Syrian Militants Secretly Flown To Afghanistan, China
Raises A Battalion
Saeed Naqvi
Among the
dozen or so guests US Ambassador Frank Wisner was escorting to Bhutan for a
holiday was Richard Holbrooke, former US ambassador to the UN. Wisner had
invited a few Indian friends to the long hall of Roosevelt House to meet the
group. The year was 1996. The ebb and flow of conversation was interrupted when
Holbrooke raised his hand like a Japanese tour leader. “Silent” he whispered
audibly. He walked to the far end of the hall to talk on the telephone.
He returned
with his mouth full of news. “US-Taleban romance is over” he announced with
authority. Until the previous day the US was operating on the assumption that
the Taleban was the most organized and muscular group in Afghanistan, who could
be relied upon to stabilize the country. TAPI or the Turkmenistan, Afghan, Pak,
India gas pipeline would then begin to look feasible to the US oil company,
UNOCAL – the principal reason for the Afghan conflict.
What the US
had not bargained for was the brutality with which the Taleban applied Shariah
law on Afghan women. A series of prime time features on Taleban cruelty against
women, telecast by the CNN’s Christiane Amanpour created a sensation in
Washington. Without any waste of time, the US decided to distance itself from
the Taleban. US officials supportive of the UNOCAL project, did not conceal their
disappointment. “US gender politics has scuttled a strategic initiative”.
Fast forward
to the great Tajik leader, Ahmad Shah Massoud (the lion of Panjshir valley)
addressing the European Union in Brussels, in early spring 2001. He alerted the
EU leaders, of the information his anti Taleban Northern Alliance had
collected: Al Qaeda, helped by the Taleban, were planning a major attack on the
US mainland. For this audacity Massoud was to pay with his life. On September
9, two days before the attack on the Twin towers in New York, Massoud was
assassinated at his hideout on the Tajik border. It is interesting that the two
Tunisian suicide bombers who had approached Massoud disguised as journalists
travelled on passports forged in Brussels, the city where Massoud exposed the
plot which turned out to be 9/11. At whose behest was Massoud killed?
Had the
financial crisis of 2008 not weakened the West, there may have been different
scripts for many regions, including Afghanistan. But given the ground
realities, President Barack Obama settled on July 2011 as the date on which US
troops would begin to withdraw. In August 2011 precisely a month after the
Afghan withdrawal date was announced, the Syrian theatre was opened up. Coordination
or chaos?
In a paper for
the Observer Research Foundation in September 2010 I had argued that Obama’s exit
plans were a pipedream. Do Americans have an endgame planned? Can a superpower,
in a theatre of strategic importance, have a linear exit plan when multiple
strategic options present themselves? US has been extremely watchful of a nuclear
Pak. Is it now willing to walk away leaving the world’s only “Islamic” bomb unmonitored?
Let’s not forget, Afghanistan has been the US watch tower on this count.
Moreover, a US
being bled by an endless war suits all powers in the region. Demanding American
departure but doing everything to keep it tied down in Afghanistan is an
elementary game everyone is playing. Would interests in Pakistan wish the
logistical supply line from the Karachi harbour to Afghanistan past Baluchistan
to dry up? It is a regular source of incalculable earnings.
Would not a
possible US departure cause Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Russia and
China to contemplate the Afghan real estate as a huge vacuum which each power
must rush to fill up before the next one does? Here is a recipe for the mother
of all civil wars.
Are the
Americans likely to walk away simply because they are exasperated? After having
spent a trillion dollars, losing thousands of lives, losing face – so soon
after their reversal in Syria – are they really contemplating withdrawal? Will
the bosses of UNOCAL suck their thumbs now? Will the priceless poppy fields of
Helmand, the oil in the North, the unexplored mineral wealth now become a
Russian asset?
Ofcourse not.
Absence of consistency has been one of the constants in US policy on
Afghanistan. To cloak this inconsistency, amplified in the time of Trump, we
have strange reports coming out of the White House. Before Steve Bannon, the
President’s Chief strategist was shown the door in August 2017 he had drawn the
President’s attention to an outlandish proposition put forward by Eric Prince,
the founder of Blackwater, the world’s biggest provider of private armies.
At a strategy
session in Camp David, Trump’s Best and Brightest considered the plan:
Afghanistan should be administered exactly as the British controlled India –
under a viceroy. Is former US ambassador to Kabul, Zalmay Khalilzad, to be that
Viceroy? He is an ethnic Afghan and is being tipped as special Envoy which is what
the Viceroys were.
Ofcourse, the
senior military brass around Trump shot down the first Prince proposal. But
with Trump beginning to look vulnerable, all manner of risky adventures are
being contemplated. The other day National Security Adviser john Bolton leaked
the alarming news that Syria was about to launch a chemical attack in Idlib.
How did he know? From Hezbullah leader Hasan Nasrallah’s speech last Sunday?
Nasrallah said “data indicates that preparations are underway to stage a new
chemical incident in Idlib”. This is the western “ruse to launch an aggression
on Syria.”
Meanwhile,
there are statements by Iranian Supreme leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei, Russian Foreign
Ministry and reports by independent journalists like Robert Fisk that militant
groups like Jabhat al Nusra, trounced in Syria, are being secretly airlifted to
Northern Afghanistan. There are unconfirmed reports of a Chinese retaliation: a
battalion being raised in the Wakhan Corridor to block terrorism being
transported from Afghanistan. An air strike on the Afghan-Tajik border killed
eight militants. According to the Afghan spokesman Khalil Asir, the origin of
the aircraft remains unclear. Strange things are happening.
US Presidents
have been known to dramatically divert attention when faced with internal
crises. Is some catastrophe being manufactured to protect Trump?
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