Will
Gaza Ceasefire Lead To Hamas, Israel, US Meet In Cairo?
Saeed Naqvi
Does the 72 hour ceasefire in the three
week long conflict in Gaza brokered by the UN and US advance peace? Just as I
write this comes news that the Palestinians have captured an Israeli soldier.
Has the ceasefire collapsed? I am keeping my fingers crossed.
Even though the UN’s credibility is
bruised, UN agencies are gamely trying to do their bit. The UN Human Rights
Council by condemning Israel last week for “disproportionate use of force in
Gaza” must have embarrassed the US. It was the solitary country which opposed
the resolution. Even its European allies abstained. India voted with the 29
members supporting the resolution.
US Secretary of State John Kerry was in
New Delhi talking to External Affairs Minister, Sushma Swaraj, when the
humanitarian ceasefire was announced. Even while talking to his Indian
counterpart, he kept half an eye on the critical situation in Gaza.
In the current “Operation Protective
Edge”, Israel and its backers are facing a peculiar problem. The Western Media,
which fudges issues in favour of Israel, is not carrying as much credit with
the audiences globally.
The reason for the diminishing
credibility of the mainstream media is the exponential growth of social media.
The sanitized version of events that was dished out to US audiences, for
instance, of what their country (or Israel) was doing in various theatres of
conflicts, is now being replaced by the real time narratives of the parallel
media, the new websites, blogs.
Israeli bombardment of Gaza has been
brutal. But if you watch the main TV channels, the effort is to focus on
Ukraine, Ebola virus, Boko Haram and the shooting war in Tripoli. When it
becomes impossible to keep away from Gaza, appears Wolf Blitzer with
explanatory discussions tilted one way. Bring into focus that blood soaked
child or women buried beneath the debris of the school which was their shelter,
and the anchor cleverly shifts the guilt onto, well, the “blame game”. Which
means that the rockets fired from the vicinity of a school invited a massive
Israeli retaliation which killed 16 sleeping children, or even the very people
leading the humanitarian response. But it is Hamas rockets, after all, which
invited Israeli bombardment. The story is thus balanced. In this “balance” is
the fudge which is beginning to pall. Alternative narratives, which reveal
quite the opposite, are gaining in credibility.
Not a good time for the US image
anywhere in West Asia.
Remember Hillary Clinton waving her hand
in February 2012 asking Bashar al Assad to “get out of the way”. Assad is still
around. Again, her variation on Vini Vidi Vici – “I came, I saw and he died” in
Tripoli. This statement of her’s was accompanied by brutal images of Qaddafi
being gored to death.
Even accepting that was a moment of
American triumph, how does one square the boast with the murder of the US
ambassador in Benghazi? Or, endless conflict now centered around Tripoli?
The Islamic state of Iraq and Syria, the
Caliphate being declared by Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in the Sunni parts of Iraq,
contiguous with parts of Syria: is this the trophy of the US invasion of Iraq
in 2003?
Even on the “war of choice” in
Afghanistan, there is no demonstrable American grip on the situation. No one
quite knows how the audit of votes will be conducted to satisfy the contending
candidates, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah. In any case, the date of US
departure from Kabul has already been advanced to 2016. In other words, US
troops will eventually depart only on the next US President’s watch.
This is the general state of play when
Kerry has immersed himself into the latest Israeli – Hamas spat. The Egyptian
peace proposal of July 15, was rejected by Hamas because the Palestinian group
was not consulted by Cairo. The proposal urged Hamas to stop its rockets being
fired at Israel. But it did not address Hamas demand for ending the Israeli
blockade.
Why has Hamas accepted the latest
ceasefire? Because this UN proposal is without conditions. During the 72 hour
respite from Israeli bombardment and Hamas’ teasing rocketing, delegations are
being assembled by the Israelis, Hamas and Fatah to congregate in Cairo to
discuss a more durable peace. Hamas will ask: what has Fatah done to deserve an
invitation? William Burns, US Deputy Secretary of State and Frank Lowenstein,
Kerry special envoy for West Asia, are on their way to Cairo. There is
speculation that Kerry himself may join the discussions. Difficult to believe
that an abrupt peace is possible.
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