West
Asia Building Upto A Turkey-Egypt Catastrophe In Libya
Saeed
Naqvi
As I settled down to write on Libya, the
news ticker opened up the whole West Asian vista.
IAF pilots flying the first batch of
Rafales from the Dassault Aviation Facility in France had barely settled down
to relax at the UAE’s Al Dhafra air base, where they were breaking journey, when
they found themselves exposed to what they feared might be fatal danger. They scrambled
for cover because an Iranian missile landed nearby. They must have heaved a sigh
of relief when it was established, without the shadow of a doubt, that neither
they nor the UAE, were in the Iranian firing line. Iranians, inventive as the
achaemenids have always been, were shooting missiles at a prototype of a US aircraft
carrier Nimitz they had floated in the Strait of Hormuz.
The choreography of the exercises clearly
caused alarm in UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain where US 5th Fleet is docked.
Spokeswoman for the US 5th fleet, Commander Rebecca Rebarich was
furious: “The US Navy conducts defensive exercises with our partners promoting
maritime security in support of freedom of navigation.” She said. “Whereas Iran
conducts offensive exercises attempting to intimidate and coerce.” From the
Iranian side, Commander of the National Guards, Maj. General Hossein Salami was
brazen: “What was shown today in these exercises, at the level of aerospace and
Naval Forces, was all offensive.”
This exchange is representative of the
mood in the entire region. There has not been a day free of tension in the
region for decades but for this narrative let us consider 20 July as the cut
off when Israeli aircraft fatally targeted a Hezbullah Commander, Ali Kamel
Mohsen. Promptly came the Hezbullah response: Zionists should be ready for a
suitable retaliation.
Just as the cauldron was simmering, came
the startling disclosure by Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyah. He told,
Qatari newspaper Al Lusail that major powers had offered $15 billion in aid for
Gaza “provided Hamas gave up armed struggle and laid down arms”. The offer was
rejected.
Facing convulsions within Israel and a
possible change of heart on the issue in Washington, the project of inundating
the West Bank with settlements, the “settlement project” has gone into a limbo.
Occasionally Benjamin Netanyahu shows his oats in neighbouring Syria because of
Israeli paranoia about the Iraqi-Syrian road having been opened. This gives
Tehran a direct land route to Lebanon via Iraq and Syria, creating deep
anxieties in Israel about sophisticated Iranian weapons being ferried to Syria
and arch-enemy, Hezbullah. Every now and again Israel panics into aerial
bombardment of some such transaction.
Not only is the Iran, Iraq, Syria,
Lebanon road link a menace, the Hezbullah, Hashd al Shaabi in Iraq and the Houthis
in Yemen, the pro Iranian arc, are persistently menacing the Saudis and Israel.
In these choppy waters, Jordanian Prime
Minister, Omar Razzaz tosses a boulder: he made the startling suggestion that a
single Israeli-Palestinian state would be acceptable to Jordan provided “equal
rights were given to both people.” This was novel beyond recognition in an area
where a two-state solution has been the mantra for three decades. Not only is
the thought absurd in itself, it blissfully overlooks the “Jewish nation state
law” passed by the Knesset. The law states that all occupied Palestinian
territories belong exclusively to the Jewish people. It is politically impolite
to say so in Amman, but the only Palestinian state which the Right wing Israelis
will ever concede happens to be Jordan.
Against this varied and disturbed
mosaic, the impending Egypt-Turkey confrontation in Libya portends a regional
catastrophe. Before I share this catastrophe with you let me seek your
indulgence just for one paragraph to share my bewilderment, naively maybe, on
an issue I acquainted myself with during my first visit to Libya in 1986 when
President Reagan ordered the bombing of Benghazi and Tripoli in which Qaddafi’s
baby daughter was killed. In my conversation with him in those tense
conditions, he never forgot to mention his pet project – Great Man-Made River,
the world’s largest network of pipes, covering a distance of 2,820 kilometers,
pumping water from the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System. Qaddafi called it the Eighth
wonder of the world. During recent operations, NATO bombed a key segment of the
pipelines. It is universally accepted that this miraculous source of pure,
underground water, its cost barely 10 percent of desalination projects, which
will last anywhere between a 1,000 to 100 years, in a region where water
security is projected to be a serious problem in the future – why is there no
mention of this project in a nation being looted by major powers? Is it
happening so stealthily?
Now to the Turkish-Egyptian confrontation
building up in Libya: it will be like the clashing of the Cymbals, the
crescendo in a Wagner symphony. When Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, was
toppled by US-Israeli machinations in 2013 and the then Saudi Crown Prince
turned up in Cairo with an offer of $eight billion to help Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi
ascend the Egyptian throne, what was the Saudi motivation? Remember Juhayman al
Otaybi and his 400-500 supporters had occupied the Mecca mosque in 1979, virtually
the same month as when the Ayatullahs ousted the Shah of Iran. This internal
rebellion by an extreme variety of the Brothers is what Saudis fear more than
Iranian Shiaism. Sisi is Hosni Mubarak II reincarnated to keep the Brothers
under his heel. To Israel’s chagrin, the Brothers are a powerful influence on Hamas,
whose links with Qatar are secure. Qatar meanwhile relies on the Turkish army. Notice
the linkages?
Tayyip Erdogan who restarted “Namaz” at
Hagia Sophia, has come out, all guns blazing as an unabashed Brother. His clash
with Sisi, the oppressor or Brothers in Egypt, will cut the ground from under
Sisi’s feet. That clash has to be avoided by forces which, alas, are these days
preoccupied with issues of their own survival.
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