Return of Richard Holbrooke
Saeed Naqvi
Dated: 24.07.2010
The Donors conference this week attended by 60 Foreign Ministers and other leaders, including UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon was, among other things, a demonstration by NATO and US led forces that they have the military muscle to host such a meet in Kabul.
And yet this statement of adequate military control was punctured by rocket attacks on Kabul airport causing Ban Ki Moon and Carl Bildt the Swedish Foreign Minister to divert their aircraft in the direction of Bagram air base for safe landing.
Mazar-e-Sharif, the most peaceful city in Afghanistan, became the scene of gruesome killing of allied officers. This month alone 67 US soldiers have been killed.
British Prime Minister David Cameron had in Washington indicated that his country’s troops may start leaving next year. This cannot be honeyed music to the new Force Commander David Petraeus who, more realistically, would like to retard force withdrawals until some unspecified date.
That President Hamid Karzai promises to be in readiness, with cent per cent Afghan Forces and Police, by 2014 must be taken with dollops of salt. The dignitaries in attendance had written him off as “not even a Mayor of Kabul” until last year.
By what magic has the international community been persuaded to regard him as the ultimate saviour, deliverer or whatever else, remains shrouded in mystery.
At some stage New Delhi too began to shower him with admiration, pleading with the “international community” to stop calling him names. I guess that was when New Delhi saw him as someone potentially at cross purposes with Islamabad, as he was during the Musharraf phase in Islamabad. Now that Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, having earned a three year extension, and his ISI chief Gen. Shuja Pasha, by brilliant public relations, established some sort of a rapport with Karzai, New Delhi should be sunk in deep thought.
Some of these deep thoughts must have been shared with Richard Holbrooke, President Obama’s special envoy to Af-Pak, who made one of his rare public appearances in New Delhi.
He was, in a manner of speaking, barred from visiting New Delhi because the Indian establishment, in shrill unison, raised hands and all, blocked any institutionalized interest by him in Kashmir. Remember, “Kashmir” was sought to be added to his Af-Pak mandate.
In fact Holbrooke had come to the region with visions of directing not just US’s political but even military interests. All of that was, of course, circumscribed by Secretary of Defence Robert Gates’ assertiveness.
And now that Holbrooke has resumed his travels to New Delhi, there must be an understanding that he will keep his finger on his lips on the “K” word. But for how long?
Clearly the return of Holbrooke is for several reasons. American officials are full of glowing accounts of the “Happy June” when a series of Indian delegations to Washington laid the foundations for a successful Obama visit later this year.
Preparation for a Presidential visit requires direct participation of the White House and the State Department. Hence the need for Holbrooke.
Also, the US President cannot be seen to be partisan between India, a rising economic and military power with a formidable naval reach, and Pakistan, an ally in the crucial Af-Pak region.
So, already some balm has been applied on Indian wounds by Holbrooke equating Lashkar-e-Taiba with Al Qaeda.
Just as the memory fades of the Krishna – Qureshi mishap in Islamabad, the Indo-Pak thread will once again be picked up. New Delhi, however, cannot proceed very far on this track (just watch the sparks during Parliament’s monsoon session) unless Indian public opinion is assured that the January 6, 2004 Islamabad agreement that the “territory of Pakistan” will not be used for terrorism against India is picked up by the Pak establishment as a serious agreement.
Official helplessness in Islamabad at their inability to control “non state” militant actors appears not to be sustainable after the Headley revelations. Or is there something here which is not in the public domain?
The political minefields on the New Delhi – Islamabad – Kabul – Teheran tracks have to be diligently cleared for a successful visit by the US President. Holbrooke cannot be oblivious to this task.
Once New Delhi’s legitimate misgivings on terrorism are removed, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will give Indo-Pak talks the sort of acceleration that will enable Islamabad to concentrate on the Pakhtoon areas on both sides.
New Delhi has had traditional relations with Pakhtoons and strategic ones with the non Pakhtoon grouping which goes under the blanket term – Northern Alliance. In the latter, Iranians and Russian’s once played a crucial role. That thread is to be picked up surreptitiously.
The hurried, six hour, notional Kabul conference was a desperate way for 60 plus participants to reassure the world that their collective efforts on Afghanistan might bear fruit.
But the esteemed participants would have to be victims of a grand delusion that they have not left Afghanistan messier than ever.
Does New Delhi really wish to sully itself in the Afghan slush in a hurry, where, mark my word, no Endgame is in sight. It is even more remote after the Kabul theatre. David Cameron, Nicolas Sarkozy, Medvedev are all New Delhi bound before year end. There is plenty of time to deliberate.
Meanwhile, the Indo-Pak track promises much more provided the US, in preparation for the Obama visit, becomes serious on the elimination of Lashkar-e-Taiba and its affiliates. This too will have to be taken up with other visitors.
# # # # # # # #
Monday, July 26, 2010
Monday, July 19, 2010
Sex Appeal Declines in Indo-Pak Talks
Sex Appeal Declines in Indo-Pak Talks
Saeed Naqvi
Dated: 17.07.2010
The day after External Affairs Minister, S.M. Krishna, left for Islamabad front-page headlines in mainstream English language dailies had set their preferred theme:
“Krishna to nail Pak using Headley: In Islamabad Foreign Minister says he will harp on Headley revelation of ISI links to 26/11”. This was the three columns, three-inch deep headline in the Hindustan Times.
The Hindu: “Krishna cites Headley proof”.
Indian Express: “Krishna’s Pakistan talks get a Headley preface”.
Times of India’s page one single column headline omits Headley’s name: “Krishna kicks off peace meet with hard talk”.
Mail Today, the only newspaper to have the visit covered by its Pakistani stringer, places the story on page five with a gentle headline: “Krishna on a voyage of peace in Pakistan”. One assumes the Mail, relying on its stringer, missed out on all the deep insights furnished by the Indian side which find reflection in the headlines, establishing the mood in which the talks must incubate. So, expect plenty of mutual invective in this quest for peace.
The Mail also provides the insight that Home Minister P. Chidambaram, like Banquo’s ghost, lurked in the background, reminding the interlocutors that terror as a theme must supercede all Indo-Pak banter.
Pakistan has so much terror on its hands, both import and export quality, that it can talk on this theme eternally.
Krishna turns out to be India’s first foreign minister in Pakistan at a phase in sub-continental affairs when Indo-Pak relations are not Pakistan’s first priority.
Pakistan is neck deep in Af-Pak, overstretched in the two Waziristans, Quetta, Afghanistan, an inconsistent United States, unsure of its Taleban “assets”, living with danger of the Army’s possible Islamization, internal political instability. Against this backdrop Indo-Pak talks are not the hottest news at the moment.
Little wonder, Pakistan’s principal English language Newspapers do not lead the front pages with Krishna. Dawn has a single column headline: “Peace talks with a hawkish tinge”.
The News mentions Krishna below the fold: “Krishna brings message of peace”. Pakistan’s hawkish Daily Jung, quotes Krishna, “India to resolve all issues with Pakistan”.
When Krishna’s Pak visit will be analyzed by Indian Pundits, Pakistan itself will be riveted on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit on Monday to underpin the strategic dialogue with Pakistan.
Since Clinton will then proceed to Kabul for an International Peace Conference, Pakistani columnists will go to town on “US takes the Pak route to Afghan peace!”
The Indo-Pak track in other words, will proceed but haltingly. In this step by step deliberation lies some hope for New Delhi being able to firm up the January 6, 2004 agreement signed in Islamabad that the “territory of Pakistan” will not be used for terrorism against India.
An unstated, psychological obstruction in Indo-Pak normalcy happens to be, in absentia, the persona of Gen. Pervez Musharraf. It so happens that the most promising phase in Indo-Pak, and New Delhi-Srinagar tracks respectively was during Gen. Musharraf’s watch in Pakistan – 2002 to 2006.
The civilian leadership is averse to giving credit to Musharraf on any count. Since Manmohan Singh’s target is to arrive at the sort of understanding that was reached with Musharraf on, for instance, the LOC becoming “irrelevant”, the edifice has to be reconstructed, brick by brick, with such of the civilian leadership as exists in Islamabad.
Mind you, even on this brick by brick approach there are curbs since Gen. Ashfaq Kayani has reverted to the pre Musharraf incantation of the Pak army being primarily focused on India.
While New Delhi refocuses its foreign policy options, the track that can be given some acceleration is the one that stretches from New Delhi to Srinagar.
Season of great hope had opened up in Srinagar with a “real” election in October, 2002. The National Conference was defeated and the PDP came to power in coalition with the Congress.
Atal Behari Vajpayee’s talks with the Hurriet, his epoch making visit to Islamabad on Jan 6, 2004, Kashmir Corps Commander Lt. Gen. Vinayak Patankar’s humane approach to Kashmiris, had all created an ambience of peace.
The emergence of the UPA in May, 2004 retarded the process, not because Prime Minister Manmohan Singh applied breaks on it but because all transitions impede continuity. But Manmohan Singh steadied himself and opened Kashmiri bus routes, trans border trade, inching towards the rendering of “borders irrelevant” policy.
Meanwhile, misfortune followed Musharraf in battalions until his ouster.
Arrival of Omar Abdullah in Kashmir promised a “new dawn” which, alas, did not materialize. After dithering, New Delhi has placed Kashmir very unobtrusively under P. Chidambaram. Unfortunately, the cat leapt out of the bag inadvertently. When the Omar cabinet was “going thorough the motions” of discussing lifting of the curfew on Shab-e-meraj, Home Secretary G.K. Pillai announced in New Delhi the decision on national TV! “Bring in Governor’s rule, if you like, but please don’t insult us like this” wailed members of the Kashmir cabinet.
Also, Commissioners of all state Ministries have been “ordered” (by the Centre) to submit progress reports of respective departments by the 9th of each month.
In other words, the state administration is now on a leash without dethroning the young Chief Minister. Slowly, devolution dialogues will follow. In time, progress on the New Delhi – Srinagar track will progress in step with the calibrated peace process with Islamabad. But what kind of Islamabad? The one paralyzed by terrorism and which is having to play its cricket home series against Australia in London at Lords, even as Krishna and Pakistan Foreign Minister Qureshi, well, talk.
# # # # # # # #
Saeed Naqvi
Dated: 17.07.2010
The day after External Affairs Minister, S.M. Krishna, left for Islamabad front-page headlines in mainstream English language dailies had set their preferred theme:
“Krishna to nail Pak using Headley: In Islamabad Foreign Minister says he will harp on Headley revelation of ISI links to 26/11”. This was the three columns, three-inch deep headline in the Hindustan Times.
The Hindu: “Krishna cites Headley proof”.
Indian Express: “Krishna’s Pakistan talks get a Headley preface”.
Times of India’s page one single column headline omits Headley’s name: “Krishna kicks off peace meet with hard talk”.
Mail Today, the only newspaper to have the visit covered by its Pakistani stringer, places the story on page five with a gentle headline: “Krishna on a voyage of peace in Pakistan”. One assumes the Mail, relying on its stringer, missed out on all the deep insights furnished by the Indian side which find reflection in the headlines, establishing the mood in which the talks must incubate. So, expect plenty of mutual invective in this quest for peace.
The Mail also provides the insight that Home Minister P. Chidambaram, like Banquo’s ghost, lurked in the background, reminding the interlocutors that terror as a theme must supercede all Indo-Pak banter.
Pakistan has so much terror on its hands, both import and export quality, that it can talk on this theme eternally.
Krishna turns out to be India’s first foreign minister in Pakistan at a phase in sub-continental affairs when Indo-Pak relations are not Pakistan’s first priority.
Pakistan is neck deep in Af-Pak, overstretched in the two Waziristans, Quetta, Afghanistan, an inconsistent United States, unsure of its Taleban “assets”, living with danger of the Army’s possible Islamization, internal political instability. Against this backdrop Indo-Pak talks are not the hottest news at the moment.
Little wonder, Pakistan’s principal English language Newspapers do not lead the front pages with Krishna. Dawn has a single column headline: “Peace talks with a hawkish tinge”.
The News mentions Krishna below the fold: “Krishna brings message of peace”. Pakistan’s hawkish Daily Jung, quotes Krishna, “India to resolve all issues with Pakistan”.
When Krishna’s Pak visit will be analyzed by Indian Pundits, Pakistan itself will be riveted on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit on Monday to underpin the strategic dialogue with Pakistan.
Since Clinton will then proceed to Kabul for an International Peace Conference, Pakistani columnists will go to town on “US takes the Pak route to Afghan peace!”
The Indo-Pak track in other words, will proceed but haltingly. In this step by step deliberation lies some hope for New Delhi being able to firm up the January 6, 2004 agreement signed in Islamabad that the “territory of Pakistan” will not be used for terrorism against India.
An unstated, psychological obstruction in Indo-Pak normalcy happens to be, in absentia, the persona of Gen. Pervez Musharraf. It so happens that the most promising phase in Indo-Pak, and New Delhi-Srinagar tracks respectively was during Gen. Musharraf’s watch in Pakistan – 2002 to 2006.
The civilian leadership is averse to giving credit to Musharraf on any count. Since Manmohan Singh’s target is to arrive at the sort of understanding that was reached with Musharraf on, for instance, the LOC becoming “irrelevant”, the edifice has to be reconstructed, brick by brick, with such of the civilian leadership as exists in Islamabad.
Mind you, even on this brick by brick approach there are curbs since Gen. Ashfaq Kayani has reverted to the pre Musharraf incantation of the Pak army being primarily focused on India.
While New Delhi refocuses its foreign policy options, the track that can be given some acceleration is the one that stretches from New Delhi to Srinagar.
Season of great hope had opened up in Srinagar with a “real” election in October, 2002. The National Conference was defeated and the PDP came to power in coalition with the Congress.
Atal Behari Vajpayee’s talks with the Hurriet, his epoch making visit to Islamabad on Jan 6, 2004, Kashmir Corps Commander Lt. Gen. Vinayak Patankar’s humane approach to Kashmiris, had all created an ambience of peace.
The emergence of the UPA in May, 2004 retarded the process, not because Prime Minister Manmohan Singh applied breaks on it but because all transitions impede continuity. But Manmohan Singh steadied himself and opened Kashmiri bus routes, trans border trade, inching towards the rendering of “borders irrelevant” policy.
Meanwhile, misfortune followed Musharraf in battalions until his ouster.
Arrival of Omar Abdullah in Kashmir promised a “new dawn” which, alas, did not materialize. After dithering, New Delhi has placed Kashmir very unobtrusively under P. Chidambaram. Unfortunately, the cat leapt out of the bag inadvertently. When the Omar cabinet was “going thorough the motions” of discussing lifting of the curfew on Shab-e-meraj, Home Secretary G.K. Pillai announced in New Delhi the decision on national TV! “Bring in Governor’s rule, if you like, but please don’t insult us like this” wailed members of the Kashmir cabinet.
Also, Commissioners of all state Ministries have been “ordered” (by the Centre) to submit progress reports of respective departments by the 9th of each month.
In other words, the state administration is now on a leash without dethroning the young Chief Minister. Slowly, devolution dialogues will follow. In time, progress on the New Delhi – Srinagar track will progress in step with the calibrated peace process with Islamabad. But what kind of Islamabad? The one paralyzed by terrorism and which is having to play its cricket home series against Australia in London at Lords, even as Krishna and Pakistan Foreign Minister Qureshi, well, talk.
# # # # # # # #
Monday, July 12, 2010
Afghanistan: New Delhi Reckless at Slow Speed
Afghanistan: New Delhi Reckless at Slow Speed
Saeed Naqvi
Dated: 10.07.2010
Iran, Pakistan, Israel among others, know more or less, their respective preferred outcomes in Afghanistan. I am not so sure about the US; or New Delhi
Israeli vision, though obstructed at Teheran, does take account of Afghanistan where a few contradictions attend it. For example Jerusalem would not mind a resurgent Taleban pestering Shia Iran, its principal target these days, but Talebanism (extremism) in West Asia is its much advertised anxiety.
So, Sunni Islamic militancy plagueing Shia Iran is okay (in whispers, only) but it is intolerable in Israeli’s Arab neighbourhood. Where does Israel place Saudi Arabia in this framework? “Their Bedouin DNA enables them to survive walking on Wahabi egg shells”. Very clever.
Islamabad and Jerusalem are scaring Washington on two distinct counts. Islamabad advises Washington that American reversal in Afghanistan would be catastrophic for US prestige and influence in the region and globally. However, should the US depend on Islamabad’s deep knowledge of the Mujahedeen, Al Qaeda, Taleban and arrive at a settlement with the Taleban Islamabad knows, Afghanistan will be sufficiently tranquillized to enable President Obama to contemplate a second term with a cool head.
Israel would like Washington to be more alert about the other “Ogre”, a nuclearized Iran. Should Iran go nuclear despite sanctions, American admonitions, egged on by Israel and Europe, in that order, the US, already in decline, will have its nose rubbed in the dust before a risen China, resurgent Russia and an Arab World which will charge down to their respective basements and start assembling bombs. The Saudis, (say the Israelis) may go nuclear with Pak help.
Meanwhile, Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani and his Inter Services Intelligence Chief, Gen. Shuja Pasha, have been shuttling between Islamabad and Kabul. Traffic from Kabul is equally frequent. Likewise between Teheran and Kabul.
Time was when Peter Galbraith, supported by President Obama’s special Af-Pak envoy, Richard Holbrook had asked for President Hamid Karzai’s head on a platter alleging election fraud and worse.
Obviously, Galbraith was not aware of intense turf battles in Washington in which the State Department’s line did not prevail. Galbraith was shown the door. Holbrooke ducked into a low profile.
Sufficient attention has not been paid to the fact that the only person from George W. Bush’s team retained by Barak Obama is Defence Secretary Robert Gates. It is he who represents the “American Establishment’s” interests in Af-Pak, Iran and elsewhere.
He is particularly suited to comprehend the region because he was deputy to CIA Chief Willian Casey during the Reagan years when the Mujahideen were being trained and equipped with Stinger Missiles in Afghanistan. Also, he was around during the Iran – Contra affair – transferring Israeli arms to Iran to fight Iraq. The money thus generated was transferred to the Contras to oust the pro Soviet Sandinistas from Nicaragua.
The “high level” contact the US made during that phase was the speaker of the Iranian Majlis, Hojjetulslam Hashemi Rafsanjani, who later became President for two terms.
American pique at the outcome of recent Iranian elections is largely explained by the defeat of “their candidate”, Rafsanjani in June 2005 and Mir Hussein Mousavi (backed by Rafsanjani) in June 2009, on both occasions bringing President Ahmedinejad to power. That a tamed Rafsanjani still survives in the Expediency Council is because he knows too much.
The puzzle in all of this is this: how can the US take such a tough line on Iran at a time when it needs Iranian co-operation in stabilizing Afghanistan? Is some obscure Washington – Teheran track still functioning?
Ask Jaswant Singh, who was External Affairs Minister in November 2001 when the US invaded Afghanistan. “Iranians, more that the Russians, helped oust the Taleban from Kabul.”
Iran has lengthy borders with Afghanistan and Iraq – both flowing over with US troops. Equally strategic is Iran’s border with Balochistan, the most important supply route for US troops in Afghanistan.
Iran’s real quest is for a recognition of its status as regional power: it cites its ancient civilization, 70 million population, second and third largest gas and oil reserves respectively, its strategic location on the gulf, contiguity with South and West Asia, Central Asia, Caucasus. Iran believes its stand on Palestine gives it influence among Arab populations. Moreover it juxtaposes its “Dialogue of Civilizaitons” against Wahabi Puritanism.
All of this causes convulsions in Riyadh and Cairo. In other words a nuclear Iran, or a non nuclear Iran as a regional power, are both anathema to West Asia, Israel and the US. Surely something must give.
In the general pirouette involving Washington, Islamabad, Kabul, Teheran, Riyadh, Jerusalem, where is New Delhi? Well, New Delhi has good relations with each one of these centers except Islamabad and Teheran, the latter disrepaired in Vienna during the Indo-US nuclear deal. Leaders of each one of the countries (except Israel, ofcourse) have visited Kabul several times in recent years. On July 20, UN officials will be once again in Kabul to attend an International Peace Conference.
The last time Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Kabul was in 2005.
Who from New Delhi will attend the Kabul Conference? New Delhi, jolted out of its stupor, is now not only picking up the thread with Teheran, but actually redistributing the eggs it had once placed exclusively in the US basket.
# # # # # # # #
Saeed Naqvi
Dated: 10.07.2010
Iran, Pakistan, Israel among others, know more or less, their respective preferred outcomes in Afghanistan. I am not so sure about the US; or New Delhi
Israeli vision, though obstructed at Teheran, does take account of Afghanistan where a few contradictions attend it. For example Jerusalem would not mind a resurgent Taleban pestering Shia Iran, its principal target these days, but Talebanism (extremism) in West Asia is its much advertised anxiety.
So, Sunni Islamic militancy plagueing Shia Iran is okay (in whispers, only) but it is intolerable in Israeli’s Arab neighbourhood. Where does Israel place Saudi Arabia in this framework? “Their Bedouin DNA enables them to survive walking on Wahabi egg shells”. Very clever.
Islamabad and Jerusalem are scaring Washington on two distinct counts. Islamabad advises Washington that American reversal in Afghanistan would be catastrophic for US prestige and influence in the region and globally. However, should the US depend on Islamabad’s deep knowledge of the Mujahedeen, Al Qaeda, Taleban and arrive at a settlement with the Taleban Islamabad knows, Afghanistan will be sufficiently tranquillized to enable President Obama to contemplate a second term with a cool head.
Israel would like Washington to be more alert about the other “Ogre”, a nuclearized Iran. Should Iran go nuclear despite sanctions, American admonitions, egged on by Israel and Europe, in that order, the US, already in decline, will have its nose rubbed in the dust before a risen China, resurgent Russia and an Arab World which will charge down to their respective basements and start assembling bombs. The Saudis, (say the Israelis) may go nuclear with Pak help.
Meanwhile, Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani and his Inter Services Intelligence Chief, Gen. Shuja Pasha, have been shuttling between Islamabad and Kabul. Traffic from Kabul is equally frequent. Likewise between Teheran and Kabul.
Time was when Peter Galbraith, supported by President Obama’s special Af-Pak envoy, Richard Holbrook had asked for President Hamid Karzai’s head on a platter alleging election fraud and worse.
Obviously, Galbraith was not aware of intense turf battles in Washington in which the State Department’s line did not prevail. Galbraith was shown the door. Holbrooke ducked into a low profile.
Sufficient attention has not been paid to the fact that the only person from George W. Bush’s team retained by Barak Obama is Defence Secretary Robert Gates. It is he who represents the “American Establishment’s” interests in Af-Pak, Iran and elsewhere.
He is particularly suited to comprehend the region because he was deputy to CIA Chief Willian Casey during the Reagan years when the Mujahideen were being trained and equipped with Stinger Missiles in Afghanistan. Also, he was around during the Iran – Contra affair – transferring Israeli arms to Iran to fight Iraq. The money thus generated was transferred to the Contras to oust the pro Soviet Sandinistas from Nicaragua.
The “high level” contact the US made during that phase was the speaker of the Iranian Majlis, Hojjetulslam Hashemi Rafsanjani, who later became President for two terms.
American pique at the outcome of recent Iranian elections is largely explained by the defeat of “their candidate”, Rafsanjani in June 2005 and Mir Hussein Mousavi (backed by Rafsanjani) in June 2009, on both occasions bringing President Ahmedinejad to power. That a tamed Rafsanjani still survives in the Expediency Council is because he knows too much.
The puzzle in all of this is this: how can the US take such a tough line on Iran at a time when it needs Iranian co-operation in stabilizing Afghanistan? Is some obscure Washington – Teheran track still functioning?
Ask Jaswant Singh, who was External Affairs Minister in November 2001 when the US invaded Afghanistan. “Iranians, more that the Russians, helped oust the Taleban from Kabul.”
Iran has lengthy borders with Afghanistan and Iraq – both flowing over with US troops. Equally strategic is Iran’s border with Balochistan, the most important supply route for US troops in Afghanistan.
Iran’s real quest is for a recognition of its status as regional power: it cites its ancient civilization, 70 million population, second and third largest gas and oil reserves respectively, its strategic location on the gulf, contiguity with South and West Asia, Central Asia, Caucasus. Iran believes its stand on Palestine gives it influence among Arab populations. Moreover it juxtaposes its “Dialogue of Civilizaitons” against Wahabi Puritanism.
All of this causes convulsions in Riyadh and Cairo. In other words a nuclear Iran, or a non nuclear Iran as a regional power, are both anathema to West Asia, Israel and the US. Surely something must give.
In the general pirouette involving Washington, Islamabad, Kabul, Teheran, Riyadh, Jerusalem, where is New Delhi? Well, New Delhi has good relations with each one of these centers except Islamabad and Teheran, the latter disrepaired in Vienna during the Indo-US nuclear deal. Leaders of each one of the countries (except Israel, ofcourse) have visited Kabul several times in recent years. On July 20, UN officials will be once again in Kabul to attend an International Peace Conference.
The last time Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Kabul was in 2005.
Who from New Delhi will attend the Kabul Conference? New Delhi, jolted out of its stupor, is now not only picking up the thread with Teheran, but actually redistributing the eggs it had once placed exclusively in the US basket.
# # # # # # # #
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Omar's Failure will stick on Rahul Gandhi
Omar's Failure will stick on Rahul Gandhi
Saeed Naqvi
Dated: 03.07.2010
The unfolding tragedy in Kashmir could well be an opportunity for Rahul Gandhi to make an intervention that may bring him, nationally, into positive light.
His friends probably do not know that keeping him focused on UP circumscribes his political turf.
The reason why Rahul Gandhi inserting himself into the proceedings may be useful for Kashmir, and him politically, is because an absence of interest on his part will show him in poor light for a reason most people do not realize. Omar Abdullah being fielded in the J & K arena is being attributed to him and Omar Abdullah is playing a poor knock.
Remember his gyrations on Shopian in 2009 and now his ineffectiveness in Sopor.
Is it politically discreet to flourish the Queen’s Baton on the Dal when the mood in the valley is a lethal mixture of mourning and anger? Also, hiding behind the CRPF’s misdemeanor is not very clever. CRPF may have acted, or reacted, wrongly, but it was so palpable to anyone who visited the valley that anger, indeed rage, was simmering below the surface. The peace was deceptive and I wrote so in this space months ago.
The election results of 2009 gave Congress a signal. The unexpectedly good performance in UP, where Rahul Gandhi had pitched his tents, caused the party to coax a principle from the new situation. Rahul was emerging as the new, youthful, mass leader for the nation. All the young Congress MPs were accommodated in the cabinet.
A roar went up that Rahul too should be given a handsome slot in the cabinet. The Prime Minister and a handful of others may have sincerely considered the cabinet route as the most suitable one for Rahul’s eventual ascension.
There was another group which thought he was, being young, most suitable to rejuvenate the party.
It is a in the nature of power politics, in any society, that centres of power generate around them, in concentric circles, lobbies and coteries.
That New Delhi’s power structure, already bifurcated, was about to have a third power centre in Rahul Gandhi (and this one would be blessed with longevity), would not be in the interest of existing coteries. Not the principals, mind you, only the coteries.
That was one fear which caused some to insist for Rahul Gandhi’s induction in the Union cabinet. He would be on a leash in the cabinet system.
Since he eluded the cabinet “lasso” and set himself up as the third power point to revive the Congress, particularly in UP, it is elementary that there should be some around the other two power points who would not lose sleep if Rahul or anyone from his circle, fails.
Let me link this convoluted argument to Omar Abdullah. After the 2009 election results, it was more or less clear that, in the National Conference – Congress alliance, Farooq Abdullah would be Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir. He had himself announced it.
By this time the lesson of the UP result had been interpreted by the Youth Brigade as a vote of confidence in the younger generation.
Just as Rajesh Pilot was Farooq’s political “buddy”, so is his son Sachin, Omar’s political support. In this general Youth Wave, Farooq, under all manner of pressure, made way for the son to ascend the gaddi.
Farooq was not God’s gift to governance. Who knows, the son, bright, articulate, good looking, secular, anchored to New Delhi where his children go to school, may turn out to be the leader Kashmir had waited for.
At the outset, he had all the goodwill he required. If he succeeded, the Youth Brigade, identified with Rahul would be vindicated.
Right or wrong, the impression in Srinagr is that Rahul’s support to Omar provides him with a sense of security. “It may have gone to his head”, said a Professor in Kashmir university.
Lack of access annoys journalists and, in an age of burgeoning media, does not help inaccessible “leaders” either. Omar has acquired the image of being inaccessible among Kashmiris.
As it is the valley feels neglected when the state’s administration shifts to Jammu for six months. This sense of neglect is further accentuated when the Chief Minister spends extended weekends in New Delhi with his family.
Mind you, this Sopor violence is not going to dissolve into thin air by some magic. Sopor happens to be the epicenter of Kashmir politics.
And on July I began the Amarnath Yatra which was the focus of the storm in 2009.
Before Sopor and Amarnath amalgamate lethally, for heaven’s sake pick up those reports of the five Working Groups on Jammu and Kashmir formed by the Prime Minister in 2006-07. According to M. Rasgotra, former Foreign Secretary, Head of the Working Group on strengthening Relations Across the Line of Control, “90 per cent of the recommendations can be unilaterally implemented.” The head of one such working group was Hamid Ansari, currently Vice President of India.
Also, please engage Omar in a dialogue on a feasible devolution package.
This is one of the many ways to soften the atmosphere.
The other suggestion is that Omar, young and inexperienced, needs an advisory group. Omar will listen if Rahul, in no official capacity, just as a friend in the same peer group, were to suggest an Advisory Council for Kashmir.
Remember, Omar’s failure will reflect on Rahul and the Youth Surge associated with him.
# # # # # #
Saeed Naqvi
Dated: 03.07.2010
The unfolding tragedy in Kashmir could well be an opportunity for Rahul Gandhi to make an intervention that may bring him, nationally, into positive light.
His friends probably do not know that keeping him focused on UP circumscribes his political turf.
The reason why Rahul Gandhi inserting himself into the proceedings may be useful for Kashmir, and him politically, is because an absence of interest on his part will show him in poor light for a reason most people do not realize. Omar Abdullah being fielded in the J & K arena is being attributed to him and Omar Abdullah is playing a poor knock.
Remember his gyrations on Shopian in 2009 and now his ineffectiveness in Sopor.
Is it politically discreet to flourish the Queen’s Baton on the Dal when the mood in the valley is a lethal mixture of mourning and anger? Also, hiding behind the CRPF’s misdemeanor is not very clever. CRPF may have acted, or reacted, wrongly, but it was so palpable to anyone who visited the valley that anger, indeed rage, was simmering below the surface. The peace was deceptive and I wrote so in this space months ago.
The election results of 2009 gave Congress a signal. The unexpectedly good performance in UP, where Rahul Gandhi had pitched his tents, caused the party to coax a principle from the new situation. Rahul was emerging as the new, youthful, mass leader for the nation. All the young Congress MPs were accommodated in the cabinet.
A roar went up that Rahul too should be given a handsome slot in the cabinet. The Prime Minister and a handful of others may have sincerely considered the cabinet route as the most suitable one for Rahul’s eventual ascension.
There was another group which thought he was, being young, most suitable to rejuvenate the party.
It is a in the nature of power politics, in any society, that centres of power generate around them, in concentric circles, lobbies and coteries.
That New Delhi’s power structure, already bifurcated, was about to have a third power centre in Rahul Gandhi (and this one would be blessed with longevity), would not be in the interest of existing coteries. Not the principals, mind you, only the coteries.
That was one fear which caused some to insist for Rahul Gandhi’s induction in the Union cabinet. He would be on a leash in the cabinet system.
Since he eluded the cabinet “lasso” and set himself up as the third power point to revive the Congress, particularly in UP, it is elementary that there should be some around the other two power points who would not lose sleep if Rahul or anyone from his circle, fails.
Let me link this convoluted argument to Omar Abdullah. After the 2009 election results, it was more or less clear that, in the National Conference – Congress alliance, Farooq Abdullah would be Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir. He had himself announced it.
By this time the lesson of the UP result had been interpreted by the Youth Brigade as a vote of confidence in the younger generation.
Just as Rajesh Pilot was Farooq’s political “buddy”, so is his son Sachin, Omar’s political support. In this general Youth Wave, Farooq, under all manner of pressure, made way for the son to ascend the gaddi.
Farooq was not God’s gift to governance. Who knows, the son, bright, articulate, good looking, secular, anchored to New Delhi where his children go to school, may turn out to be the leader Kashmir had waited for.
At the outset, he had all the goodwill he required. If he succeeded, the Youth Brigade, identified with Rahul would be vindicated.
Right or wrong, the impression in Srinagr is that Rahul’s support to Omar provides him with a sense of security. “It may have gone to his head”, said a Professor in Kashmir university.
Lack of access annoys journalists and, in an age of burgeoning media, does not help inaccessible “leaders” either. Omar has acquired the image of being inaccessible among Kashmiris.
As it is the valley feels neglected when the state’s administration shifts to Jammu for six months. This sense of neglect is further accentuated when the Chief Minister spends extended weekends in New Delhi with his family.
Mind you, this Sopor violence is not going to dissolve into thin air by some magic. Sopor happens to be the epicenter of Kashmir politics.
And on July I began the Amarnath Yatra which was the focus of the storm in 2009.
Before Sopor and Amarnath amalgamate lethally, for heaven’s sake pick up those reports of the five Working Groups on Jammu and Kashmir formed by the Prime Minister in 2006-07. According to M. Rasgotra, former Foreign Secretary, Head of the Working Group on strengthening Relations Across the Line of Control, “90 per cent of the recommendations can be unilaterally implemented.” The head of one such working group was Hamid Ansari, currently Vice President of India.
Also, please engage Omar in a dialogue on a feasible devolution package.
This is one of the many ways to soften the atmosphere.
The other suggestion is that Omar, young and inexperienced, needs an advisory group. Omar will listen if Rahul, in no official capacity, just as a friend in the same peer group, were to suggest an Advisory Council for Kashmir.
Remember, Omar’s failure will reflect on Rahul and the Youth Surge associated with him.
# # # # # #
Monday, June 28, 2010
Electronic Voting Machines: Tamperable?
Electronic Voting Machines: Tamperable?
Saeed Naqvi
Dated: 26.06.2010
On July 31, S. Yaqoob Quraishi will take over as the Chief Election Commissioner.
Slots in diplomacy and governorships are already being identified as the retiring chief election commissioner Navin Chawla’s parking lots. But at the Election Commission Chawla has set for himself a busy agenda almost until the end of his term.
For example, on July 27 elections will be held in the 12 assembly seats which had fallen vacant after the Telangana Rashtra Samithi members resigned from the House agitating for a separate Telangana.
This apparently simple election is not without its complications. For instance, elections in two constituencies cannot be held because of a Supreme Court stay. Reason? Two of the candidates claimed they had won the elections. According to a SC judgment if a petitioner challenges election results, a re-election is possible only after the High Court clears the issue.
True to form, TRS leader K. Chandrasekhar Rao claims the elections to these two seats are being held up because of pressure from the Congress.
Quraishi’s first challenge will be elections to the Bihar Assembly due in October-November. Who knows, Tamil Nadu too may call for early elections if K. Karunanidhi is persuaded that, in addition to other calculations, the International Tamil Jamboree has moved Tamil voters in his favour.
A simmering controversy Quraishi will have to contend with is a sustained, low level, campaign by interested parties on the reliability (or otherwise) of the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs).
Allegation of booth capturing and poll rigging, particularly in states like Bihar had brought into disrepute the old paper ballot.
These allegations made is essential for the Election Commission to explore new technologies. As always in modern Indian political history, Kerala first showed the way when EVMs were tried in 50 polling elections in a constituency in Kerala in 1982.
Subsequently Representation of People Act of 1951 was amended, permitting EVMs since 1989 but not before an Expert Committee, under Prof. P. V. Indiresan was constituted to evaluate these machines.
The General Elections of 2004 and 2009 were conducted entirely on EVMs. Following some critical observations, the Expert Committee suggested some improvements in the machines. These improvements were introduced in 2006.
The controversy has acquired some momentum because many European countries have turned their backs on EVMs i.e. they employed EVMs and then discontinued the practice in favour of good old paper ballots.
Recently, electronic voting has been banned in Ireland, Holland and Germany. Italy and France are not using them either. In the US, systems change from state to state.
In Germany the Supreme Court found EVMs violative of the election law which demands absolute transparency – The objection being that what happens inside a “chip” or a “machine” is not visible to the naked eye.
The lobby placing a question mark on EVMs is citing the European experience. Also, since Bharat Electronics (Ministry of Defence) and the Electronic Corporation of India Ltd. (Dept. of Atomic Energy) are the only manufacturers of EVMs, a case is being made out that official agencies can be persuaded to favour the government in power.
It is being argued that if the machines could leave “paper trail” to be handed to the voter, the system will become beyond reproach. After all, millions of credit card transactions around the world would not be possible without both, electronic registration of the transaction and a paper receipt for the customer.
The counter argument is that in a country where votes are bought and sold, a receipt for having cast a vote will be that much easier to encash.
That is fine, but remember paper also gets jammed obstructing rotation of the paper roll. One such obstruction will hold up the election in a given constituency. Many such hold ups can disrupt the election schedule.
The leadership to those opposing EVMs are politicians like Chandrababu Naidu and Subramanyam Swamy. Also, individuals like former Chief secretary of Delhi, Omesh Sehgal have approached the Election Commission with complaints against EVMs on the grounds that they were “tamperable”.
Psephologist G.V. Narasimha Rao, having gone woefully wrong in his recent electoral predictions, has joined the anti EVM bandwagon.
Another lobby opposing EVMs are undiluted commercial interests.
In 1980, one Mohammad Haneefa of Tamil Nadu approached the Election Commission with an Electronic Voting Machine he had invented. He filed a writ petition before the Madras High Court when the Election Commission seemed to favour Public sector companies. Even though the High Court dismissed the petition, he persisted with this communications with the EC challenging the efficacy of the Public sector manufactured EVMs.
Ultimately in 2007 the EC invited him to make a presentation before the Chief election Officer in Bangalore to establish flaws in the EVMs in use. According to the Election Commission sources “he failed to demonstrate any tamperability”.
After the 2009 elections, Subramaniyam Swami, G.V.L. Narsimha Rao, and one Hari Prasad of Net India (a would be electronic machine manufacturer) asked the Election Commission to let them open an EVM. They were given the permission. When they started taking measurements and noting details of EVM components, the Election Commission stopped them. Why? They may use the data for “reverse engineering”. Strange reason! Quraishi will have to handle the controversy.
# # # # # #
Saeed Naqvi
Dated: 26.06.2010
On July 31, S. Yaqoob Quraishi will take over as the Chief Election Commissioner.
Slots in diplomacy and governorships are already being identified as the retiring chief election commissioner Navin Chawla’s parking lots. But at the Election Commission Chawla has set for himself a busy agenda almost until the end of his term.
For example, on July 27 elections will be held in the 12 assembly seats which had fallen vacant after the Telangana Rashtra Samithi members resigned from the House agitating for a separate Telangana.
This apparently simple election is not without its complications. For instance, elections in two constituencies cannot be held because of a Supreme Court stay. Reason? Two of the candidates claimed they had won the elections. According to a SC judgment if a petitioner challenges election results, a re-election is possible only after the High Court clears the issue.
True to form, TRS leader K. Chandrasekhar Rao claims the elections to these two seats are being held up because of pressure from the Congress.
Quraishi’s first challenge will be elections to the Bihar Assembly due in October-November. Who knows, Tamil Nadu too may call for early elections if K. Karunanidhi is persuaded that, in addition to other calculations, the International Tamil Jamboree has moved Tamil voters in his favour.
A simmering controversy Quraishi will have to contend with is a sustained, low level, campaign by interested parties on the reliability (or otherwise) of the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs).
Allegation of booth capturing and poll rigging, particularly in states like Bihar had brought into disrepute the old paper ballot.
These allegations made is essential for the Election Commission to explore new technologies. As always in modern Indian political history, Kerala first showed the way when EVMs were tried in 50 polling elections in a constituency in Kerala in 1982.
Subsequently Representation of People Act of 1951 was amended, permitting EVMs since 1989 but not before an Expert Committee, under Prof. P. V. Indiresan was constituted to evaluate these machines.
The General Elections of 2004 and 2009 were conducted entirely on EVMs. Following some critical observations, the Expert Committee suggested some improvements in the machines. These improvements were introduced in 2006.
The controversy has acquired some momentum because many European countries have turned their backs on EVMs i.e. they employed EVMs and then discontinued the practice in favour of good old paper ballots.
Recently, electronic voting has been banned in Ireland, Holland and Germany. Italy and France are not using them either. In the US, systems change from state to state.
In Germany the Supreme Court found EVMs violative of the election law which demands absolute transparency – The objection being that what happens inside a “chip” or a “machine” is not visible to the naked eye.
The lobby placing a question mark on EVMs is citing the European experience. Also, since Bharat Electronics (Ministry of Defence) and the Electronic Corporation of India Ltd. (Dept. of Atomic Energy) are the only manufacturers of EVMs, a case is being made out that official agencies can be persuaded to favour the government in power.
It is being argued that if the machines could leave “paper trail” to be handed to the voter, the system will become beyond reproach. After all, millions of credit card transactions around the world would not be possible without both, electronic registration of the transaction and a paper receipt for the customer.
The counter argument is that in a country where votes are bought and sold, a receipt for having cast a vote will be that much easier to encash.
That is fine, but remember paper also gets jammed obstructing rotation of the paper roll. One such obstruction will hold up the election in a given constituency. Many such hold ups can disrupt the election schedule.
The leadership to those opposing EVMs are politicians like Chandrababu Naidu and Subramanyam Swamy. Also, individuals like former Chief secretary of Delhi, Omesh Sehgal have approached the Election Commission with complaints against EVMs on the grounds that they were “tamperable”.
Psephologist G.V. Narasimha Rao, having gone woefully wrong in his recent electoral predictions, has joined the anti EVM bandwagon.
Another lobby opposing EVMs are undiluted commercial interests.
In 1980, one Mohammad Haneefa of Tamil Nadu approached the Election Commission with an Electronic Voting Machine he had invented. He filed a writ petition before the Madras High Court when the Election Commission seemed to favour Public sector companies. Even though the High Court dismissed the petition, he persisted with this communications with the EC challenging the efficacy of the Public sector manufactured EVMs.
Ultimately in 2007 the EC invited him to make a presentation before the Chief election Officer in Bangalore to establish flaws in the EVMs in use. According to the Election Commission sources “he failed to demonstrate any tamperability”.
After the 2009 elections, Subramaniyam Swami, G.V.L. Narsimha Rao, and one Hari Prasad of Net India (a would be electronic machine manufacturer) asked the Election Commission to let them open an EVM. They were given the permission. When they started taking measurements and noting details of EVM components, the Election Commission stopped them. Why? They may use the data for “reverse engineering”. Strange reason! Quraishi will have to handle the controversy.
# # # # # #
Monday, June 21, 2010
Osh: The Indian Links
Osh: The Indian Links
Saeed Naqvi
Dated: 19.06.2010
There is a medieval and a contemporary Indian link with Osh, the city in the eye of the storm in Southern Kyrgyzstan, bordering Uzbekistan. In fact when Almaty was the capital of Kazakhastan, Osh, in the Farghana Valley, was almost in the middle of an uneven circle linking Almaty, Bishkek, Tashkent, Dushambe capitals of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikstan – with the Xinxiang region of China in Kyrgyz contiguity.
US and NATO in Afghanistan; Russians, recent masters of the Central Asian region: place all these factors side by side to obtain the big picture of which the brutal Kyrgyz – Uzbek killings in Osh and nearby Jalalabad are only a part.
At this point revert to India’s medieval links with Osh. Residents of Mehrauli next to the Qutub Minar should be particularly interested.
The shrine of Khwaja Qutubuddin Bakhtiar Kaki, the renowned Sufi saint of the Chishti order, happens to be in Mehrauli. He was the disciple of Hazrat Moinuddin Chishti of Ajmer who, during his journey through Osh, embraced him as his spiritual heir. Qutubuddin Bakhtiar Kaki’s disciple was Hazrat Nizamuddin Aulia.
Since the saint set up his abode in Mehrauli during the reigns of Qutub-ud-din Aibak and Iltutmish, and both were his devotees, it can be speculated that the Qutub Minar was named after the saint rather than the slave king who happened to be his devotee. Iltutmish built the stepped well (baoli) for him; Sher Shah Suri, the gate.
Later Moghuls visited the shrine. The last Moghul Emperor Bahadur Shah Zafar actually identified an area next to the Dargah as his final resting place.
But after the uprising of 1857, he was shipped to Yangon where he died in the garage of a junior British officer.
“Kitna hai badnaseeb zafar
dafn ke liye.
Do guz zameen bhi na
Mili kooy-e-yaar mein!”
(How unfortunate O’Zafar. He could not find two-yards of land for burial in the street of his beloved!) the “beloved” is the verse in the spiritual saint, Qutubuddin Bakhtiar Kaki of Osh.
Osh’s second historical link with India is the first Moghul Emperor, Zahir-ud-din Babur made notorious by a mosque he never built. Babur was born in Andijan, 20 kms away from Osh. Osh, being in Farghana, was part of Babur’s territory; he even lived at Osh for brief spells. For long periods Osh remained part of territories linked to Uzbekistan. This is not a terribly convenient piece of history for the young Kyrgyz nation!
Uzbeks, who have been at the receiving end of the current violence, are ethnically or linguistically, not very different from the Kyrgyz. The reason why the Kyrgyz can be easily incited to violence is because the Uzbeks, by their economic prosperity (for historical reasons) are the most visible objects of jealousy and envy.
Contemporary Indian link with Osh is what Jyoti Pandey, Indian Ambassador at Bishkek (Capital of Kyrgyzstan) is currently handling with great dexterity.
It defies belief, but over a 100 Indian students are studying medicine at the Health Institute in obscure Osh. When violence erupted, these trapped Indians were ferried by chartered flights from Osh (a few from Jalalabad too) to Bishkek.
These evacuees from Osh then laid siege to the Indian Embassy demanding further passage to India.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, a sizeable Indian Diaspora dispersed and settled in its various parts, stretching from Central Asia to Central Europe.
Considerable networking between Indian communists (their families) and their counterparts in Comintern countries during the Soviet era did not dissolve overnight. Ex bureaucrats with experience of Communist countries and the progeny of Indian Communists found lucrative slots in a whole chain of economic ties between these countries and India, including in arms sales.
Indian students in large numbers studied in Patrice Lumunba University, other technical institutes and Medical colleges Moscow had opened in far-flung parts of the Soviet Union, including Kyrgyzstan. This explains why Indian students, tucked away in the obscurity of Osh, have suddenly surfaced as refugees from local violence.
According to figures with the MEA, there are 6000 Indians in Russia, including 1,000 businessmen, 2000 in Ukraine, 400 in Azerbaijan, 200 in Belarus and 200 in Georgia and so on.
This journalist interviewed the first President of independent Kyrgyzstan, Askar Akaev, a bit of a “soft”, reflective philosopher surrounded by Central Asian leaders, trained in the Soviet system, hard as nails. He fell victim to the Tulip revolution in 2005, bringing Kurmanbek Bakiev as a “pro American” President. He was ousted by pro Russian interim government in April. The rest is current news.
I have already indicated the strategic location of the country which, in the context of Afghan campaign, is priceless real estate for the US which maintains the controversial Manas base in the country. This provides the cash strapped nation with much needed money. Russians too have the Kant base north of Bishkek.
Neither the US nor Russia wish to get directly embroiled for their own specific reasons.
Sonia Gandhi will remember her visit to Bishkek in 1985 when it was known by its Soviet name – Frunze, named after the military officer who was one of the architects of the Red Army.
Gorbachev and Rajiv Gandhi had both come to power in their respective countries within a space of months. During his first visit to Moscow as Prime Minister, Ambassador Nurul Hasan added Frunze to the cities the Prime Minister should visit because of its strategic importance vis-à-vis China.
On display for the visitor’s entertainment was Kyrgyz horsemanship. A Kyrgyz girl would gallop away, chased by scores of men on their stallions. The fastest had the right to kiss the girl.
Oh! How Rajiv slapped his sides and applauded every kiss, on the gallop!
# # # # # # # #
Saeed Naqvi
Dated: 19.06.2010
There is a medieval and a contemporary Indian link with Osh, the city in the eye of the storm in Southern Kyrgyzstan, bordering Uzbekistan. In fact when Almaty was the capital of Kazakhastan, Osh, in the Farghana Valley, was almost in the middle of an uneven circle linking Almaty, Bishkek, Tashkent, Dushambe capitals of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikstan – with the Xinxiang region of China in Kyrgyz contiguity.
US and NATO in Afghanistan; Russians, recent masters of the Central Asian region: place all these factors side by side to obtain the big picture of which the brutal Kyrgyz – Uzbek killings in Osh and nearby Jalalabad are only a part.
At this point revert to India’s medieval links with Osh. Residents of Mehrauli next to the Qutub Minar should be particularly interested.
The shrine of Khwaja Qutubuddin Bakhtiar Kaki, the renowned Sufi saint of the Chishti order, happens to be in Mehrauli. He was the disciple of Hazrat Moinuddin Chishti of Ajmer who, during his journey through Osh, embraced him as his spiritual heir. Qutubuddin Bakhtiar Kaki’s disciple was Hazrat Nizamuddin Aulia.
Since the saint set up his abode in Mehrauli during the reigns of Qutub-ud-din Aibak and Iltutmish, and both were his devotees, it can be speculated that the Qutub Minar was named after the saint rather than the slave king who happened to be his devotee. Iltutmish built the stepped well (baoli) for him; Sher Shah Suri, the gate.
Later Moghuls visited the shrine. The last Moghul Emperor Bahadur Shah Zafar actually identified an area next to the Dargah as his final resting place.
But after the uprising of 1857, he was shipped to Yangon where he died in the garage of a junior British officer.
“Kitna hai badnaseeb zafar
dafn ke liye.
Do guz zameen bhi na
Mili kooy-e-yaar mein!”
(How unfortunate O’Zafar. He could not find two-yards of land for burial in the street of his beloved!) the “beloved” is the verse in the spiritual saint, Qutubuddin Bakhtiar Kaki of Osh.
Osh’s second historical link with India is the first Moghul Emperor, Zahir-ud-din Babur made notorious by a mosque he never built. Babur was born in Andijan, 20 kms away from Osh. Osh, being in Farghana, was part of Babur’s territory; he even lived at Osh for brief spells. For long periods Osh remained part of territories linked to Uzbekistan. This is not a terribly convenient piece of history for the young Kyrgyz nation!
Uzbeks, who have been at the receiving end of the current violence, are ethnically or linguistically, not very different from the Kyrgyz. The reason why the Kyrgyz can be easily incited to violence is because the Uzbeks, by their economic prosperity (for historical reasons) are the most visible objects of jealousy and envy.
Contemporary Indian link with Osh is what Jyoti Pandey, Indian Ambassador at Bishkek (Capital of Kyrgyzstan) is currently handling with great dexterity.
It defies belief, but over a 100 Indian students are studying medicine at the Health Institute in obscure Osh. When violence erupted, these trapped Indians were ferried by chartered flights from Osh (a few from Jalalabad too) to Bishkek.
These evacuees from Osh then laid siege to the Indian Embassy demanding further passage to India.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, a sizeable Indian Diaspora dispersed and settled in its various parts, stretching from Central Asia to Central Europe.
Considerable networking between Indian communists (their families) and their counterparts in Comintern countries during the Soviet era did not dissolve overnight. Ex bureaucrats with experience of Communist countries and the progeny of Indian Communists found lucrative slots in a whole chain of economic ties between these countries and India, including in arms sales.
Indian students in large numbers studied in Patrice Lumunba University, other technical institutes and Medical colleges Moscow had opened in far-flung parts of the Soviet Union, including Kyrgyzstan. This explains why Indian students, tucked away in the obscurity of Osh, have suddenly surfaced as refugees from local violence.
According to figures with the MEA, there are 6000 Indians in Russia, including 1,000 businessmen, 2000 in Ukraine, 400 in Azerbaijan, 200 in Belarus and 200 in Georgia and so on.
This journalist interviewed the first President of independent Kyrgyzstan, Askar Akaev, a bit of a “soft”, reflective philosopher surrounded by Central Asian leaders, trained in the Soviet system, hard as nails. He fell victim to the Tulip revolution in 2005, bringing Kurmanbek Bakiev as a “pro American” President. He was ousted by pro Russian interim government in April. The rest is current news.
I have already indicated the strategic location of the country which, in the context of Afghan campaign, is priceless real estate for the US which maintains the controversial Manas base in the country. This provides the cash strapped nation with much needed money. Russians too have the Kant base north of Bishkek.
Neither the US nor Russia wish to get directly embroiled for their own specific reasons.
Sonia Gandhi will remember her visit to Bishkek in 1985 when it was known by its Soviet name – Frunze, named after the military officer who was one of the architects of the Red Army.
Gorbachev and Rajiv Gandhi had both come to power in their respective countries within a space of months. During his first visit to Moscow as Prime Minister, Ambassador Nurul Hasan added Frunze to the cities the Prime Minister should visit because of its strategic importance vis-à-vis China.
On display for the visitor’s entertainment was Kyrgyz horsemanship. A Kyrgyz girl would gallop away, chased by scores of men on their stallions. The fastest had the right to kiss the girl.
Oh! How Rajiv slapped his sides and applauded every kiss, on the gallop!
# # # # # # # #
Monday, June 14, 2010
Discreet Charm of the Unconventional
Discreet Charm of the Unconventional
Saeed Naqvi
Dated: 12.06.2010
Meeting Anolie Ela Menon, the brilliant painter, reminded me of the numerous off-beat characters who were once part of my life.
But, Anjolie first: The conversation glides past Genet and Ionesco. Inevitably, Paris looms large. “Oh! How I kick myself for not drinking all that marvellous French wine those days”.
Next moment she is cradling a bleating baby goat just outside the Nizamuddin shrine with the expert ease of goatherds. In fact it is impossible to arrest Anjolie Ela Menon in one defining phrase.
In Delhi’s art circles one meets all sorts of people but there are some one would like to know more. Anjolie is distinctly in the latter category, always fluent, unaffected with those candid, sharp eyes.
But my image of her, for reasons unknown, was one of snooty cosmopolitanism until a TV interview took me to her studio located in the most cavernous by lanes which zig zag their way to the shrine of Hazrat Nizamuddin Aulia. “Ofcourse the spirit of Sufism influences me greatly.” Then after a pause “I don’t believe in religion in the conventional way”.
When she hears of famous Qawwals singing at the shrine, she does turn up for attendance clapping and swaying. How do you square this with her passion for jazz?
Just when you begin to lazily notice in her a touch of restrained bohemianism, she take you by surprise all over again.
After studying art in Paris, galavanting around the world with friends, escaping Francis Newton Souza’s advances, “I returned to marry my childhood love”, distinguished Naval officer, Raja Menon “the most well read man I know”.
The bleating goat Anjolie is playing with in the torrid sun by the side of Nizamuddin’s largest Madarsa is no artistic affectation. Walk into her studio and the nudes, the Russian priest, figures in oil are all interspersed with people carrying a goat or leading one. There is this inexplicable interest in the bleating herd.
Since Anjolie places Hussain at the lofty, iconic height as one of her early influences, one wonders if Hussain’s earliest studio in Jama Masjid’s Naaz hotel conditioned the choice of her studio. But this suggestion of imitativeness would be unfair. It would not do justice to this creative free spirit who straddles several worlds.
As I have said at the outset, she triggers old memories which ferret out other unconventional characters in such short supply these days. Anjolie is a success story; others are not. But they share one thing: they are off the beaten track. In my formative years, there were two westbound streams. One lot, creatures of civil lines and the cantonments (other than the princes) sought admission in Oxford or Cambridge. The more unconventional went not to England but to Hampstead to mingle with struggling writers, poets, playwrights, painters, politicians and professional dilettantes.
Long years ago, Yen for the off-beat led me to the high decibel invective which passed for intellectual banter in Hampstead’s populous pubs. Among the loudest was a short man with a goatie beard ranting for attention. This was my friend Sashti Brata. He was a writer of exceptional talent but short on themes.
His search for a place in the sun manifested itself in ways that constantly found him on the wrong side of the law. One of his irrepressible desires was to have a London street named after him. To realize this dream, he had carved in brass, about six inches tall, the following legend: BRATA’s CORNER. Every night this legend was nailed on the wall behind his house on Savernake Road.
The phrase “every night” in this narrative has poignant relevance. Because every morning, after having drunk a carafe of black coffee and smoked nearly a box of cigarettes, when Brata clothed himself to go behind the house to examine his immortality attached to the wall, he discovered that the Bobby on the beat had pulled out the brass letters, nail by nail. Sisyphus like, Sasthi would embark on the project again, touched not the slightest by intimations of mortality the next morning.
My hometown, Lucknow, was ofcourse, God’s own nursery for off beat people, stone broke but laughing. If you were prosperous you had to pretend to be otherwise to find entrē. Lucknow had taken its cue from classical Brahminism: intellectual life was anti wealth. But Lucknow was a city of Nawabs, you might ask. Yes, but the Nawabs themselves were more broke than most. As I have said elsewhere Lucknow’s decline began in 1856 when Wajid Ali Shah was transported to Matia Burj near Calcutta.
Among our dearest friends was one Safdar, a wit, amateur poet, racouteur who talked incessantly of the rising cost of living because his monthly budget of Rs.20 (twenty) had been exhausted ten days before the month’s end!
You had to book a table for a meal with Safdar weeks in advance. He was in such demand for his scintillating company. The most succinct observation on Safdar came from my friend Vinod Mehta, editor of Outlook. “The fellow doesn’t know where his next meal is coming from; all he knows is it will be a terrific one.”
# # # # # #
Saeed Naqvi
Dated: 12.06.2010
Meeting Anolie Ela Menon, the brilliant painter, reminded me of the numerous off-beat characters who were once part of my life.
But, Anjolie first: The conversation glides past Genet and Ionesco. Inevitably, Paris looms large. “Oh! How I kick myself for not drinking all that marvellous French wine those days”.
Next moment she is cradling a bleating baby goat just outside the Nizamuddin shrine with the expert ease of goatherds. In fact it is impossible to arrest Anjolie Ela Menon in one defining phrase.
In Delhi’s art circles one meets all sorts of people but there are some one would like to know more. Anjolie is distinctly in the latter category, always fluent, unaffected with those candid, sharp eyes.
But my image of her, for reasons unknown, was one of snooty cosmopolitanism until a TV interview took me to her studio located in the most cavernous by lanes which zig zag their way to the shrine of Hazrat Nizamuddin Aulia. “Ofcourse the spirit of Sufism influences me greatly.” Then after a pause “I don’t believe in religion in the conventional way”.
When she hears of famous Qawwals singing at the shrine, she does turn up for attendance clapping and swaying. How do you square this with her passion for jazz?
Just when you begin to lazily notice in her a touch of restrained bohemianism, she take you by surprise all over again.
After studying art in Paris, galavanting around the world with friends, escaping Francis Newton Souza’s advances, “I returned to marry my childhood love”, distinguished Naval officer, Raja Menon “the most well read man I know”.
The bleating goat Anjolie is playing with in the torrid sun by the side of Nizamuddin’s largest Madarsa is no artistic affectation. Walk into her studio and the nudes, the Russian priest, figures in oil are all interspersed with people carrying a goat or leading one. There is this inexplicable interest in the bleating herd.
Since Anjolie places Hussain at the lofty, iconic height as one of her early influences, one wonders if Hussain’s earliest studio in Jama Masjid’s Naaz hotel conditioned the choice of her studio. But this suggestion of imitativeness would be unfair. It would not do justice to this creative free spirit who straddles several worlds.
As I have said at the outset, she triggers old memories which ferret out other unconventional characters in such short supply these days. Anjolie is a success story; others are not. But they share one thing: they are off the beaten track. In my formative years, there were two westbound streams. One lot, creatures of civil lines and the cantonments (other than the princes) sought admission in Oxford or Cambridge. The more unconventional went not to England but to Hampstead to mingle with struggling writers, poets, playwrights, painters, politicians and professional dilettantes.
Long years ago, Yen for the off-beat led me to the high decibel invective which passed for intellectual banter in Hampstead’s populous pubs. Among the loudest was a short man with a goatie beard ranting for attention. This was my friend Sashti Brata. He was a writer of exceptional talent but short on themes.
His search for a place in the sun manifested itself in ways that constantly found him on the wrong side of the law. One of his irrepressible desires was to have a London street named after him. To realize this dream, he had carved in brass, about six inches tall, the following legend: BRATA’s CORNER. Every night this legend was nailed on the wall behind his house on Savernake Road.
The phrase “every night” in this narrative has poignant relevance. Because every morning, after having drunk a carafe of black coffee and smoked nearly a box of cigarettes, when Brata clothed himself to go behind the house to examine his immortality attached to the wall, he discovered that the Bobby on the beat had pulled out the brass letters, nail by nail. Sisyphus like, Sasthi would embark on the project again, touched not the slightest by intimations of mortality the next morning.
My hometown, Lucknow, was ofcourse, God’s own nursery for off beat people, stone broke but laughing. If you were prosperous you had to pretend to be otherwise to find entrē. Lucknow had taken its cue from classical Brahminism: intellectual life was anti wealth. But Lucknow was a city of Nawabs, you might ask. Yes, but the Nawabs themselves were more broke than most. As I have said elsewhere Lucknow’s decline began in 1856 when Wajid Ali Shah was transported to Matia Burj near Calcutta.
Among our dearest friends was one Safdar, a wit, amateur poet, racouteur who talked incessantly of the rising cost of living because his monthly budget of Rs.20 (twenty) had been exhausted ten days before the month’s end!
You had to book a table for a meal with Safdar weeks in advance. He was in such demand for his scintillating company. The most succinct observation on Safdar came from my friend Vinod Mehta, editor of Outlook. “The fellow doesn’t know where his next meal is coming from; all he knows is it will be a terrific one.”
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