Goodbye US, Israeli, Saudi Alliance: A New Order Beckons
Saeed Naqvi
Saudi refusal of the rotating Security Council seat has been seen for what it partly is: a tantrum. But it is also a clue to a coming political reality: West Asian politics may well be reverting to normality.
The frenetic pace at which
events moved in the Bush years after 9/11 when the United States could ride two
horses, Israel and Saudi Arabia at the same time, on the gallop, is only
possible on an extensive “straight”. This was the delusionary part of the
neo-cons thinking. They thought the US would be on the “straight” forever,
having defeated the Soviet Union. But now there is a bend in the race track.
As we know, other powers have
arisen. The threesome, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US, must perforce pause and
take stock. What have been the gains? Is the triangular alliance coming apart?
Marxists have a fine system of
analysis. As long as Israel and Saudi Arabia serve Imperialism’s basic
interests in the region, their influence in Washington cannot be discounted.
But if this “basic” interest, that of being economically and strategically
indispensible to Imperialism is not being served, special relationships or
powerful lobbies in the US will not be able to keep these together. Riyadh and
Tel Aviv must ponder. Are they useful or a drag on US’s “core interests”?
The trio was focused on one
vision of West Asia. But the opening to Iran now being followed up by the
British re opening their embassy in Teheran next week has rendered unfeasible
that vision. Israel and Saudi Arabia had set their heart on “getting” Iran. That
game stands suspended. Why should an enemy’s enemy now be a friend?
The alliance had gummed up a
fundamental regional contradiction. How can, the Saudis in their original
incarnation as leaders of the Arab world, be in an alliance with Israel which
has occupied Palestinian Arab lands and will not budge.
One implication of the
apparent Saudi estrangement with the US is that Riyadh will now pull out its
peace plan of 2002 and resume its role as an Arab player. This brings into
focus such of the Kingdom’s Foreign policy thinkers as Prince Turki Al Faisal, former
Intelligence Chief and Ambassador to the US. Note the tone of the article he
wrote in the New York Times over a year ago. “The special relationship between
the two countries would increasingly be seen as toxic by the vast majority of
Arabs and Muslims, who demand justice for the Palestinian people.” So, focus
shifts to Palestine.
The Saudis dissipated their
energies promoting Shia-Sunni strife on an unspeakable scale simply to keep an
external focus, away from internal threats. The US too was dragged into this
mess. But the Saudis could not keep their eye off tussles within. They began to
see Muslim Brotherhood ogres in all the GCC countries and when Mohammad Morsi
began to consolidate the Brotherhood in Egypt, they rushed and supported the
Army coup, embarrassing Obama whose photographs were posted in Egypt as a
supporter of Morsi. Indeed, photographs of the US ambassador Anne Patterson
also came up as a Brotherhood “stooge”. That she was replaced is a sign of
which side the US backed.
In any case Defence Secretary
Chuck Hagel’s head was constantly popping up as the Egyptian army’s supporter.
The Saudis came barging in with their billions and billions to keep the armed
forces buoyant. Such a mess.
Then Prince Bandar bin Sultan
flew into Moscow. His conversation with Vladimir Putin is a study in how
diplomacy should not be conducted. Give us Syria, said Bandar, and take the
world. It was like the Biblical yarn about the Devil tempting Jesus in the
garden of Gethsemane. “Get thee behind me, Satan”, said Christ, refusing the
blandishments. When Bandar offered all the guarantees for a “terror free” Sochi
Winter Olympic games next year, Putin said “we know you control terrorists”.
This amazing conversation was
supposed to be under wraps but one of two sides leaked it to the Russian press.
Bandar’s other startling
undertaking was that whatever he offered the Russians had American backing.
This was the trump card,
Bandar handed Putin at the global Casino’s high table.
US, Saudis and Israelis together
overpowering everything else in the region is no longer the name of the game.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iran, the Levant will have to seek their salvation
together slowly, step by step with other countries of the region. Saudis may
not have wanted to be on the UN high perch because in the new emerging regional
system, they have to manage changes secretly which has been their classical
style. The new style that Bandar tried to introduce may suit him but it cannot
be the style of a cumbersome monarchy, weakened by age, where competing
factions must be given voice, until the order changes. King Abdullah will be 90
in a few months.
The Saudi system, indeed, the
Umma was convulsed by the siege of Mecca in 1979 led by Juhayman bin Sief al
Uteybi, a few months after the Iranian revolution. The elders of the monarchy
focused on the external Shia threat to manage the internal upheaval. And now,
the external target is receding. Refocusing is required. Who knows, the US and the
Saudi may pore over a compromise formula that had been worked out in Bahrain,
much the most emotive issue in Najaf and Qom. Meanwhile, no one is throwing in
the towel, not yet. Israel and Saudi Arabia will beat their breast and stamp
their feet to test if Obama has really been able to shuffle out of the
establishment strait jacket, custom made for George W. Bush and with which the
President has been grappling like a trapped man in a Marcel Marceau skit.
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Great thoughts, some truth
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