Iran: No Cold War With China But Win, Win For All
Saeed
Naqvi
I don’t exactly
gasp but am puzzled by the indifference with which the media has treated two fascinating
Indo-Iranian stories. Now that Indo-Iranian relations are set to improve after
crucial agreements signed in Tehran by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and
President Hassan Rouhani, the anecdotes should be shared.
During his
journey to Iran in 1932, Gurudev Rabindranath Tagore (1861-1941) made a
request: he was keen to visit the tomb of the great Persian Sufi poet, Hafez
(1326-1390) at Shiraz.
A reading room
attached to the shrine, has a cornice on which is settled a remarkable
photograph, the size of a pocket book. It shows Tagore at the tomb, with a book
of Hafez’ verses open in front of him.
I have been to
the shrine with Prime Ministers Rajiv Gandhi, and Atal Behari Vajpayee. They
were both fascinated by the great poets, representing two cultures, separated
by six centuries, captured in one photograph. There was a great deal of loud
thinking: life size copies of the photographs can adorn Indo-Iranian cultural
centres, and perhaps the two embassies. So far, nothing has happened. Perhaps
Mamata Banerjee in Kolkata would take interest.
The second story
concerns Ayatullah Khomeini’s roots in the Shia enclave of Kuntoor, near Bara
Banki, in the heart of what was once Awadh. After the Shah’s fall, there was a
search on for new contacts in Tehran. Atal Behari Vajpayee, then Minister for
External Afffairs, asked me if I knew Khomeini’s clan in Kuntoor. I did.
Maulana Agha Rhui Abaqati soon materialized in South Block. He was enlisted as
a guide to a delegation consisting of socialist leader and Vice Chairman
Planning Commission, Ashoke Mehta and senior diplomat Badruddin Tayyabji. When
the trio reached Ayatullah Khomeini in Gumran, outside Tehran, there was
something of any anti climax. The reception to the delegation was cold. Abaqati
in fact got a earful from Khomeini himself.
It turned out
that the “young Islamic Revolution” was eager not to publicize the Supreme
leader’s “foreign” roots. Opposition to Khomeini among the clergy would exploit
it.
Against this
background, Iranian ambassador Gholam Reza Ansari’s intervention at a seminar
in New Delhi’s Leela hotel in 2014 was quite remarkable. The Ambassador cited
Imam Khomeini’s roots in Awadh as proof of ancient ties between the two
countries. This was a major shift. Between the debacle faced by the Indian
delegation in 1979 and 2014, the Iranian revolution had travelled a long
distance. It felt secure enough to admit that Imam Khomeini ancestry could now
be traced to India.
The point I am
making here is a simple one: schools of Iranian studies have mushroomed in the
West, placing every aspect of Shia scholarship under a microscope. Here, in and
around Lucknow, is incontrovertible evidence of linkages between Indian centres
of Shia scholarship and rest of the world. Libraries with rare books lie in utter
neglect. Who knows, this astounding lack of interest may end in this new phase
of accelerated relations between the two countries. Cultural collaboration is
an important part of the agreements.
Iranians have
been spreading out a range of maps before diplomats in Tehran. “It’s a win, win
for all”, they say.
Soon after Prime
Minister Narendra Modi’s very purposive visit, Japanese Prime Minister Shinto
Abe’s officials are locked in discussion with their Iranian counterparts to
prepare a script for Abe’s visit to Tehran in September. The development of
Chabahar port will be an item on his agenda.
Pundits
preoccupied with China and Pakistan will say: this is part of the US “pivot to
Asia” in which, they hope, Iran too will be roped in. But the “win, win for
all” chant coming out of Tehran suggest a more nuanced look at China’s
anxieties particularly in the South China Sea.
“In periods of
hostility, their passage through the straits of Malacca can be choked” said an
Iranian diplomat. The Gawadar port at the mouth of the Persian Gulf is a key
element in the Chinese ambitious One Belt – One Road concept. It frees them of
their total dependence on Malacca. Iranian diplomats insist that Japanese
interest in Chabahar need not be seen in adversarial terms. The distance
between Gawadar and Chabahar, it is point out, is only 150 kms. “Win, win for
all” goes the chant after the recent agreements.
These agreements
have been signed with an Iran everybody is wooing. The difference this time is
that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has actually signed agreements after
considerable preparation. But there still remains a fly in the ointment. The
parallel road and rail links via Afghanistan, which are central to the Chabahar
agreement, will remain unimplementable unless there is peace in Afghanistan.
This should be a worry.
Americans have
been threatening to pack their bags in Afghanistan since 2009. But their desire
to leave was, in retrospect, seen to have been half hearted. Several factors
were not allowing Afghanistan to be at peace with itself.
Outsiders have
been reluctant to notice an undercurrent in Pushtoon society: the Durrani,
Ghilzai tensions. This needs explanation. When Noor Mohammad Taraki, an afghan
communist, took over as Prime Minister in 1978, an epoch making change took
place.
By seizing power,
after killing President Mohammad Daud Khan, the communist parties, Khalq and
Parcham, had upturned the Afghan feudal structure in many ways. For the first
time in 200 years, Durranis had yielded power to Ghilzais. Like the late Mullah
Omar, most of the Taleban leadership are Ghilzais. The power structure put
together in Kabul with US help, whether Hamid Karzai or Ashraf Ghani, happen to
be part of the old ruling class: Durranis. If this 38 year old tension is ever
to soften, Ghilzais will have to be decisively in power in Kabul. Is there a
non Taleban route to this end?
For the American
presence, however depleted, the port city of Karachi remains indispensable for
logistics. The convoy route is seldom far from Taleban strongholds – Quetta or
Kandahar.
Even after a
considerable drawdown of troops, the US is unlikely to give up its half a dozen
or so major bases. I wonder if pundits have spotted American determination to keep
some presence in Afghanistan. They will never be too far from the world’s only
Islamic state “too nuclear” to be left to its devices. Even for limited bases,
Americans will always require continuous logistical help from Karachi.
Should Chabahar
construction actually accelerate, the port, roads and rail linked to it can be
used by everybody, Americans included. Americans finding alternative routes to
and from Afghanistan is no trifling matter. It will spell loss of power in
Islamabad. That is one of the reasons Chabahar will be a game changer.
Tehran is aware
of all the contradictions with Islamabad. That is why both Supreme leader
Ayatullah Ali Khameini and President Hassan Rouhani never gave up the chant: it
is a “win, win for all”; agreements are “against” nobody.
To underpin this
“win, win”, Iranian officials point to an already existing rail link between
Zahedan and Quetta which can be easily spruced up and extended should Pakistan
so desire.
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