Tentative
Ankara, Petrified Baghdad and Riyadh Ask: Are US Airstrikes Working?
Saeed Naqvi
The ISIS, plaguing many countries in
West Asia, made a symbolic assertion during Haj too. At the ritual stoning of
the devil at Mina, five kms to the East of Mecca, fluttered the black banner of
the Islamic State. The police said nothing.
Recently, The Independent in London
published an article giving a clue to ordinary Saudi reaction to IS. Patrick
Cockburn, the writer, has cited a study done by Dr. Fouad Khadem, of the Centre
of Academic Shia Studies in London.
Public discussions on sensitive issues
are not permitted in Saudi Arabia. Tweeting therefore has become a common
vehicle to sustain debates.
The messages Saudis have been sharing on
the Islamic State are fascinating.
When IS swept through Northern Iraq and Eastern
Syria, Mania bin Nasir al-Mani was pleased. “The great land of Allah belongs
neither to Kings nor nations. Those who deserve the Caliphate are those who
implement the Sharia of Allah on earth and on people. Apostates and traitors deserve
nothing but the sword.” Later al Mani joined the IS in Syria.
One Azfar Minfard declares. “No need for
IS to enter – our country is full of them (IS).” Fata al Arab is more emphatic:
“IS is on the Saudi borders, and its supporters inside Saudi Arabia are more
than its organized members and armed fighters.”
A revealing tweet is from Adil
al-Kalbany, a Wahabi Shaikh, who has for years led prayers as an Imam of the
Holy Shrine in Mecca. “IS is a Salafi (fundamentalist) offshoot – a reality we
should confront with transparency.”
Someone who calls himself “Arabic
Batman” suggests the radical remedy. “Kick al Saud out of the country.”
As soon as President Obama announced the
coalition of the willing to wage war against IS, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait,
Qatar, UAE, and Jordan instantly signed up. The next country had to seek
permission from Parliament before it joined – Great Britain, but only to bomb IS
in Iraq. Strange, isn’t it?
The tardiness with which the coalition
of willing nations is being erected contrasts sharply with the speed with which
non state actors have come together as ISIS – a hodge-podge of Islamists, ex
Baathists turned deeply religious in the their marginalized distress,
Naqshbandi Sufis, Muslim Brothers, Salafists, Al Qaeda, Jabat al Nusra,
everyone without exception opposed to Islamic monarchies.
One would have thought that Morocco is
not prominent in the coalition of the willing because Rabat considers itself
remote from the IS theatre. The monarchy woke up with a start the other morning
when its security forces, in a coordinated action with Spain, busted an IS
recruitment cell.
While the cumulative power of all the
elements in the IS are focused on monarchies, principally Saudi Arabia,
elements in the IS have independent scores to settle with regimes in Baghdad,
Ankara and sub groups fighting the central authority in these states.
The IS, which mutated from the civil war
in Syria, first indentified groups seething with local anger. The famous
occupation of Mosul, which boosted the prestige of the IS as a formidable
force, would not have been possible without painstaking ground work.
Abu Bakr al Baghdadi was able to find an
ally at the highest echelons of the Nineveh Province. Mosul is its capital. The
Governor, Atheel Nujaifi, handed over the keys of Mosul to al Baghdadi an act of
splendid treachery. He arranged for a most orderly takeover of Mosul by the
Caliphate.
Nujaifi had longstanding grievances. He
had for year been trying to carve out Mosul as a Sunni dominated city
surrounded by Kurds including 3,50,000 of a minority tribe called the Yazidis.
Mosul and Erbil happen to be just a
little north of the 36th parallel beyond which Western Forces had
established a security zone after the first Gulf war to encourage Kurdish
refugees to return to Iraq.
This exactly is what Nujaifi was seething
with rage about. He handed over the battle to the IS. This one move created
turbulence in the Kurdish north of Iraq which the Americans had tranquilized with
a No Fly Zone during Saddam’s rule.
The alacrity with which Obama announced
air strikes against the IS was to protect assets in Kurdish Iraq where
Israelis, Turks and Americans have been doing reasonable business in recent
decades. The swiftness with which the Gulf Sheikhs lined up dictated the next American
priority. Saudi Arabia had to be protected. Without a strong Saudi Arabia in
the region, Israel would be a lonesome presence. That is why the US is talking of
“decades” long presence in the region. Whatever else the IS may do they must not
lurch towards Saudi Arabia. The US will stand at the gate like supreme bouncers.
But an extended US stay will create the inevitable political backlash – exponential
anti Americanism.
Shias from Mosul clambered onto their
cars and trucks and drove 450 kms to Karbala and Najaf. Between these two
pilgrim centre, the 120 kms route is lined big halls as halting stations for pilgrims.
These are tearing at the seams with Shia refugees who do not know where to turn
for help since there is very little government on view in Baghdad. The “all inclusive”
government of Haider al Abadi is, on the face of it not governing.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan
of Turkey is scripting his own tragedy of indecision, rather like the Prince of
Denmark. Everyone in the region, without exception, are keeping their fingers crossed.
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