Israel
and Saudi Arabia In A Jam In Gaza
Saeed Naqvi
To understand the collective Arab panic
over the weekend in Cairo on Gaza ceasefire, an overview is required. Ever
since King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia came out of convalescence from Europe in
February 2011 to see the first two casualties of the Arab Spring – Hosni
Mubarak and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali – his heart sank.
Logically, next to fall would be
Monarchies and Emirates – Saudi, Jordan, Qatar, Morocco, Bahrain, the GCC in
general. “Never!” screamed Abdullah. Dmitry Medvedev in the Kremlin and Amr
Moussa in the Arab League provided an enabling provision in Security Council
Resolution 1973. First the Europeans – remember British Intelligence men in
dark suits arrested in Libya raising a storm in the House of Commons – and then
the Americans got involved. Well, Qaddafi’s ouster has led to the current state
of affairs in Libya.
Began the destruction of Syria, another efficient
secular dictatorship with areas of civility and gracious living. Qatar and
Turkey were alongside Saudi Arabia in this project of regime change. A clever
psychological moment was chosen to lure Turkish Prime Minister, Tayyip Erdogan
into the trap. This is his last term as Prime Minister. In popularity he is
already ahead of Kemal Ataturk. Here is his chance to play a pan Arab role by,
to begin with, facilitating Assad’s ouster from neighbouring Syria.
Erdogan took off his secular clothes
(mandated by the Kemalist constitution), slipped into his Muslim Brotherhood garb
and turned up in Tripoli, Cairo joining congregational prayers with such
frequency that the Saudis panicked. The idea was to dethrone Assad, not
strengthen the Brothers whom Saudis fear more than even the Shias eversince
they laid siege to the Grand Mosque in Mecca in November 1979, soon after the
Ayatullahs came to power in Iran.
On the Syrian operation, Qatar too was
mobilized by the Saudis for two reasons: Riyadh was keen to compose traditional
differences with Qatar so that regional monarchies could provide a united
front. Secondly, the credibility of Western mainstream media was being
questioned. Qatar’s Al Jazeera was therefore required. But as soon as Qatar
started talking to the Taleban in Afghanistan and Hamas in Gaza, the Saudis
panicked once again. Qatar, with its Muslim Brotherhood affiliation, had to be
pushed out of the equation. Al Jazeera’s support was concurrently lost.
The Saudis then bankrolled Egypt’s Abdel
Fattah el-Sisi to oust Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood and become President.
In the summer of 2014 the line-up in
West Asia was as follows:
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Morocco, Bahrain
and Emirates, fiercely opposed to the Brothers. Israel is most comfortable with
this grouping, now more than ever. Egypt has coordinated with the Israelis in
keeping the Refah crossing closed for Gazans unless Israel winks.
This has inspired Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu to float an alliance of the countries listed above. Even in
normal times, an Israeli overture towards an Arab regime shows diminishing
returns among the population. After the Israeli bombing of Gaza,
comprehensively covered on the social media, such an overture would greatly accentuate
popular anger against their own regimes.
Should the ceasefire fail and bombing of
Gaza resume, regimes whose support Israel seeks may not be able to withstand
popular unrest at the plight of Gazans, every detail available on the social
media.
Consider the alternative lineup,
Hezbullah, Syria, Iraq are all a huge moral support for Hamas. But at the
moment they are overdrawn either in Syria or against ISIS in Iraq. Turkey and
Qatar, along with their Muslim Brotherhood affiliation, are openly supporting
Hamas. Their regional influence has not been overlooked: Secretary of State
John Kerry invites them for a meeting in Paris to consider a way out in Gaza.
Either the Gaza ceasefire will breakdown
or the Americans will have to prevail on Saudi Arabia and Egypt to accommodate Qatar
and Turkey, directly or indirectly in discussing Gaza peace in Cairo.
Qatar meanwhile has set the cat among
the pigeons by announcing that Bahrain’s opposition members – which means
majority of Shias – can seek Qatari citizenship.
The ISIS, running wild across Syria and
Iraq, also has a Muslim Brotherhood link. Two days ago their blackshirt troops
moved into the enclave of Arsal in Lebanon, abutting Syria. Immediately the
Saudis turned up in Beirut with $ one billion dollars to enable the Lebanese
army contain the ISIS.
To placate Qatar, President Obama
presses Sisi to release three Al Jazeera journalists in Egyptian prison for
having supported the Muslim Brotherhood when Morsi was being ousted.
Meanwhile, ISIS, encouraged by its own
successes, begins to uproot some ancient church congregations in the Kurdish
part of Iraq.
Enough is enough, says Obama, and orders
limited airstrike on ISIS positions. If Americans are bombing one set of Arabs,
can their friends, the Israeli, resume bombardment of another set of Arabs?
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