Afghanistan, Not India, Will Be Imran Khan’s Priority
Until 2019
Saeed Naqvi
Even before
elections in Pakistan had taken place the media which articulates the western
establishment point of view, like the Economist, had already declared it a
“flawed election”; it even screamed “foul play” which the “khaki umpire” (for
which read the Army) had rigged.
If you will
stand for a mixed metaphor, the “khaki umpire” is, these days, playing the
monkey between two cats – the US and China. With Donald Trump and his Deep
State apparently engaged in a savage fight to the finish, the balance of
advantage must be seen to be with China. But Chinese themselves are keeping their
fingers on the China-Pak economic corridor. Imran Khan has expressed reservations
on transparency issues. On the other hand, there have been reports that
thousands of Pakistan students, who in the past would have been westward bound,
have entered Chinese schools of learning. Who knows, this may be the thin end
of the wedge.
If the Chinese
can decolonize the Pakistani mind to this extent, it must be time for the West
to take note. But a sketch that sections of the Army and Imran Khan might be
innately anti west can be overdrawn. Yes, Pakistan has choices other than the US
which includes Russia, but this does not mean the army will bite the hand that
has fed it since its inception.
These are
complex times and a durable phenomena like the “West” manifests itself in many forms.
After all retired Pakistan armymen, like retirees elsewhere, do keep a steady
gaze on post retirement sinecures. A huge opportunity beckons Pakistan retired
army officers in Saudi Arabia with its insatiable appetite for a war without
end against the Arab world’s poorest country – Yemen.
The new Prime
Minister will be pragmatic. He will not seek to impose a moral code on his
armed forces. But he will draw some very firm red lines and these red lines
will stretch from Pakhtunkhwa right through Afghanistan, the arena of his
political baptism and purgatory. That is where he cannot be seen to be striking
deals. His political turf will turn to ash if he does.
He should not be
seen in the traditional Pathan-Punjabi balance. The brunt of the blowback from the
Afghan war was borne by the Pathan region, true, but it was a national catastrophe.
Let me explain. Washington twisted Pervez Musharraf’s arm to turn upon those Mujahideen
in Afghanistan whom Riyadh, Washington and Islamabad had reared to fight the
Soviets in Afghanistan. The blowback from the Afghan war singed Pakistan. The
Lal Masjid fiasco in Islamabad aggravated an uncontrollable situation. The
reverberations from that blowback have not ended yet. Remember, the public
outcry was against Musharraf fighting “America’s war” against terrorism. It
became all the more shrill when the two brothers controlling Lal Masjid, Ghazi
Rashid and Maulana Aziz, led the chorus.
Let me fast
forward to the latest American debacle in Syria and its possible impact on the Af-Pak
region. Ever since the Russians landed in Syria to fight terrorism, the US,
Israel, Saudi bluff has been called. They armed and financed Jabhat al Nusra,
Al Qaeda and worse but their town criers amplified these rogue elements as the
Free Syrian Army. When almost all the mercenary Islamists had been caught with
their trousers down, the existential question arose: what to do with trained
terrorists?
When animal
lovers in Britain forced an end to the traditional foxhunt, the impulse reached
India’s southern hill station of Ootacamund also. The same question arose: what
to do with hundreds of pedigree hounds? Good sense dawned and the canines were
kept in a deluxe kennel, then distributed among dog lovers. But what do the
trainers do with terrorists, trained and tested in action, who have not only
tasted blood but have begun to love it? Trained terrorists can only have one
use: as assets against any Muslim society the “trainer” wishes to destabilize –
Afghanistan, Xinxiang, the Caucasus and so on.
I can quote
atleast two recent US Presidents to prove my point. In an interview to Thomas
Friedman in August 2014, President Barack Obama made a startling admission.
Asked why he had not ordered air attacks against the Islamic State, when it
first reared its head, Obama said: “that would have taken the pressure off
Nouri al Maliki”, Iraq’s stubbornly anti American, Shia Prime Minister. In
other words, the IS advance from Mosul to Baghdad was facilitated to oust Nouri
al Maliki, an outcome the US was excitedly waiting for. Maliki had to be
punished for the affront of not signing the “Status of Forces agreement” with the
US. Eventually Maliki was shown the door.
After having
been briefed by the Intelligence Agencies, candidate Donald Trump told Jake
Tapper of the CNN: “Where do you think have billions of dollars worth of arms –
and cash – gone in the course of our involvement in Syria? To the extremists, ofcourse,
I believe so.” He has not budged from this position.
What should
worry Imran Khan is the next stage: the transfer of trained terrorists from
Syria to Northern Afghanistan. Iran’s Supreme leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei
told a Friday congregation in Tehran on January 30. “The US transfer of IS
terrorists to Afghanistan is aimed at creating a justification for its (US’s) continued
presence in the region.” More recently, Russia’s Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs,
Morgulov Igor Vladimirovich told a high powered assembly at the Raisina Dialogue
in New Delhi: “IS fighters were being flown to northern Afghanistan”. The Afghan
air space is under the control of the US and the government in Kabul. “so who is
responsible?” Vladimirovich asked.
Islamabad, Beijing,
Moscow are all persuaded that Taleban will have to be part of the solution in Afghanistan.
Americans have been marking time with the good Taleban, bad Taleban mantra because
they clearly do not have a policy.
The moment is laden
with irony for President Ashraf Ghani in Kabul. The emergence of a Pathan in Islamabad
should have provided him with comfort. Instead he is having kittens: the Pathan
on the other side has an agenda which is totally at cross purposes with Ghani’s.
Imran’s agenda would boost his popularity in the country where Ghani, alas, has
none. The moral is simple: no sidekick to a foreign power has ever been respected
at home.
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