US Congress Must Block Trump Selling For A Handful
Of Silver
Saeed
Naqvi
Who would have
imagined that the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria on the Latin
Bridge in Sarajevo in June, 1914 would signal the beginning of the First World
War. The conflicting empires and the balance of power were so precariously
positioned that an assassination triggered the war.
Today Syria,
Gaza, Iran, Jordan, Yemen, Israel, US, Russia, UK, France, Turkey, Qatar,
Russia, US – all are on edge, any ignition can flare up. There is a temptation
to exaggerate the aftermath of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s macabre
dismemberment with bone saws and eventual liquefaction in acid in the Saudi
consulate in Istanbul. Yet, a plausible scenario can be constructed that
powerful interests, determined to protect the embattled Crown Prince, Mohammad
bin Salman will go to any lengths to save him. Any diversionary adventure will
do. This diversion will not be easy now though that the US Congress is deeply
involved and is already reacting to Trump’s insensitivity. Most unexpectedly,
there is egg on MBS’s face in Argentina where he has turned up ostensibly to
attend the G20 summit. Ostensibly, because his purpose is to plead with leaders
and soften Turkish President, Tayyip Erdogan who has, drip by drip, been leaking
embarrassing intelligence details implicating MBS with the murder.
An Argentinian
Prosecutor has taken up the case against MBS for alleged crimes against
humanity, war in Yemen and the Khashoggi murder. Advocacy group Human Rights
watch had petitioned Argentinian authorities to proceed against MBS when he
turns up for the summit. It is terrible publicity.
Israel Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made MBS the central column in his West Asian
architecture and will go to any lengths to protect him. Towards this end he
could embark on risky, diversionary expeditions. Netanyahu was the first one to
warn President Trump.
He completely
glossed over the Khashoggi murder. It was immaterial to him whether MBS was
guilty or not. The cardinal point for him was that the Crown Prince is an
indispensable “strategic ally”. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo may well have
taken the cue from him. Pompeo wrote in the Wall Street Journal:
“The Trump
administration’s efforts to rebuild US-Saudi partnership isn’t popular in the
salons of Washington, where politicians of both parties have long used the
Kingdom’s human-rights record to call for the alliance’s downgrading. The
October murder of Saudi national Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey has heightened the
Capitol Hill caterwauling and media pile on.” It is a cunning draft, implying
that the Washington elite was always averse to the Saudis and that the Khashoggi
episode has only provided some grist to the mill. The thrust of the article is
straightforward: a malignant power, Iran, has to be neutralized with MBS’s help
– murder or no murder.
Most of the
wordage is directed against Iran which according to Kissinger (quoted by
Pompeo) is a “cause, not a nation”. To impede the advance of this “cause”, MBS
was an essential requirement.
The tone of
the defence is not that Saudi-US relations must be preserved at all cost. The
unstated emphasis is that MBS has to be protected within Saudi Arabia vis a vis
other possible aspirants.
It was to
snuff out this narrative that Saudi Foreign Minister Abdel al-Jubeir invited
BBC’s Lyse Doucet to spell out the Kingdom’s red line. “Any speculation on the
Keeper of the Holy Shrines King Salman and the Crown Prince will not be
tolerated.”
To save MBS,
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi personally pleaded with Trump. It must
ofcourse be remembered that a panic stricken MBS had personally turned up in
Cairo to plead his case.
All manner of
speculations are rife but one possibility stands out starkly: should the
world’s power centres allow Saudi impunity to pass, the next phase in West Asia
will be frightening, because tracks have to be swiftly covered. Khashoggi
forgotten preferably in the din of some military action. Already, US Defence
Secretary Gen. James Mattis has met chiefs of GCC Armed Forces in Kuwait and
Bahrain. These are two GCC countries with substantial Shia populations. Sports
exchanges have been reported between Israel and Oman – and other GCC countries.
Recently Arab
diplomats in Europe have been openly discussing such subjects as: does the Arab
League serve a purpose? GCC came into being soon after the Iranian revolution
of 1979. Can it be wound up. What is being proposed is a tidy division of the
Arab World into Sunni versus Shia. The project is as old as the hills. The last
I heard Henry Kissinger and the late Zbigniew Brzezinski publicly talk about the
idea was at the Nobel Peace Prize Forum in Oslo in December 2016. The great
merit in giving primacy to the Shia-Sunni faultline is supposed to be that it
will subsume the Palestinian story.
How naïve this
line of thinking is has been stressed by, among a host of others, one of the
more experienced princes in Saudi public life: Prince Turki al Faisal. He was
Intelligence Chief, Ambassador to US and UK. He has repeatedly warned the
authors of Shia-Sunni faultline that the thesis was self-defeating: there are
sizeable and influential Shia populations in most GCC countries. Nearly 70% of
Bahrain, 40% of Kuwait and 15% of Saudi Arabia are Shia. Indeed Saudi Shias are
concentrated in the oil rich Eastern Province, linked to Shia majority Bahrain
by a 37 kms causeway. Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen are all Shia majority states.
There is a
sort of amnesia against the entire Shia Fatimid dynasty which ruled most of North
Africa and founded the city of Cairo in the 10th century. The name
of the ousted ruler of Tunisia, Zine El Abidin Ben Ali is of Fatimid
extraction. No Saudi will ever keep that name.
Palermo, the
capital of Sicily, was once the seat of Ismaili Shia power, where Moharram
processions were common from the 10th to 12th century.
Tariq Ali’s novel “A Sultan in Palermo” covers this period.
Over 20 years
ago, in his elegant salon on the Nile, Sid Ahmad, distinguished writer and
public intellectual, confused me all the more on the question of Shia and Sunni
in Cairo. He said, “Many in this metropolis follow the dictum: Sunna bil deen;
Shia bil hawa” (Sunni by faith and Shia by culture).
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