Is Rahul Really A Modi Asset As Mamata Believes?
Saeed Naqvi
The sharpest observation after
the five state elections has come from Mamata Banerjee.
“Rahul Gandhi is a Narendera
Modi asset”.
Sonia Gandhi and Rahul had
mounted a bitter attack on Mamata during the campaign in West Bengal. Against
this background, would she ever shake hands with the Congress? asked NDTV’s
Barkha Dutt. Mamata came down sharply with the above one liner.
The implication of what Mamata
said is that Rahul, and the Congress by extension, are a requirement of Modi.
They, and they alone, must be the counterpoint for the musical score the BJP is
composing.
In fact this composition has
been underway well before the May 2014 general election which brought Modi to
power. The entire Indian establishment, CII, FICCI, the electronic media, press
– everybody was chatting up Rahul to stand in opposition to Modi. He was
cajoled, paraded on the stage. Anchors implored him to debate Modi on live TV.
As it is, Modi’s 2014 victory was because of the universal disgust with Sonia,
Rahul and Manmohan Singh which was harvested by the world’s most expensive
election campaign. BJP think tanks now divined that Modi will continue to look
good so long as Rahul is projected as the alternative. And Mamata has quickly noticed
it.
So, Rahul must remain in play
to benefit Modi. Instead of admitting that Rahul is something of a non starter,
his coterie keeps making excuses: his take off had been delayed because Rahul
wanted to raise the party from scratch. He is teeming with ideas, says Motilal
Vohra, Janardan Dwivedi, Ghulam Nabi Azad, Anand Sharma. Only, Ahmad Patel sees
authority resident elsewhere: “let’s ask madame”. No one is willing to concede
that Rahul simply doesn’t fizz.
After P.V. Narasimha Rao
brought the Congress tally down to 140 seats in 1996, Sitaram Kesri as Congress
President raised it by one to 141, but the next year Sonia plummeted: 114
seats. Electorally, the mother and son combination has done the party no good.
So many of the party’s wounds
are self inflicted. Take the tamasha in Assam. If Sonia Gandhi can dig her
heals in for her son, who can blame 81 year old Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi
dream dreams for his son, Gaurav Gogoi? Why can’t he be the next Chief
Minister. Himanta Biswa Sarma was to Gogoi what Amit Shah is to Modi. He was
miffed at Gogoi’s brazen nepotism, ofcourse. But Rahul has had a role in driving
Sarma away. Sarma describes a meeting with Rahul. “He is arrogant and likes to behave
like a master with his servants.” It is universally acknowledged, an angry Sarma
has brought down the Congress citadel in Assam.
True, the BJP now is in power
in two frontline states – Jammu and Kashmir and Assam. But circumstances impose
a certain moderation in both situations. It cannot permit communal excesses and
live comfortably with Mehbooba Mufti in Srinagar. Nor can it put on war paint
against Bangladeshis in Assam at the same time as it is having exceptionally
good relations with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in Dhaka.
An atmosphere of moderation
induces other steps. The BJP fields nine Muslim candidates of whom one has
survived the fray. What if he becomes a Minister? Badruddin Ajmal of the AIUDF
would be a worried man on that count?
And now the imminence of Congress
collapse is causing interesting political shifts elsewhere. In Kerala, Muslims
have veered away from the Congress and Muslim League. They have voted in large
numbers for the Left Front. This is welcome.
There are other lessons in
these elections. The Indian ruling class has long deluded itself that the
country had a durable two party system. In a multi ethnic, multi religious
country where every currency note has to indicate denominations in atleast seventeen
languages, to aim for such a system will, in the long run, prove illusory. A
durable system of coalitions will surely evolve.
The five state elections have,
after all, produced five results. A contest is on between two ideas of India –
a federal India and a unitary one. Establishments, of which the media is a
part, are generally more comfortable with two national party systems, in bad
odour though they be globally. They have since the 90s, bred crony capitalism
and corruption. Electoral changes sweeping the world are on that count.
That is why Mamata’s is an astute
observation. By describing Rahul as a Modi asset, she is debunking the illusory
two party system at the Centre. Yes, two party systems will be the order in the
states. Come 2019, leaders like her, from the regions, will shape the power structure
in New Delhi. The days of two party compact, above the regional satraps, may be
coming to an end. Parties with national pretensions must quickly find lasting
partners in the states, not one night stands like the Left and the Congress had
in West Bengal.
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