Syria Shifts Focus From Genocide In Gaza, Looming Defeat In Ukraine

 Syria Shifts Focus From Genocide In Gaza, Looming Defeat In Ukraine

                                                                                       Saeed Naqvi

“Assad has fled his country. His protector Russia was not interested in protecting him any longer.” This is the President elect Donald Trump’s observation on the events in Syria. How will these words echo with President Volodymyr Zelensky fighting with his back to the wall in Ukraine. If Russia can drop Assad, will Trump keep an albatross around his neck?

Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu, literally fighting with his back to the wall with Hezbollah and Hamas, has exulted: “Assad’s fall reverses the most important part of the “Shia” axis with Iran.” The Israeli premier’s exultation would ring true if Iran had not been polite in its good bye to Assad. With usual subtlety, Iran has distinguished between Assad and Syria.

Quite in sync has been the statement by the leader of the rebels Abu Mohammad al Jolani, much the most important rebel leader. His refrain “Syria is for all Sunnis, Alawis, Christians, Druze” has found wide traction.

The earthshaking news that Assad’s fall has promoted is, quite ironically, the abrupt disappearance from the front page of two wars that have kept the world in their thrall. Why should a war inching towards a nuclear exchange been abruptly taken off the air waves? Because the West was losing?

Not only are the Syrian developments a welcome diversion for the West from wars that were not going well for the West. Assad’s fall also has the potential of being spun as a vindication of the Arab Spring. “Get out of the way, Assad” ordered Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She can now claim to have been vindicated, even though the circumstances in 2011 were totally different.

The growing consensus among non mainstream media experts is this: the western effort in Ukraine is not to accept an obvious defeat. Moreover, everything has to avert a debacle. The new treasure trove in cash and weaponry to Kyiv, would, in Trump’s parlance, be tantamount to throwing good money after bad. He is quiet for a simple reason: he would like to negotiate honorably with Putin. He would not like to throw in the towel but have Zelensky on his feet walk towards Putin to strike a bargain however degrading which the pliant media will sell with favourable headlines.

Ofcourse, there is a pall of mist on the rapidity with which Assad fell. The almost cheerful appearance of Assad and his wife granted asylum in Moscow tells its own tale. Russian bases in Syria have been promised full protection by the incoming regime in Damascus.

Stories of vandalism of Iranian embassy appear to be solo incidents without any organizational support.

There are so many fingers in the Syrian pie that it is difficult to spot the master choreographer. That Russia has vital interests in Syria as it does in Ukraine makes it the key author of the surprising turn.

Two other developments in the region have been marked by their masterly stealth: Riyadh-Tehran rapprochement and the coming together of all Palestinian groups ranging from Hamas to the Palestinian authority. Both these arrangements were painstakingly stitched together by China. Never in history have China and Russia been closer.

There have been plenty of agreements on issues stretching from Ukraine to East Mediterranean. Take the Astana process for Syria, for instance, between Russia, Iran and Turkey.

In the deal a crucial player is also Turkey. So far, standing four squares behind Hamas as it faces history’s first live televised genocide, have been the following: Iran, Hezbollah, Hazb al Shaabi (Iraq) and the Houthis of Yemen – all Shia variants. A prominent role being assigned to Turkey in Syrian affairs, brings a major Sunni country into focus. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s profile receives a boost. Is Azerbaijan part of the deal with Turkey where Iranian interests are considerable?

Russians along with Turkey and Iran appear to have played an amazing hand. Assad’s fall provides a face saver for Israel and US in West Asia and for the West in Ukraine.

The chaotic situation in Georgia where the President Salome Zourabichvili refuses to accept the Pro Russia verdict of the national elections held in October. This is not the only flashpoint President Trump faces when he enters the White House. The US’s key interest in the Pacific Basis has been blown to Smithereen, by inept politics in South Korea.

Former State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland’s handiwork in Ukraine is tearing apart. Likewise Donald Lu Under Secretary of State for South Asia has egg on his face for the explosive situation developing in Bangladesh. Pakistan and Afghanistan are on edge as are Romania, Moldova. Having called snap elections President Emanuel Macron finds himself without a government in France because he will not have a leftist Prime Minister. Fascism stares Germany in the face.

This incomplete list of the world’s chaotic spots is simply to place in balance the dwindling G7 and the expanding BRICS.

Is isolationism implicit in Trump’s clarion call – “Make America great again?

The US has faced decline but it bounced back under Ronald Reagan.

The fall of the Soviet Union, for reasons of its own, brought the US into focus as the Sole Superpower. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 signaled the flaws in the Neo Cons mismanagement of globalization.

Trump would do well to remember his conversation with Jimmy Carter. “The Chinese are going ahead of us”, Trump lamented. “What should we do?” Carter’s reply was succinct. “Except for one skirmish with Vietnam in 1979, China has not fought a war; we have never stopped being at war.”

The US’s 760 bases worldwide and wars without end were glibly explained: the Military Industrial Complex has to be kept busy. Defeats in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine should cause military analysts to pause.

The recent relentless bombardment of the Gaza strip by one of the great military powers, without achieving any of its war aims and heaping upon itself the odium of an Apartheid state committing genocide for over a year on live television defies description. How will Trump cope?

#          #          #          #

Yahya Sinwar’s Death: Temporary Relief For Israelis, Motivation for Resistance

Yahya Sinwar’s Death: Temporary Relief For Israelis, Motivation for Resistance

                                                                                       Saeed Naqvi

Celebrations in Israel at the elimination of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas leader who masterminded October 7, 2023, is an expression of relief by some Israelis. Does Sinwar’s death mean victory for Israel? The 100 or so Israeli hostages are still in Hamas hands. By non Israeli accounts, Hamas’s recruitment drive is in full swing for “the long war”. Does Israel have the stamina for that war?

Bombing and destroying missions are easy because replenishments for such warfare are readily available with the “Military Industrial complex” in the US. The priceless asset for victory are foot soldiers and equipment for ground invasion. These are in short supply eversince the US became averse to setting boots on the ground.

The lesson Israel and their patrons, the Americans, must learn is this: aerial boom-boom-boom is gripping TV. It is good for destroying nations but it is useless in fighting nationalism – in Gaza or in Lebanon.

The death of Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, likewise, has further fueled resistance in Southern Lebanon. Has the IDF been able to break through the Hezbullah resistance on the ground? In fact by Lebanese accounts, Israel is having to ferry more dead and wounded Israeli soldiers than they had ever bargained for.

It just so happens that the terrain Israeli ground troops must break through to enter Lebanon is contiguous with the 120 km Blue Line which the United Nations Interim Force or UNIFIL monitors.

Let me share with you my experience of the Blue Line when in 2002 an Indian, Maj. Gen. Lalit Mohan Tiwari was the Force Commander of 10,000 strong UNIFIL. An additional advantage to me as an Indian journalist and my camera crew was the fact that a 900 strong Indian battalion – INDBATT, with its own chain of command operated under UNIFIL.

UNIFIL headquarters were in the town of Naqoura, in the 1,060 sq kms area the force commanded between the Blue Line a sort of border between Israel and Lebanon and Litani river. Tiwari’s residence was in Haifa, Israeli third largest city. He commuted daily between Naqoura and Haifa.

Even though the headquarters were in Southern Lebanon, the Force Commander’s accommodation in Haifa would appear to have given the Israelis a sense of control then. The situation today would be different. Until recently the Force Commander was Irish, a nation singularly critical of the genocide in Gaza.

The assumption that all the area under UNIFIL is only Shia is wrong. Yes, most of the area is Shia and possibly Hezbullah but there are several villages supervised by Christian Mayors. INDBATT was in a village under a Mayor who gave us a lecture one evening on how his village was known in history as the place where the world’s best Arrack was brewed. A Shia Muslim village would not boast of its Arrack. It was a Christian village. The over 40 countries represented in UNIFIL manned the 50 posts scattered around. Fierce fighting is obviously causing the IDF to look for “soft” points through which to make the penetration. Today the UNIFIL cannot just be wished away simply because Israel finds it inconvenient. The Sole Super Power moment is over.

Tiwari had a plausible manner with the Israeli as well as the Hezbullah side. In fact he even advanced my case to meet the Hezbullah supremo, Hassan Nasrallah. The interview did not take place but Tiwari did introduce me to a Hezbullah official who said “Let me try.”

What happened was a cloak and dagger sequence which began at a non descript apartment block in Dahieh, much in the news recently. A smart young man with a trimmed beard led me onto yet another large car. He apologized that our camera team was not being allowed to accompany me. I was finally led into a basement divided by a large curtain and invited to sit in one of two sofas arranged quite typically for an interview.

Finally a kindly looking man, grey beard, a brown gown and a white turban seated himself opposite me. It was not Nasrallah but his long time Deputy, Naeem Qasim.

History of the region had begun to change dramatically after the Shah of Iran, a western bastion, fell in 1979. The consolidation of the Ayatullahs in Tehran was only one of the reasons for Israeli Defence Minister Ariel Sharon to march into Lebanon in 1982 which, in turn, spurred Hezbullah’s growth.

This was the backdrop against which Syria and Iran were able to work together during the dramatic 17 days in 1985 when militants (no one knew who) forced a TWA flight from Athens to Rome to land in Beirut. To negotiate the release of 36 Western hostages, Speaker of Iran’s Majlis Hashemi Rafsanjani and Syria’s Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam pooled in their skills with the most influential Shia leader in Lebanon, Nabi Berri, Speaker of the Lebanese parliament. He played a key role in arranging for the release of the hostages.

Berri’s parliamentary politics was overtaken by Nasrallah’s military response to Israel’s aggression internally from within Lebanon and frequent attacks on Palestinian positions in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, the West Bank –– all gave impetus to the resistance groups. By 2020, before his assassination by the US outside Baghdad airport, Iranian Commander Qasim Suleimani had already created firm linkages between various resistance groups. Those linkages are in plan today.

Quite remarkably, Israeli occupation of Lebanon and US occupation of Iraq caused the world to wake up to a new reality: Shias were an overwhelming majority in Iraq and the largest block in Lebanon. Houthis of Yemen are a variant of the mainstream Shias just as are the Alawis, the most powerful group in Syria.

A great irony lies at the heart of these Shia groups pooling in their resources to end Israeli genocide in Gaza: the Hamas in Gaza is true blue Sunni Akhwan ul Muslimeen or the Muslim Brotherhood, a detail on which the western media buries its head in the sand.

#          #          #          #

Rein In Rampaging Capitalism Or Liberal Democracy Has Had It

Rein In Rampaging Capitalism Or Liberal Democracy Has Had It

                                                                                          Saeed Naqvi

That Juan Guaido, 41, has in his CV described himself as the “ex President of Venezuela – 2019-2023” is not all fiction. Even when the world sleeps, the leader of the Free World is in relentless pursuit of replacing dictatorships with democracy worldwide. Replacing Nicolas Maduro in Caracas with Guaido was one such enterprise.

“The Munro doctrine is alive and well” boomed Rex Tillerson, President Trump’s Secretary of State. It was therefore legitimate for US agencies to find a friend to be installed on the throne in Caracas. Venezuela has the world’s largest reserves of hydro carbons.

Vice President Mike Pence was given charge to keep a steady gaze on Guaido as he commuted between Colombia, the US and Venezuela to somehow ascend the gaddi.

As soon as the failed Guaido initiative became part of global amnesia, the leader of the Free World was dutifully at it again. Headline are still fresh about yet another failed effort to dethrone Maduro.

Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp told Parliament that Venezuela opposition leader Edmundo Gonzales has sought refuge in the Dutch Embassy. Before his papers for exile in the Netherlands could be processed, he found cultural continuity where he is now likely to stay – Spain. It would be interesting to see what new salvo is fired for democracy. It must be galling for the US agencies that colour revolutions are no longer giving the desired results.

Western covert operation must have taken heart from developments where their very own Fulbright scholar, Mohammad Yunus has shown the door to Shaikh Hasina whose emotional ties to India and practical ones with China were becoming something of a puzzle.

This narrative would be woefully off the mark if the explosion of public anger at Sheikh Hasina’s dictatorship is underplayed. It possibly provided the objective conditions which outsiders have exploited. It must be added in parenthesis that scholars like Jeffrey Sachs have been quite emphatic. State Department’s Donald Lou has been as active in Bangladesh and Pakistan as Victoria Nuland was in Ukraine.

While “regime change” apparatus is still functional in the US, Europe in its post colonial phase is having no use for it. It has other ways to ward off the Left – occasionally tipping the scales even in favour of fascism.

Look at what was East Germany, fascism has quite impressively opened its accounts in two states. Political theatre in France has an engaging story-line: how to stop the Left?

This story actually begins at the European Union elections in June where Marine Le Pen’s Right extremist, National Rally, trounced Emmanuel Macron’s Right-of-Centre Ensemble by miles. In a state of funk Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called for national elections. The anxious French President hoped to recover lost ground. Exactly the opposite happened. Le Pen zoomed past him with 33% votes in the first round. Not very far behind was Left Alliance. Macron came third with 21%. Here was no absolute majority.

The fifth Republic had had it, should Le Pen win the second round. A fascist as President of France? The Left front and Macron withdrew over 200 candidates from triangular contests to prevent a division of anti Le Pen vote.

The trick worked but only to the extent that it stopped Le Pen. She came third, but Macron and his corporate supporters were in turmoil because the Left Front galloped way ahead. Macron’s neo-con agenda would clash head on with the Left Front’s socialism.

Instead of appointing a Left front Prime Minister as numbers in the National Assembly dictate, Macron placed the mantle on the Michel Barnier from the Republican stable.

Will the Socialist break ranks from the Left front? If not, the possible backroom deals could be sinister. Suppose, Barnier’s minority government is supported by Le Pen from the outside? She will then control the fifth republic.

People’s will as expressed by the progress of the Left front, will have been effectively neutralized by Macron-Barnier’s neo cons agenda.

Social welfare, price rise, health care, unemployment – issues that define the lives of people, will have been replaced by migration, identity politics, Islamophobia, military budgets, the staple that fascism feeds on.

What is being played out on an epic scale in France is more or less the pattern in most western democracies. Remember the excitement that was generated when Alexis Tsipras became the first communist Prime Minister of Greece, the cradle of western civilization.

No sooner had Communist reared its head in a European country than Germany, the biggest donor in EU, sat on Tsipras’s back. Greece’s debts would not be honoured.

In Spain the rise of 39 year old Pablo Iglesias as leader of leftist Podemos, at about the same time as Tsipras in Greece, caused frenzied response from the establishment: Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy whose unspeakable corruption had precipitated the election which brought up Podemos was manoevred into another term, corruption or no corruption. By attrition Podemos was killed.

It was clear as daylight that Bernie Sanders was derailed by the Democratic Party establishment largely for his socialist image. I wrote then: “If you make Sanders impossible, you make Trump inevitable.” Likewise, if Jeremy Corbyn is impossible, Boris Johnson become inevitable. He succeeded clowning around as Prime Minister briefly. Right wingers in the Labour party like Peter Mandelson had sworn to “undermine” Corbyn.

As the Bible says: “there is no new thing under the sun.”

This had been the pattern ever, since Franklin Delano Roosevelt pulled his country out of the Great Depression of the 30s and 40s by taxing the very rich to pay for the welfare schemes. The socialist, communist and the unions had pressured him. The most popular American President in history who died in his fourth term ended up spawning corporate paranoia which has not lost momentum to this day. Joseph McCarthy remains a reaction to anything resembling New Deal. His spirit lives. Atleast in those early days of unbridled capitalism, a journalist of CBS News like Ed Murrow could single handedly demolish McCarthy. Today the field is wide open for capitalist callousness.

#          #          #          #

Bangladesh: Images Like Dry Flower From My Notebook

Bangladesh: Images Like Dry Flower From My Notebook

                                                                                      Saeed Naqvi

(A)             Bangladesh was created behind my back. Since I was a reporter with The Statesman, I was surprised that I was being kept away from the Bangladesh war where friend Raghu Rai was producing brilliant photographs and Peter Hazelhurst of The Times, London, was well on his way to winning the Reporter of the year award in the UK. Why was I being held back?

Light dawned with a call from Ram Mohan Rao, Defence Ministry spokesman (he retired as Principal Information Officer) who was in touch with editors about war coverage. He had spoken to my editor and requested me to be at the Defence Ministry within hours. An army vehicle would drive selected foreign correspondents and a handful of us, to the Western theatre where a fierce battle was shaping up in Chhamb.

This consolation assignment had come my way because after deep deliberation, the Editor and Defence Ministry came to the conclusion that it would be dangerous to send me to the Bangladesh theatre: I might be mistaken for a Punjabi/Pakistani Muslim and killed.            

(B)              It look establishments a while to realize that the emergence of Bangladesh had radically altered the geography of the subcontinent. 

The Partition of India in 1947 had created two nations, India and Pakistan, in hostile competition with each other. The two nations drew global attention on sub continental issues, like Kashmir, for instance, from their respective perspectives. 

Bangladesh in 1971 dramatically altered this geography. India became a large country surrounded by small ones. 

To manage India’s bigness, leaders like Zia ur Rehman of Bangladesh thought of South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC). How was this size going to be managed? The countries encircling India flourished a China card in their lapel. 

SAARC was launched in 1980, exactly a year after China embarked on the “Four modernizations” under Deng Xiaoping’s guidance. In other words, from the very beginning of its “rise”, China was in SAARC’s ken. Still basking in the Moscow-Beijing-Washington strategic balance he had single handedly put into place, Henry Kissinger wished more strength to the new found friend – China. 

Could India have juggled to its advantage the smaller nations encircling it or did it do the right thing by allowing SAARC to flounder on the rocks called Pakistan? 

(C)              The first time I visited Bangladesh was as part of the press entourage which accompanied Prime Minister, Morarji Desai in 1979. 

Dhaka was superficially pleasant but layers upon layers of complexities did not take much time to surface. Gulshan, the colony for the elite, had many homes which reached out to Indian guests with warmth and hospitality but these were also tinged by a Dhaka versus Kolkata complex. One had sensed a similar “Chennai-Colombo” complex in Sri Lanka. 

An issue that became something of a metaphor for India-Bangladesh relations surfaced during Morarji Desai’s visit. Among the transactions decided was the gift of substantial quantities of food grains Bangladesh urgently required. Once the delegation level talks were over, Prakash Shah, a senior official in the PMO, invited some of us to his room and switched on the only official Bangla TV that was available. Other officials – Hansmukh Shah, Rajamani, soon joined us. 

They were keen to find out how the official media played up the visit, particularly the transfer of grains. 

Hours passed and there was no story. Maybe it has been slotted for prime time? That too passed. Eventually, a tepid mention of the visit was made, but no mention of grains. 

Two attitudes stood out. Eager as the Indians were for demonstrable gratitude, the Bangla side was equally determined to deny the Indians just that. 

Remember what we learnt from our elders: do good and forget. 

(D)             Prime Minister Inder Gujral, always thinking out of the box, sometimes without reading South Block too well, invited me to accompany him to the India, Pakistan, Bangladesh summit he had worked hard to organize in Dhaka in January 1998. 

Well, on this trip I found myself with friends but all from Bengal: Nikhil Chakravarty, Tarun Basu and every Chatterjee, Mukherjee, Sen, Ghosh within hailing distance. There was method in the composition. I was included, quite simply to provide a Muslim flavouring to the Indian team. 

No sooner was the press delegation past immigration and customs, when a cheerful almost ecstatic group of journalists lunged at the exit from the customs hall and got mixed up with the visiting journos, hugging each other. “Baap re baap”, “Ki khabor”, “Bhalo, bhalo” and other Bengali greetings I do not know. 

Never in all my life have I felt more lonesome with my Islamic identity the Prime Minister of India had thrust upon me for the trip. 

Linguistic regionalism trumped Islam by a long shot. Was not this precisely which smashed the two-nation theory in 1971 when Bangladesh was born? 

On the way back I could never forget an expression of extreme satisfaction etched as a permanent smile on Tarun Basu’s face. The fellow was carrying a large ice box filled with Illish from the Padma River, enough to open a small fish kiosk outside his house in Chittaranjan Park. 

(E)              During Christmas and New Year, one’s social popularity can be gauged by the number of greeting cards on the drawing room cornice. Whenever I received a greeting on tasteful art paper in neat handwriting from Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi in mid April I accepted it as one of Dr. Joshi’s exquisite eccentricities. Wisdom dawned when I found myself in Dhaka on April 15 for a most spectacular celebration of Poelo Baisakh, our/their ancient New Year. 

The maidan was a riot of colour – men in colourful kurtas and women in saris of all hues. There was no forehead without a bindi. At a lunch party in the residence of famous editor Mahfuz Anam, celebrations were on an unimaginable scale. His wife stood at the entrance with a tray full of bindis which she placed on the foreheads of all the women among the guests who entered. 

In the distance, a lovely voice sang Rabindra Sangeet interspersed with Nazrul geet which, unlike Tagore songs, are ironically rich with Tandav, Durga, Kali, Shiva. 

#          #          #          #

Is There An Israel In The Endgame?

Is There An Israel In The Endgame?

                                                             Saeed Naqvi

The brutal realism of Tarantino’s Django Unchained may well cause the weak of stomach to throw up. A white plantation owner in America’s deep south, seated on a sofa in his living room, watches two burly slaves wrestle to the grim end or atleast until one of them has gouged out the eyes of the other.

Outside, a pack of hungry dogs, larger in size than wolves, are let loose on a slave who tries in vain to clamber onto a tree.

“As flies to wanton boys are we to the Gods” laments Lear in the wilderness, “they kill us for their sport.” Replace “Gods” with “Whites” in Shakespeare line and place it in the mouth of a bleeding black slave at a climactic moment on Broadway or the Westend and the actor would probably receive multiple standing ovations.

All standing ovations would pale before what Benjamin Netanyahu coaxed out of US Congressmen on the Capitol Hill. They wouldn’t stop rising like there were nails on their seats.

This is not the first time Netanyahu has had the joint sessions of Congress riveted on him. The Congress has submitted to Netanyahu’s choreography on four occasions. He has thereby beaten Winston Churchill’s record for the number of appearances before Congress.

On one occasion President Barack Obama was opposed to his presence in Washington. Netanyahu defied the White House and addressed the joint session, one standing ovation after another. Eggs on Obama’s face were impossible to count.

What explains Israel’s extraordinary influence in Washington? I have interviewed Prime Minister, Yitzhak Shamir, Yitzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres and Netanyahu. There is no doubt that Netanyahu knows his America better than all the others. For this there are simple reasons. His having studied at Harvard and MIT gave him a wide, influential network which he has assiduously cultivated. His stint as Israel’s ambassador at the UN from 1984 to 88, helped him boost and consolidate his links with the Jews in New York and California. After Tel Aviv, New York has the largest population of Jews and the world’s most influential.

Analysts casually cite the Israel lobby in the US as the body that keeps US foreign policy aligned with Israeli interest. In fact “Israel Lobby And US Foreign Policy” a seminal work on the subject by Prof. John Mearscheimer of Chicago University and Prof. Stephen Walt, Harvard, explains how deep the lobby’s tentacles are in all branches of the US establishment.

Shameful is a mild word to describe representatives of the American people doing jumping jack exercises, with a mixture of military precision and uncommon obsequiousness. Do people not matter in American democracy in matters concerning Israel? Is it exclusively a circus of capital, donors and lobbies. The National Rifle Association will successfully thwart any reform even though gun violence kills 12 school children every day in the land of the free.

The Nakba or the catastrophe of 1948 when Israeli villages were emptied of Palestinians was horrible. There have been similar horrors down the line. But the endlessness of current brutalities are, quite ironically, a harbinger of better future for the Palestinians.

All previous Nakbas were a function of Israeli self confidence. Israel knew that all its tantrums would be overlooked, sometimes encouraged by the sole superpower. Defence Secretary Caspar Weinberger’s definition of Israel as the US’s unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Middle East was apt – only so long as the US was an uncontested super power.

In 2008 after Lehman Brothers came down like the Titanic, there has been no arrest of the hegemon’s decline. Many US institutions have lost their sheen – the Military Industrial Complex (MIC), for instance.

This much touted “COMPLEX” has not enabled the US to win Vietnam, Iraq and we remember vividly the messy departure from Afghanistan in August 2021 after 20 years of occupation. The MIC can help destroy countries, not win wars.

One purpose of provoking Putin into the Ukrainian theatre was for the US to recover lost prestige. The opposite has happened. Joe Biden has to bow out for unfortunate reasons; Putin, holding Xi Jinping’s reliable hands, is looking plausible as a global statesman, the two navigating BRICS way beyond G7.

Against this perspective the Nakba 2024 is different. On all previous occasions Israel could take for granted absolute support from the sole superpower.

Today the hegemon, which carried Imperialism on its shoulders, is in free fall. The Israeli establishment is aware of the altered circumstance.

Meanwhile Netanyahu has placed himself in a corner. He cannot dismount the tiger because the tiger will devour him if he does. So he must fight on albeit keep bombing Palestinians. He must keep fighting for another reason: he has promised total victory over Hamas, an impossible proposition by all calculations.

Ceasefire short of total victory will be tantamount to defeat. The Palestinians will be in wild celebration (1,60,000 deaths according to Lancet’s calculation) notwithstanding. The US, which is staring at defeat in Ukraine also, cannot allow the Israeli aircraft carrier to sink. That will be a nail in the collective coffin of the West.

Folks forget that the US’s relations with Saudi Arabia predate the creation of Israel in 1948. It was in 1945 that President Roosevelt and Shah Saud, founder of Saudi monarchy, met on USS Quincy in the Suez Canal to ratify agreements on how Arab oil will be shared by the West in exchange for guarantees of security in the context of the Cold War.

When the Cold War ended in 1990-91, the Iranian revolution, the Shia axis, Islamic terror were brought into play to scare the Arabs – to keep the oil for security policies in place. But now scarecrows no longer scare the avions. Therefore Saudi Arabia, nudged by China, has shaken hands with Tehran. It has, effectively joined the global south. This Israel cannot do. At China’s behest again, all Palestinian groups, Hamas and Fatah included, have agreed to join hands for managing Gaza the day after the war.

Wait a minute. The other day the Ukrainian Foreign Minister was sighted in Beijing, a capital most friendly with Putin. What on earth is going on?

#          #          #          #

Allies Missing In Cabinet And Future Of INDIA Alliance

Allies Missing In Cabinet And Future Of INDIA Alliance

                                                                                     Saeed Naqvi

Zamana kiski raoonat pe khak daal gaya?

Ye kaun bol raha tha khuda ke lehje mein?

(On whose arrogance has time heaped a pile of dust?

Who was it pretending to speak the language of Gods?)

I thought this definition of hubris by Iftekhar Arif had summed it all up until I saw the Prime Minister, the great illusionist that he is, go through the swearing in ceremony as if nothing had happened. All the key cabinet posts had been retained by colleagues in the pre election government. Where were the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners, Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar’s nominees?

“Unconditional surrender” screamed one journalist known for his outspokenness. He does not realize that the name of the game for the two allies is “power” in their respective states not cabinet posts. Remaining outside the union cabinet enhances their capacity to blackmail. This way they strengthen their power base in the states. In any case, Chandrababu Naidu’s pet project is the capital of Andhra Pradesh, Amravati. Nehru invited Le Corbusier to design Chandigarh. Naidu is dreaming on a grander scale.

Neither Naidu, nor Nitish are secure in their regional charisma. Should their nominee acquire a high post in the Union Cabinet he may strike a profile which, in time, will begin to challenge the sponsor.

Nitish would have been a huge embarrassment at the centre. His mental balance is, by universal consent, hugely impaired. But he has the residual cunning to try and manage early elections in Bihar. He hopes to increase his JDU numbers in the state by being part of the NDA alliance.

The INDIA alliance has made history but it has to be extremely careful until its coherence survives the test of time.

Lay saans bhi ahista

Ke nazuk hai bahut kaam

Aafaaq ke is kargahe

Sheesha gari ka

(Breathe gently in this glass work;

The cosmic arrangement is too delicately balanced.)

It has been an anxious past decade which is why Mir Taqi Mir’s words of caution come to mind every time one fears a faulty step by INDIA. So far, the alliance has played beautifully but it must be careful because the media will not change overnight. Big corporates are still busy shoring up Modi. In the meantime, the media can play a disruptive hand. Election results were a vote of no confidence in the mainstream media too. With its credibility so suspect, will its moves be effective in unsettling INDIA? But it can create ill will almost imperceptibly. Some days ago front pages of newspapers and the TV channels had one photograph. Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra in one frame being repeated several times.

What is the effect of this photograph? The coterie around the party leadership sees in this projection a vindication of their dream. INDIA is, after all, Congress led. The party’s climb to 100 seats is a result of Rahul Gandhi’s incredibly successful yatras. He is now a mature leader who helped author a people-friendly manifesto, sensitive to the yawning economic inequalities.

Fair enough, but was it not the Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav who trounced the BJP in its seemingly impregnable fortress of UP. He is the giant killer who helped win 43 Parliament seats in the most populous state. That it was Akhilesh Yadav who bearded the BJP lion in his den is the extraordinary event of the campaign which the media will not project at all leave alone with the frequency of the three Gandhis in a frame. Neither the Congress nor the Gandhis are to blame, but they should be aware that optics can be misunderstood by touchy coalition partners.

I remember a conversation I had with Akhilesh in Lucknow in 2017. He said he was let down by Rahul despite an understanding. “Yeh log hamare saath baithna bhi pasand naheen kartey.” (These people – Rahul Gandhi, etcetera – are uncomfortable even sitting with us.) He was giving vent to his caste angst. The stakes are too high for the INDIA to allow such sensitivities to create misunderstanding. Much has happened since 2017. Rahul and Akhilesh are mature leaders today. The good news is that the effort at playing spoilsport for the Alliance to shore up Modi will be undertaken by the same “Godi” media which has been roundly thrashed in the recent elections. A hundred flowers bloomed in the digital youtube media. Brilliant journalism flourished outside the compromised mainstream. This new, bubbly media threw up star journalists. It clearly had a hand in the electoral outcome.

New Delhi’s drawing rooms are misleading places to gauge national politics. The tendency of the upwardly mobile middle class is to locate connections in the emerging power equations. This class is happy that the Modi juggernaut has been halted in good time, before it could destroy the liberal Constitution in order to install a theocratic Hindu nation. That has been averted. But the alternative that is emerging is not the one this class is comfortable with.

This elite has dreamt up India as a non existent two party system – BJP or the Congress. It grimaces at the BJP’s anti Muslim excesses and finds the Congress better mannered on this count. But what this class sees on offer is not the Congress but INDIA alliance. The Congress is admittedly the largest party, but SP’s Akhilesh Yadav is an equal stake holder. The Congress contribution is quantitative by virtue of its spread across the country. Akhilesh’s contribution is qualitative. Wrenching UP away from the BJP was an unbelievable achievement. TMC’s Mamata Banerjee in Kolkata and other Alliance members deserve equal attention.

Ye maikhana hai,

Bazm e Jum naheen hai

Yahan koi kisi se kum

            Naheen hai

(This is a Tavern, not Jamshed’s Palace

Nobody is higher than anyone here.)

Just as well that a Rahul-Akhilesh dhanyawad (Thank you) yatra across UP is being put together – to begin with.

 

#          #          #          #

Communalism Plus Nationalism, Something Like Balakot Required For Absolute Victory

Communalism Plus Nationalism, Something Like Balakot Required For Absolute Victory

                                                                                        Saeed Naqvi

Not far from Prayagraj (Allahabad) are two contiguous villages of Dadupur and Sarangapur in Chhoka block, across the Jamuna river. The two are in the Allahabad constituency. Prayagraj name is not being used for elections. Next door Phoolpur was in the news because two star campaigners were whisked away for security as unbelievably large crowds threatened a stampede. Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav had to be protected. Such massive crowds are indicators which way the electoral balance is tilting.

Dadupur is dominated by Shia Muslims and a sprinkling of Dalits. All Muslims, irrespective of sectarian divisions are presumed to be in opposition to Modi. An aggressive Shia cleric of Lucknow, Saiyyid Kalbe Jawwad, has created some confusion. He has gone and tied an Imamzamin or an amulet on the arm of the candidate from Lucknow, Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh. Was it a signal to Shia voters?

Voting in the constituency was on May 25, but on May 22 three busloads of Shias left for Jogipura Dargah in Najibabad for the annual Urs abandoning their Congress candidate Ujjwal Raman Singh.

Meanwhile, at Sarangapur, dominated by Brahmins, events took a different turn. Erstwhile Pradhan Lakshmi Shankar Mishra received a call from the police station.

As soon as Mishra turned up, he was given an option: either cool your heels at the police station or go home and not be seen in public. Then at Karchchana police station, a worker of the same Congress candidate Ujjwal Singh’s much respected father Rewati Raman Singh, was detained. When reports reached the veteran leader, he drove to the Police station to seek his loyalist’s release. Not only did the police not release his friend, the officer issued a terse note to him: you are not allowed to step out of the thana. Word soon spread and a crowd began to menace the police station. Rewati Raman Singh was allowed to go home.

 

Going by the word of reliable journalists in Lucknow and others who travelled through the state, strong arm behaviour of the police has been something of an epidemic. As I finish writing this sentence, I receive a call from Ambedkarnagar that the police scaled the walls of the opposition candidate’s house to restrain his supporters from stirring out to exert influence.

 

Employing the police in any circumstance has become Yogi Adityanath’s almost natural habit. It may also be to make assurance doubly sure because the stakes have become high since his name has begun to circulate as a Prime Ministerial candidate should such a situation arise. Excessive police action could also be a sign of nervousness because reports from the field are not flattering.

 

In Hindutva circles, there is pronounced disappointment that building the Ram Temple has not been an electoral draw. Building a temple does not stir emotions on the same scale as pulling down a mosque does. Standing with folded hands in front of Rama’s image is a spiritual experience; breaking a mosque to build a temple is an angry emotional experience, translatable into political action.

 

If you watch the photograph of Uma Bharati clambering onto Murli Manohar Joshi’s back watching the demolition of Babari Masjid, the expression on their faces is ecstatic even orgasmic. They were celebrating a violent victory over the Moghuls. It was this kind of experience the nation felt over Balakot in 2019. It helped Modi win the election.

 

Why has something like Balakot not happened this time? What is on trial therefore is pure, undiluted communalism, a sort of Muslim hating not seen before as a means to mobilizing crowds. Mangalsutra that Hindu women wear ritually will be snatched by the Muslims. They will also be handed all the reservations meant for the lower castes. All these anti Hindu monstrosities (goes the allegation) will be the handiwork of the INDIA alliance, a band of Muslim lovers who will go to any lengths to please them. They will even do the mujra made famous by nautch girls to rouse the Muslims. All these wonderful nuggets are part of Modi’s speeches.

 

From this 24 carat communalism observers have drawn different conclusions. One school of thought suggests that plunging headlong into mindless communalism is a sign of nervousness. In other words, the venom in his utterances is rearguard action on his part because he is doing badly in the field. The second school believe the outcome will not be determined by the ballot box but by tricks and stratagems.

 

Careful attention must be given to what Jawed Laiq and Bharati Bhargava have to say after their ritual visit to the Sangam ghats. Covering the 1977 elections, Jawed turned up in Sangam: he found the boatmen and the pilgrims from every part of the country a huge resource. That is how he got a world scoop: Indira Gandhi would lose the election. He made the Sangam his regular hunting ground for election results. He came up trumps most of the times.

 

This time he has returned with intelligence not available to others, after speaking to such diverse Sangam pilgrims as devotees from the North East, tribals from Rajasthan and umpteen other places. Jawed and Bharati were surprised to discover what looked like a wave for Modi.

 

Jawed concluded that the excessive and stark communalism of Modi’s election utterance were not a function of despair and nervousness. They were part of a well crafted strategy: the more vicious his speech the greater his popularity. Muslim bating pleases this lot, but I must insert a caveat: venom alone may not translate into electoral success. For this to happen, I have maintained a consistent theory: communalism has to be tied to nationalism to give political results.

 

Mangalsutra or even the cow by itself is not enough. There has to be the menacing shadow of Pakistan lurking in the background to generate a post Balakot like election changing mood. Let me abide by my theory until June 4 when the results come in.

 

#          #          #          #