takfiri groups once Jabhat al Nusra which was in guerrilla combat with the official Syrian Army eversince the civil war broke out in 2011 just when the Arab Spring gathered pace in the Arab world.

The late King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, coming out of convalescence from a German clinic, was stunned to find his friends Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia ousted by their people. To stave off popular resentment against his regime, he showered $136 billion on his people in cash payments and welfare schemes.

He then went about lobbying for a coalition for dismantling the Shia arc – Iran, Syria, Hezbollah (Southern Lebanon) and Hamas in Gaza, all under US auspices. Israel, the spider in all West Asian webs, is by western custom, never mentioned when plots are revealed.

There was a difficulty in the Shia arc from the beginning. It was a misnomer. Yes, Iran is Shia, but Syria is predominantly Sunni with a variant of Shias, the Alawis, a minority elite group who control military power. Islam in Syria and Iraq was tempered by Baath socialism founded in 1947 by Michel Aflaq (a Christian), Salah al-Din al-Bitar (Sunni) and Zaki al Arsuzi (Alawi/Shia). It was at core Arab nationalism, tied to socialism and anti Imperialism.

In 1952, Gamal Abdel Nasser’s Egypt was similarly structured. This concert of Arab nationalism and socialism with an anti imperialist slant was always going to be hugely inconvenient to a theocratic, Zionist state plus America.

The Israel national security state required a solid enemy, not socialism and nationalism but something more like rampaging Islamism, potential of terrorism built into it. 9/11 should be made out to be a credible possibility, the stuff that makes propaganda copy writers salivate.

Nasser with his secularism made way for Anwar Sadat, with his Muslim Brotherhood background. That became the perfect counterpoint – one theocracy in conversation with another. Sadat’s visit to Jerusalem was the seed from which sprouted the idea of Abrahamic accords.

From Sadat’s Islam, reared in the ranks of the Akhwan, to Ahmed al Sharaa who mutated from Abu Mohammad Ali Julani and who was a true blue terrorist until the other day, Israel is now surrounded by every possible variety of Islam.

The world opens up for Mercenaries.

Yes, to revert to mercenary supremo, Eric Prince who may well have monitored the career of a star mercenary like Sharaa. When Ashton Carter was the Secretary of Defence, he had assigned Lloyd Austin to train and equip Syrian militants to strengthen the opposition to Bashar al Assad. Could Sharaa be one of the youth he trained? The $500 million project flopped so badly that Lloyd Austin was severely grilled by a Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs. “How many of those you trained are still fighting in Syria?” a Senator asked him. Austin was tongue tied. On persistence questioning, he opened up. “Four or five may still be fighting.”

During the chaotic American involvement in the Syrian civil war, troops trained by the US walked away with military hardware and joined Jabhat al Nusra, the brutal terrorist group. The clip of the Senate hearing was on e-span as was Defence Secretary Carter’s Press Conference.

Another chapter with Afghanistan?

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri broke his duck with Afghanistan at the right moment by meeting Amir Khan Muttaqi Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister in the neutral turf of Dubai. Indians did not quite clamber onto the same helicopter which ferried ousted President Ashraf Ghani to Dubai but the Indian embassy staff fled in double quick time. Without the US and Ghani crutches, Indians felt unsafe among Afghans.

When President Obama announced phasing out of troops, the argument against the move offered by General Stanley McCrystal says something of our standing among Afghans. “India’s socio economic development creates problems. It detracts Pakistan from helping our war on terror.” That was a decade ago. But New Delhi was not convinced even then.

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Manmohan Singh: Decency in Public Life

Manmohan Singh: Decency in Public Life

                                                                       Saeed Naqvi

The spontaneous outpouring on Dr. Manmohan Singh’s death reflects on the widespread yearning for decency we have lost lot in public life.

I remember with affection the occasion when he turned up at the Habitat Centre for the screening of a collection of short films on composite culture – e.g. Abdul Rahim Khanekhana’s Sanskrit verse on Lord Rama, Hasrat Mohani’s adoration for Krishna committed to verse in Urdu, Awadhi and Braj Bhasa; Munshi Chunnilal Dilgir’s pre Anis Marsias on the tragedy of Karbala and so on.

He waited for the audience to thin, then waved to me. “What a beautiful country we are spoiling.” He surprised me by repeating a couplet with which every episode in the series opened:

“Uske farogh e husn se jhumke hai sub mein noor

Sham e haram ho ya ki diya Somnath ka”

(His light permeates all;

The lamp in Kaaba; the diya at Somnath.)

“That’s Mir Taqi Mir” I said.

“I read poets other than Iqbal also” he laughed.

Second Term: Third power centre

Manmohan Singh second term, beginning 2009 was something of a surprise to him. Before the result, the Prime Minister had begun to advise his confidantes to look for other pastures. But the increase in the number of seats from 145 in 2004 to 206 in 2009 was attributed to a certain “youth surge.” The expression boosted Rahul Gandhi’s standing. This created problems for the party managers. The bipolarity at the top, the Congress President and the PMO, was already preoccupying pundits. Was Rahul, riding a supposed Youth surge, likely to be the third power centre?

Biting his finger nails, Ahmad Patel would talk of Rahul like he had seen an apparition. A suggestion gained currency that Rahul should be absorbed in the Union Cabinet. This would be just the sort of apprenticeship which would equip Rahul for the bigger stage being planned for him. Would that not have given him the slot he needed?

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 Indira Gandhi: Absorb dissenters in cabinet

Congress President during the emergency Deb Kant Barua once invited Rishi Kumar Mishra, Editor of Patriot for a hush-hush conversation on the lawn of his house where there was no fear of the exchange being bugged. Furtively a crumpled piece of paper, names of three Congress leaders scribbled on it, was handed to Mishra. Indira Gandhi needed Mishra to find out with some urgency their ideological antecedents, specifically “how close were they to the Americans.” Remember, this was not long after Congress President Shankar Dayal Sharma’s obsession with the ubiquitous “foreign hand”.

Mishra’s self esteem boosted by such abundant faith in his resourcefulness by the most powerful leader in the land, spurred Mishra to swift action! As he dug deep into his Top Secret assignment and found himself nearing the end of the tunnel, he received a high voltage shock one morning. The three names in the crumpled piece of paper adorned page one headlines in the newspapers. The three had been absorbed in the Union cabinet.

A cheated Mishra turned up at Barua’s office seething with rage. Anticipating the storm that was about to break, threatening the glass top table, Barua held him by the hand shared with Mishra his most succinct interpretation of the apparent double cross.

“One way to monitor recalcitrants in the party was to sterilize them in the cabinet system.”

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The excitement about Hungarian – American billionaire George Soros trying to do in India what the US is doing elsewhere – bring about regime change – takes my mind back to Donald Trump’s first term, 2016 to 2020. A huge influence in the White House in Trump’s earlier months, Steve Bannon, spent months, after giving up his White House job, across western democracies identifying Right Wing leaders like Marine Le Pen (France), Nigel Farage (UK), or Bolsario (Brazil), who would easily fit into the category of fascist for some future global coalition. At about the same time George Soros, the other capitalist ideologue was searching for the “liberal” like a needle in a laystack.

A Soros story I value is set in the Bosnian war 1992-96. During this calamitous war, was played out the siege of Sarajevo, Bosnia’s capital – a year longer than the siege of Leningrad and the longest siege of any capital city in history.

A story of brave journalism that deserves to be celebrated, annually if possible, concerns Sarajevo’s oldest newspaper, Oslobojema. How did the journalists of this newspaper manage to produce the daily regularly, without fail for the 1,440 days that the siege lasted and during which over 15,000 people were killed?

When we asked for the address of Oslobojema, people in Sarajevo pointed their finger in one direction. We scanned the horizon without being able to see any building.

There was no building to be found, only a huge heap of a debris. This must have been a multistoried structure. From beneath the debris light shimmered like lamps in a graveyard. It was a trek not a walk through broken brackets and slanted slabs of cement and concrete. I was able to recognize the editor, Kemal Kurspahic from our meeting at the Non Aligned Summit in Belgrade in 1989, a year before Yugoslavia broke up, leading to the Bosnian war of which the siege of Sarajevo was the crowning tragedy.

Kemal was no longer a lively, gregarious journalist, strong of elbow, knocking back an improbable rounds of schnapps. Now he had a mark on his forehead which devout Muslims develop as proof of multiple sajdas or the act of placing the forehead on the ground for supplication.

“That’s a huge change”, I said, pointing to his forehead.

“That is what happens when the world abandons you” he said.

Despite unbelievable odds in the midst of a raging war, it was almost miraculous that Oslobojema hit the stalls on a daily basis. Above all such an enterprise required a steady source of finance. Who financed this paper for Bosnia’s pre dominantly Muslim population? “You really want to know.” Kemal asked looking at me severely.

“George Soros.”

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Syria Shifts Focus From Genocide In Gaza, Looming Defeat In Ukraine

 Syria Shifts Focus From Genocide In Gaza, Looming Defeat In Ukraine

                                                                                       Saeed Naqvi

“Assad has fled his country. His protector Russia was not interested in protecting him any longer.” This is the President elect Donald Trump’s observation on the events in Syria. How will these words echo with President Volodymyr Zelensky fighting with his back to the wall in Ukraine. If Russia can drop Assad, will Trump keep an albatross around his neck?

Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu, literally fighting with his back to the wall with Hezbollah and Hamas, has exulted: “Assad’s fall reverses the most important part of the “Shia” axis with Iran.” The Israeli premier’s exultation would ring true if Iran had not been polite in its good bye to Assad. With usual subtlety, Iran has distinguished between Assad and Syria.

Quite in sync has been the statement by the leader of the rebels Abu Mohammad al Jolani, much the most important rebel leader. His refrain “Syria is for all Sunnis, Alawis, Christians, Druze” has found wide traction.

The earthshaking news that Assad’s fall has promoted is, quite ironically, the abrupt disappearance from the front page of two wars that have kept the world in their thrall. Why should a war inching towards a nuclear exchange been abruptly taken off the air waves? Because the West was losing?

Not only are the Syrian developments a welcome diversion for the West from wars that were not going well for the West. Assad’s fall also has the potential of being spun as a vindication of the Arab Spring. “Get out of the way, Assad” ordered Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She can now claim to have been vindicated, even though the circumstances in 2011 were totally different.

The growing consensus among non mainstream media experts is this: the western effort in Ukraine is not to accept an obvious defeat. Moreover, everything has to avert a debacle. The new treasure trove in cash and weaponry to Kyiv, would, in Trump’s parlance, be tantamount to throwing good money after bad. He is quiet for a simple reason: he would like to negotiate honorably with Putin. He would not like to throw in the towel but have Zelensky on his feet walk towards Putin to strike a bargain however degrading which the pliant media will sell with favourable headlines.

Ofcourse, there is a pall of mist on the rapidity with which Assad fell. The almost cheerful appearance of Assad and his wife granted asylum in Moscow tells its own tale. Russian bases in Syria have been promised full protection by the incoming regime in Damascus.

Stories of vandalism of Iranian embassy appear to be solo incidents without any organizational support.

There are so many fingers in the Syrian pie that it is difficult to spot the master choreographer. That Russia has vital interests in Syria as it does in Ukraine makes it the key author of the surprising turn.

Two other developments in the region have been marked by their masterly stealth: Riyadh-Tehran rapprochement and the coming together of all Palestinian groups ranging from Hamas to the Palestinian authority. Both these arrangements were painstakingly stitched together by China. Never in history have China and Russia been closer.

There have been plenty of agreements on issues stretching from Ukraine to East Mediterranean. Take the Astana process for Syria, for instance, between Russia, Iran and Turkey.

In the deal a crucial player is also Turkey. So far, standing four squares behind Hamas as it faces history’s first live televised genocide, have been the following: Iran, Hezbollah, Hazb al Shaabi (Iraq) and the Houthis of Yemen – all Shia variants. A prominent role being assigned to Turkey in Syrian affairs, brings a major Sunni country into focus. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s profile receives a boost. Is Azerbaijan part of the deal with Turkey where Iranian interests are considerable?

Russians along with Turkey and Iran appear to have played an amazing hand. Assad’s fall provides a face saver for Israel and US in West Asia and for the West in Ukraine.

The chaotic situation in Georgia where the President Salome Zourabichvili refuses to accept the Pro Russia verdict of the national elections held in October. This is not the only flashpoint President Trump faces when he enters the White House. The US’s key interest in the Pacific Basis has been blown to Smithereen, by inept politics in South Korea.

Former State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland’s handiwork in Ukraine is tearing apart. Likewise Donald Lu Under Secretary of State for South Asia has egg on his face for the explosive situation developing in Bangladesh. Pakistan and Afghanistan are on edge as are Romania, Moldova. Having called snap elections President Emanuel Macron finds himself without a government in France because he will not have a leftist Prime Minister. Fascism stares Germany in the face.

This incomplete list of the world’s chaotic spots is simply to place in balance the dwindling G7 and the expanding BRICS.

Is isolationism implicit in Trump’s clarion call – “Make America great again?

The US has faced decline but it bounced back under Ronald Reagan.

The fall of the Soviet Union, for reasons of its own, brought the US into focus as the Sole Superpower. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 signaled the flaws in the Neo Cons mismanagement of globalization.

Trump would do well to remember his conversation with Jimmy Carter. “The Chinese are going ahead of us”, Trump lamented. “What should we do?” Carter’s reply was succinct. “Except for one skirmish with Vietnam in 1979, China has not fought a war; we have never stopped being at war.”

The US’s 760 bases worldwide and wars without end were glibly explained: the Military Industrial Complex has to be kept busy. Defeats in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine should cause military analysts to pause.

The recent relentless bombardment of the Gaza strip by one of the great military powers, without achieving any of its war aims and heaping upon itself the odium of an Apartheid state committing genocide for over a year on live television defies description. How will Trump cope?

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Yahya Sinwar’s Death: Temporary Relief For Israelis, Motivation for Resistance

Yahya Sinwar’s Death: Temporary Relief For Israelis, Motivation for Resistance

                                                                                       Saeed Naqvi

Celebrations in Israel at the elimination of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas leader who masterminded October 7, 2023, is an expression of relief by some Israelis. Does Sinwar’s death mean victory for Israel? The 100 or so Israeli hostages are still in Hamas hands. By non Israeli accounts, Hamas’s recruitment drive is in full swing for “the long war”. Does Israel have the stamina for that war?

Bombing and destroying missions are easy because replenishments for such warfare are readily available with the “Military Industrial complex” in the US. The priceless asset for victory are foot soldiers and equipment for ground invasion. These are in short supply eversince the US became averse to setting boots on the ground.

The lesson Israel and their patrons, the Americans, must learn is this: aerial boom-boom-boom is gripping TV. It is good for destroying nations but it is useless in fighting nationalism – in Gaza or in Lebanon.

The death of Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, likewise, has further fueled resistance in Southern Lebanon. Has the IDF been able to break through the Hezbullah resistance on the ground? In fact by Lebanese accounts, Israel is having to ferry more dead and wounded Israeli soldiers than they had ever bargained for.

It just so happens that the terrain Israeli ground troops must break through to enter Lebanon is contiguous with the 120 km Blue Line which the United Nations Interim Force or UNIFIL monitors.

Let me share with you my experience of the Blue Line when in 2002 an Indian, Maj. Gen. Lalit Mohan Tiwari was the Force Commander of 10,000 strong UNIFIL. An additional advantage to me as an Indian journalist and my camera crew was the fact that a 900 strong Indian battalion – INDBATT, with its own chain of command operated under UNIFIL.

UNIFIL headquarters were in the town of Naqoura, in the 1,060 sq kms area the force commanded between the Blue Line a sort of border between Israel and Lebanon and Litani river. Tiwari’s residence was in Haifa, Israeli third largest city. He commuted daily between Naqoura and Haifa.

Even though the headquarters were in Southern Lebanon, the Force Commander’s accommodation in Haifa would appear to have given the Israelis a sense of control then. The situation today would be different. Until recently the Force Commander was Irish, a nation singularly critical of the genocide in Gaza.

The assumption that all the area under UNIFIL is only Shia is wrong. Yes, most of the area is Shia and possibly Hezbullah but there are several villages supervised by Christian Mayors. INDBATT was in a village under a Mayor who gave us a lecture one evening on how his village was known in history as the place where the world’s best Arrack was brewed. A Shia Muslim village would not boast of its Arrack. It was a Christian village. The over 40 countries represented in UNIFIL manned the 50 posts scattered around. Fierce fighting is obviously causing the IDF to look for “soft” points through which to make the penetration. Today the UNIFIL cannot just be wished away simply because Israel finds it inconvenient. The Sole Super Power moment is over.

Tiwari had a plausible manner with the Israeli as well as the Hezbullah side. In fact he even advanced my case to meet the Hezbullah supremo, Hassan Nasrallah. The interview did not take place but Tiwari did introduce me to a Hezbullah official who said “Let me try.”

What happened was a cloak and dagger sequence which began at a non descript apartment block in Dahieh, much in the news recently. A smart young man with a trimmed beard led me onto yet another large car. He apologized that our camera team was not being allowed to accompany me. I was finally led into a basement divided by a large curtain and invited to sit in one of two sofas arranged quite typically for an interview.

Finally a kindly looking man, grey beard, a brown gown and a white turban seated himself opposite me. It was not Nasrallah but his long time Deputy, Naeem Qasim.

History of the region had begun to change dramatically after the Shah of Iran, a western bastion, fell in 1979. The consolidation of the Ayatullahs in Tehran was only one of the reasons for Israeli Defence Minister Ariel Sharon to march into Lebanon in 1982 which, in turn, spurred Hezbullah’s growth.

This was the backdrop against which Syria and Iran were able to work together during the dramatic 17 days in 1985 when militants (no one knew who) forced a TWA flight from Athens to Rome to land in Beirut. To negotiate the release of 36 Western hostages, Speaker of Iran’s Majlis Hashemi Rafsanjani and Syria’s Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam pooled in their skills with the most influential Shia leader in Lebanon, Nabi Berri, Speaker of the Lebanese parliament. He played a key role in arranging for the release of the hostages.

Berri’s parliamentary politics was overtaken by Nasrallah’s military response to Israel’s aggression internally from within Lebanon and frequent attacks on Palestinian positions in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, the West Bank –– all gave impetus to the resistance groups. By 2020, before his assassination by the US outside Baghdad airport, Iranian Commander Qasim Suleimani had already created firm linkages between various resistance groups. Those linkages are in plan today.

Quite remarkably, Israeli occupation of Lebanon and US occupation of Iraq caused the world to wake up to a new reality: Shias were an overwhelming majority in Iraq and the largest block in Lebanon. Houthis of Yemen are a variant of the mainstream Shias just as are the Alawis, the most powerful group in Syria.

A great irony lies at the heart of these Shia groups pooling in their resources to end Israeli genocide in Gaza: the Hamas in Gaza is true blue Sunni Akhwan ul Muslimeen or the Muslim Brotherhood, a detail on which the western media buries its head in the sand.

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Rein In Rampaging Capitalism Or Liberal Democracy Has Had It

Rein In Rampaging Capitalism Or Liberal Democracy Has Had It

                                                                                          Saeed Naqvi

That Juan Guaido, 41, has in his CV described himself as the “ex President of Venezuela – 2019-2023” is not all fiction. Even when the world sleeps, the leader of the Free World is in relentless pursuit of replacing dictatorships with democracy worldwide. Replacing Nicolas Maduro in Caracas with Guaido was one such enterprise.

“The Munro doctrine is alive and well” boomed Rex Tillerson, President Trump’s Secretary of State. It was therefore legitimate for US agencies to find a friend to be installed on the throne in Caracas. Venezuela has the world’s largest reserves of hydro carbons.

Vice President Mike Pence was given charge to keep a steady gaze on Guaido as he commuted between Colombia, the US and Venezuela to somehow ascend the gaddi.

As soon as the failed Guaido initiative became part of global amnesia, the leader of the Free World was dutifully at it again. Headline are still fresh about yet another failed effort to dethrone Maduro.

Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp told Parliament that Venezuela opposition leader Edmundo Gonzales has sought refuge in the Dutch Embassy. Before his papers for exile in the Netherlands could be processed, he found cultural continuity where he is now likely to stay – Spain. It would be interesting to see what new salvo is fired for democracy. It must be galling for the US agencies that colour revolutions are no longer giving the desired results.

Western covert operation must have taken heart from developments where their very own Fulbright scholar, Mohammad Yunus has shown the door to Shaikh Hasina whose emotional ties to India and practical ones with China were becoming something of a puzzle.

This narrative would be woefully off the mark if the explosion of public anger at Sheikh Hasina’s dictatorship is underplayed. It possibly provided the objective conditions which outsiders have exploited. It must be added in parenthesis that scholars like Jeffrey Sachs have been quite emphatic. State Department’s Donald Lou has been as active in Bangladesh and Pakistan as Victoria Nuland was in Ukraine.

While “regime change” apparatus is still functional in the US, Europe in its post colonial phase is having no use for it. It has other ways to ward off the Left – occasionally tipping the scales even in favour of fascism.

Look at what was East Germany, fascism has quite impressively opened its accounts in two states. Political theatre in France has an engaging story-line: how to stop the Left?

This story actually begins at the European Union elections in June where Marine Le Pen’s Right extremist, National Rally, trounced Emmanuel Macron’s Right-of-Centre Ensemble by miles. In a state of funk Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called for national elections. The anxious French President hoped to recover lost ground. Exactly the opposite happened. Le Pen zoomed past him with 33% votes in the first round. Not very far behind was Left Alliance. Macron came third with 21%. Here was no absolute majority.

The fifth Republic had had it, should Le Pen win the second round. A fascist as President of France? The Left front and Macron withdrew over 200 candidates from triangular contests to prevent a division of anti Le Pen vote.

The trick worked but only to the extent that it stopped Le Pen. She came third, but Macron and his corporate supporters were in turmoil because the Left Front galloped way ahead. Macron’s neo-con agenda would clash head on with the Left Front’s socialism.

Instead of appointing a Left front Prime Minister as numbers in the National Assembly dictate, Macron placed the mantle on the Michel Barnier from the Republican stable.

Will the Socialist break ranks from the Left front? If not, the possible backroom deals could be sinister. Suppose, Barnier’s minority government is supported by Le Pen from the outside? She will then control the fifth republic.

People’s will as expressed by the progress of the Left front, will have been effectively neutralized by Macron-Barnier’s neo cons agenda.

Social welfare, price rise, health care, unemployment – issues that define the lives of people, will have been replaced by migration, identity politics, Islamophobia, military budgets, the staple that fascism feeds on.

What is being played out on an epic scale in France is more or less the pattern in most western democracies. Remember the excitement that was generated when Alexis Tsipras became the first communist Prime Minister of Greece, the cradle of western civilization.

No sooner had Communist reared its head in a European country than Germany, the biggest donor in EU, sat on Tsipras’s back. Greece’s debts would not be honoured.

In Spain the rise of 39 year old Pablo Iglesias as leader of leftist Podemos, at about the same time as Tsipras in Greece, caused frenzied response from the establishment: Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy whose unspeakable corruption had precipitated the election which brought up Podemos was manoevred into another term, corruption or no corruption. By attrition Podemos was killed.

It was clear as daylight that Bernie Sanders was derailed by the Democratic Party establishment largely for his socialist image. I wrote then: “If you make Sanders impossible, you make Trump inevitable.” Likewise, if Jeremy Corbyn is impossible, Boris Johnson become inevitable. He succeeded clowning around as Prime Minister briefly. Right wingers in the Labour party like Peter Mandelson had sworn to “undermine” Corbyn.

As the Bible says: “there is no new thing under the sun.”

This had been the pattern ever, since Franklin Delano Roosevelt pulled his country out of the Great Depression of the 30s and 40s by taxing the very rich to pay for the welfare schemes. The socialist, communist and the unions had pressured him. The most popular American President in history who died in his fourth term ended up spawning corporate paranoia which has not lost momentum to this day. Joseph McCarthy remains a reaction to anything resembling New Deal. His spirit lives. Atleast in those early days of unbridled capitalism, a journalist of CBS News like Ed Murrow could single handedly demolish McCarthy. Today the field is wide open for capitalist callousness.

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